As we found out by looking at the final outcome, it didn't really matter who ended up being the vice presidential nominees in 2008. It usually doesn't, but it is always something to talk about during the natural down periods of a presidential campaign. However, this year was a little different in the respect that a lot of attention was paid to one of the vice presidential candidates.

As someone who backed the Sarah Palin pick and discussed the possibility of it way back when, my natural instinct is to defend it. With everything as it was at the time of the choice, looking back I still would have been for it. She was the best of the bunch.

Look at the others that John McCain was considering: Joe Lieberman. Tim Pawlenty. Tom Ridge. Mitt Romney. Lieberman, though he was a great solider for McCain would have enthused the base less than McCain and there is no evidence he would have brought in any crossover votes. Pawlenty? You think he could have made a difference? One of Tom Ridge's big selling points was that he could bring Pennsylvania into play. McCain lost by 11% there. Ridge maybe, and I stress maybe, could have helped marginally there. Not enough to make a significant impact, especially considering McCain did what he thought he had to in many Western PA counties. Romney could have been solid during the economic crisis that no one predicted, but people were still looking at the top of the ticket for answers, not the bottom. I also think the Democrats would have turned Romney into an "evil CEO" who was part of the problem. The hatred between McCain and Romney could not have been more clear during the GOP primary season. That really only left one pick at the time. McCain was trailing at the time, needed a huge splash, and had to hope to catch lightning in a bottle. He made his splash alright.

Could the initial roll out have been better? Yeah. Could she have performed better in a couple of interviews? Yeah. Team McCain tried to control her and script her way too much. They could have also been more effective at flipping her lack of experience back on Obama. But she did a lot to help McCain. He couldn't raise money. That problem was over in an instant. Palin drew crowds McCain could have only dreamed and people left her events fired up, again something McCain himself wasn't doing. People started volunteering. She was thrown right into the fire, but the surprise announcement was the only way to do it. Democrats were caught off guard and then genuinely scared after her convention speech. They were. You and I both know it. Hence the absolute savage treatment she got in the media (sorry, that is not what this post is about).

History will probably forget, but the McCain / Palin ticket was leading before Lehman Brothers fell and the Wall Street collapse started. Sarah Palin did her job and got the numbers to where they were. External events made it a moot point and made what may – may – have been a successful campaign powerless to do anything. Exit polls showed that those voters who said Palin was an important factor broke for McCain. Those for whom it wasn't went against him. Things would have turned out worse for the GOP if McCain had picked any of the above – by at least a couple million votes nationwide. In the end they didn't win, but Palin most certainly was not the reason. All the juvenile finger pointing by the McCain staff won't change that. It is both sad and infuriating that some people are out there spreading trash about Palin in order to try and save McCain or themselves.

As for Barack Obama, there really isn't second guessing to be had. He got almost 53% of the vote. As it turned out, he could have pretty much picked anyone on his short list and been okay. The Constitution said he had to pick someone to run with that was over 35 and not from the same state as him, so he did. Joe Biden tried his best a few times to throw a wrench into the big plan but the general mood and landscape prevented him from being a success in that regard.

There is a natural follow up to this post asking what is next for Governor Palin. In due course.

Some of you are just crazy. Buying tickets online for the upcoming Inauguration Day for thousands of dollars? Are you for real?

Let me fill you in – you can still attend the inauguration without a ticket. You just stand farther back on the Mall and don't have as good of a view and can't get that close. The parade is another thing you can do without a ticket. I've been to the last two events. 2001 was surreal because of the circumstances surrounding the election. It was also about as miserable as it could be out – 33 degrees and rain. Real fun to get there at like 8 AM and just stand there. There were a ton of scuffles along the parade route that year between Bush supporters and obnoxious protesters.. In 2005, it was kind of like whatever. For obvious partisan reasons, I will not be attending this go around. But it is a cool thing to attend in person. It is seeing history no matter who is being sworn in.

In 2001, we had to pick up the tickets the day before (like you have to do this year) and it couldn't have been more of a pain in the ass. If I remember correctly we got them from former Congressman Tom Sawyer's office. I got some in 2005 as well, though I don't remember how. They weren't really in that much demand. I think I just got them from the RNC.

The head of the committee, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, wants to prevent scalping of tickets to the historic event. Tickets are supposed to be distributed free through congressional offices, which have been overwhelmed with demands.

Senator, if I had them this year I would sell them for as much as I could get. It would be worth the drive out there to pick up the seats, sell them, and then leave. Then I would laugh.

Not a lot of sleep, not a lot to eat, and not a lot to say right now.

In Ohio, 2 U.S. House Seats were lost and one is still too close to call. The Democrats also took over the State House for the first time since 1994. Local candidates Rich Nero and Randy Cole both lost.

Summit County Republicans took a beating that everyone saw coming. A major beating. But Judge Spicer won and since that was one of two races party leadership actually cared about (other than County Engineer) they will try to claim success. Looking forward to that one.

Things could have been much worse in the U.S. Senate. Ted Stevens, Norm Coleman, and Gordon Smith are leading, and Saxby Chambliss looks headed to a run-off in Georgia as he fell just below 50%. Republicans should keep at least two of these seats and hopefully three. Went to bed thinking Coleman could not make up what he needed with only 2% of precincts left, but was pleasantly surprised to see he is ahead. Thoughts of Franken winning woke me up at least 3 times an hour. The Democrats had a once in a generation chance and so far have only gained 5 seats. That said, it is terrible that Republicans like Ted Stevens and Gordon Smith (outstanding vote not favorable to him) may win while John Sununu lost and Norm Coleman is fighting for his political life against some vile comedian.

Congratulations to Kyle and most other Democrats. Now that I know what the feeling of losing a presidential election is like, it isn't very pleasant. Kyle called me last night to offer his condolences. It was appreciated and showed his class. I do not like Barack Obama, I think he is a far left radical, and do not think he will be a good president. But he will be my president. Nothing bothered me more than when losers who hated Bush would say "he isn't my president." Yes, he was – and still is. And yes, Obama will be mine. And that I respect. I will oppose his polices but at the same time never forget that he was elected by a majority of Americans.

Once I get some food in me, I'll have more.

Seems like it wasn't too long ago we were watching the GOP Presidential Debate from the Reagan Library last fall (or at least I was). Now it is Election Day 2008.

I have Senator McCain coming up a bit short, but I am reluctant to believe the degree of change reflected in the polls this season. Turnout will be historic. GOP will match and exceed their turnout of 2004, but it won't be enough. Due to the early voting of Democrats and that whole push, a large turnout tomorrow actually favors McCain. I truly believe McCain is making a late surge that is not being detected by most polls, similar to the one Al Gore made in 2000. Obama being up by 8 or 9 or even more doesn't pass the common sense test to me. I have argued all year the polls are fundamentally flawed, so there is no backing out of that argument now, not that I am trying. To do it would be blatantly dishonest and something John Zogby would do. I honestly thought the polls would be much closer headed into the final days. Pollsters survive on reputation and it looks like they have decided as a group what the turnout model will be. My sense is that I will be dead on or way off. Either the party ID these pollsters are using, like Gallup at D +12 are wrong (highest since 1980, D +4 in 1996) or they see something that is correct that does not seem reasonable but really is.

As mentioned way back when, Obama's path to victory was through the West and Iowa. Anything else would be a bonus. That holds true more than ever today.

At some point in the last two weeks, people in the McCain camp were faced with a tough decision. There were two choices. Both propositions assumed a close election similar to 2004, which was the only way to operate. The first was to cede Pennsylvania and try for 2 of 3 in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The second was to marginally pay attention the West and go all in for Pennsylvania. They obviously chose the latter. That tells me that New Mexico is lost and they felt winning both Colorado and Nevada was less probable than pulling the Keystone State Upset. The people running the campaigns have much better information than me or anyone reading this blog. Their decisions aren't made on whims. They know what is going on. People always like to say "well if only candidate X had spent one more day in state Y maybe things would have been different." We just don't know. They do. Obama has done everything possible to alienate voters across Pennsylvania. Maybe, just maybe, McCain can do it. They seem strangely confident about it. I also will add that pulling out of Michigan was the right thing to do. It wasn't going to happen there.

I have also argued all the year the numbers just aren't there for McCain in Pennsylvania. You have no idea how badly I wanted to call PA for McCain. When push came to shove I just couldn't do it. It would be going back on everything I have said. Though no doubt he is gaining there, it just seems dubious he can get a larger % than Bush did in 2004 there.

McCain will win North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, and Ohio. I also see him winning Virginia in a nail biter. Some consider that an upset, but I believe that Virginia more than any other state has been polled wrong. For months now, the American people have been told how they will vote; the press and the pollsters already supposedly know. We will find out if they were right or not. There is no historical model to base what will happen tomorrow on. There are many variables, small groups, and sub-groups that I strongly feel are going undetected. In 2004, the opposite was true. It couldn't have been easier to look at polling data determine if it was accurate or not. Republicans silently are angry about the media, treatment of the candidates, and being told it is over. Republicans will vote. This will be not be 2006. Nor is the mood as anti-Republican as it was in 2006.

For McCain, if the race is indeed tight, the key for him is to be close in early reporting states so his voters in the West aren't discouraged from voting. For example, it will be 6:00 in Western FL and 4:00 in Nevada when the polls close in Virginia. Lots of people will be either on their way or getting ready to go vote after work. Will these people say the hell with it if the results are not encouraging? Fully expect the MSM to be in full 2004 mode, calling Obama states ASAP while sitting on McCain states (2004: South Carolina "too close to call") as long as possible. The optimism among rank and file Republicans is about as high as could be expected. People are believing in the seemingly impossible. Speaking for myself, I feel like I am as optimistic as I can be.

Obama wins IA, CO, NM, NV and takes 278 electoral votes to the 260 of John McCain. Either the vast majority of the Eastern / Midwest Bush states hold or they fall like dominoes. My map works on the model that they hold.

Here is hoping I am wrong with the overall winner. But if not, I will sulk for a few days, maybe a little bit longer, and then start to get focused on 2010. In 2004, losing was not an option. There was only a 3 or 4 day span where I even entertained the idea that we might lose. I have accepted defeat is possible in 2008. To be exact, it was the night of October 10 that the reality of losing first really hit me. They say that acceptance is the first step. That has already taken place. But until multiple networks confirm it is over and John McCain delivers a concession speech then this race is one we can win. All I can do now is vote later this afternoon and hope for the best. When I finally wake up Wednesday morning, life will go on win or lose. Benjamin Franklin once said that he did not like to get his hopes up because he would prefer to be pleasantly surprised rather than bitterly disappointed. Couldn't have said it better myself………

Mark Salter, senior aide to McCain is upbeat. Blowing smoke or for real? Any McCain backer looking for a glimmer of hope can take comfort in the last Rasmussen state polls from today. That is about all the good news out there.

Going to disagree with what Kyle said below about undecideds. My sense is that if you haven't determined you are voting for Obama by now, you are not going to. He might already have what he needs. In my eyes, most of the undecideds are either going to break for McCain or have already decided to vote for him and just aren't saying so. The election has actually become a referendum on Obama.

Just wrapped up my map. It is closer than most people have it. It will be posted in a few hours. It doesn't look a whole lot different than my original preview and my second look and third at things.

There is nothing really to do now except speculate.

Newest Mason-Dixon polls: Ohio M 47 O 45, Florida O 47 M 45, Nevada O 47 M 43, Colorado O 49 M 47, Missouri M 47 O 46, North Carolina M 49, O 46, Virginia O 47, M 44. Pennsylvania is included in the chart, even though it was released a couple days back; it had Obama up 4. Mason-Dixon is one of the best state pollsters, if not the best. Their 2004 record was pretty damn good. They don't really push undecideds, as you probably notice. I see good news for McCain in these polls. If he gets most of the late deciders (I think he will get at least 65%) he is really in pretty good shape.

Today's trackers shifted towards McCain a little bit. He still needs to get closer. I was not one of the people touting Zogby's Friday poll that had McCain up. He makes stuff up to grab headlines. In the last three days his samples have been (approx.): Obama up 9, McCain up 1, Obama up 10. So there are three options here: A) Obama's two great days were outliers, B) McCain's one great day was an outlier, C) John Zogby is a bad pollster who manipulates data to get attention. No real tracking poll should show swings like that.

Senator Government: I will bankrupt you if build a coal plant. Way to look out for America. I hope people in Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania hear that. Would he also bankrupt those who currently operate coal plants, which produce over a third of our electricity? I assume yes. You think energy prices are high now? Obama wants prices higher to punish us for "bad behavior." What else has this guy said in San Francisco that he thought none of us peasants would ever hear?

Senator Government: No press conferences until Wednesday, when he presumes he will have won. Not a surprise, he doesn't do them anymore. Of course neither does Joe the Dumber. You know who does talk to the press? Governor Palin. Thank you, Senator Obama for being so gracious for talking to us then. We will all wait.

Senator Government: I didn't know my aunt who defied a deportation order and donated to my campaign was in the country illegally. The only question seems to be how this information got out; the fact about her being an illegal is of no consequence. Ladies and gentlemen, our media!!! I wonder if it would have taken the MSM to find out if Sarah Palin's cousin's ex-boyfriend had overstayed his work visa. Probably we would have known sometime in late September.

Thought this was good: Those who believe Obama's claims that he will reduce 95 percent of Americans' taxes, while he pays for near-universal health care, subsidizes clean energy, expands our military commitment in Afghanistan, adds to mass transit and highway infrastructure, etc., etc., are living in a dream world.

Final Senate picks tonight. Final Electoral Map late, late, late Monday night.

1) Why is Obama going to Iowa? McCain and Palin are going too. Is something going on there that no one seems to know? You don't spend time there if it is not competitive. There aren't bluffs the weekend before the election.
2) Pennsylvania is closing in the polls (latest results, Obama up 4, 5, and 7). Does McCain really have any chance there?
3) Is Colorado really lost for the GOP?
4) Will Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling have the nerve to show his face after his Democrat push polls are proven way off base, win or lose for Obama?
5) The Bradley Effect. Will there be one?
6) Will the Obamamerical have an impact? Positive? Negative? None?
7) Is Sarah Palin going to get more people to the polls for McCain? Or will she end up hurting him?
8.) Will I actually be motivated to wash my car that couldn't be more disgusting right now?
9) Turnout: closer to 2000 or 2004….or even 1996? Does the enthusiasm that McCain and Sarah have generated lately on the trail pan out at the polls?
10) Despite all polls showing Senator Government winning Virginia, can he really win there?
11) How many fake voters will show up in Ohio?
12) How in the hell can a party who controls Congress and has an approval rating in the single digits be poised to gain seats?
13) Are people in Minnesota really going to elect Al Franken? Can John Sununu come back in New Hampshire?
14) Will any Summit County Republican who is identified as a Republican on the ballot and running county wide win their race?
15) America: Ready to elect a guy who makes Jimmy Carter look like the founder of the Heritage Foundation? Or will people take one last look this weekend and decide they aren't ready to go to the radical left?

So we can do this? Trackers leaned back towards Obama today, though looking at the daily sample breakdown, tomorrow things should head back McCain's way. +5, +5, +7, +3, +3 for Obama. CBS will release a poll showing The One up 11 tonight. Ignore. Still a 3.5 to 4 point race right now with some statistical noise bouncing things around.

I am going to be honest. I think we still have a decent chance, below 50%, but it is there. I really think the GOP base is going to come out in 2004 numbers and despite MSM spin, early voting numbers do look good for us. Just not sure if a repeat of 2004 will be enough. By this time last election it was pretty cut and dry and predictions were easy. I am not any closer today than I was about two months ago this time around and pressure is mounting for my final map. Some states he needs to win are just looking tough (Colorado and Virginia; far more concerned about the first). You know that. However, this election is nowhere near over. If Democrats want to think that, let them. The American people still get to have their say. We are in striking distance and that is all you can really ask for right now. The polls are oversampling Democrats, that I am sure of. Obama will not get "undecideds." The central question is if he needs them at all.

What do you think? McCain have a chance? Or he is destined to lose? Are an untold number of Americans fed up with the media and the coronation?

Well, I think it is time you know who I am voting for next Tuesday. I looked up my sample ballot at the Summit County BOE site. I didn't include local judges; they don't run on party affiliation and I don't feel like publicly telling a judge I decided to vote against them, you know?

President: McCain / Palin, Attorney General: Mike Crites
Congress, District 13: Dave Potter, State Rep, District 41: Randy Cole
County Executive: Jim Laria, Prosecuting Attorney: Undecided
Clerk of Courts: Mary Stormer, Sheriff: Drew Alexander
County Fiscal Officer: John Donofrio, Engineer: Greg Bachman
County Council, District 1: Bill Roemer, State BOE, District 7: Will leave blank
State Supreme Court: Evelyn Stratton, will leave blank O'Connor / Russo
9th District Appeals: William Wellemeyer

State Issues: 1, yes; 2, no; 3, yes; 5, no; 6, no

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. -Secretary Rumsfeld

That was one of three things I wrote down to say this morning on the radio – in reference to the polling. Of the three points I wanted to make, I made none. That quote really hits home this year when it comes to the polling. So much fluidity, so many small groups and then so many sub-groups within those groups. There really isn't an election from the past you can use to predict this one.

My friend Dave over at NixGuy notes the tracking polls are getting closer. I was indeed shocked to see McCain down 3 in Rasmussen today. Gallup is 3. GWU/Battleground is 3. IBD/TIPP is 3. Zogby is 5. That is a trend. A little bit closer than the Obama +15 we see from places like Newsweek and Pew. I am a little surprised they weren't too embarrassed to release that trash. Does anyone legitimately think Obama is up by 15, let alone 10? Still, McCain is going to need to draw even closer (and get Obama down to at least an average of 48.5) in these last few days to have a decent chance. As undecideds start breaking his way, here is betting that the race continues to tighten, though very slowly in a kind of "two steps forward, one step back" kind of way. It is very probable that the remaining undecideds are going to disproportionately break the way of Senator McCain.

Now the argument is "well, what about the states?" Admittedly, the state polling for McCain does not look very good. But for whatever reason, state polling does lag behind national polling (second point I wanted to make). No one has ever concretely proved why this is. But it does happen. My opinion is that there is some kind of "information theory" going on – where people generally only talk politics with like minded people and read sites / magazines that report news they want to hear. It takes awhile, even in this age of Gore's internet, for news to filter on down to everyone. Just a guess. Yours would be as good as mine.

Third point I wanted to make this morning on 1590 but didn't was just about the general optimism. People on my side just seem to be feeling a little bit better than they were even last week. Hearing it more and more.

Ten Reasons Why McCain Can Still Win. By J. Rubin. #'s 4, 7, and 9 are the ones I think that are making the most difference in the closing polls.

Preview: Obama has an infomercial tonight. I do not care about it. However, I did say that if Game 6 of the World Series was played, I would not watch due to Obama taking over the networks. Thankfully, tonight it is still Game 5, so on a technicality I can watch.

Pew: John McCain is getting more negative media coverage than Barack Obama, according to a study conducted by the Pew Research Center. The study, released Wednesday, examined 2,412 campaign stories from 48 news outlets during the six weeks from the end of the conventions through the final presidential debate. The results: While the candidates are receiving equal amounts of coverage, 59% of stories about McCain were “decidedly negative in nature,” while only 14% were positive.

For The One: 36% positive, 35% mixed, 14% negative.

Media darling no more for Senator McCain. What a major surprise. Doing some quick rudimentary math, that means Obama gets treated positively 250% more often than does John McCain. Of course, I wonder how much skewing samples in their polls leads to more negative coverage for McCain? No word on whether Senator Government who raised $150 million in September will upset some media members by charging them to cover his election night (hopefully ruined) party. Though some sort of tithe could be warranted to cover such a figure. Also no word on whether this will distract them from investigating Joe the Plumber instead of Obama himself. Have we found out how many days of school he missed in middle school yet? Whatever. I can't believe I am wasting my time writing about media bias. If you can't see it, I don't know what to say. A study probably wasn't needed to determine this; anyone could have just sat in front of a TV for 30 minutes, flipped around, and reached the same conclusion. Unless you are a card carrying member of the MSM that is.

Didn't they go hard after Hillary because she was the early front runner and they "had to do their job?" Now Obama is ahead. If he and McCain each visited the same school on the same day we see headlines like this: "Obama Takes Time to Grace Children with Presence" and "McCain Spreads Old People Germs to Innocent School Kids." Obviously I made that up, but you get the drift.

This was also in the story: "The big question; are the media pro-Obama? — was not answerable by the data, the authors said." Huh? Seriously? Yeah, I am whining now. Nothing I can do about it really except complain. So I will.

On a side note, while at the McCain / Palin rally Wednesday at Green High School, I was sitting in the press area (yes, I see the hypocrisy here – but it is better to get a nice folding chair than to stand for 4 hours). Let me tell you, people at McCain rallies do not like the media. Can't say I blame them. As far as the rally goes, the report says around 15,000 were there. As stated before, I am bad at estimating crowds, but that seems a little high to me. Once I get motivated to upload my pictures from my cheap camera I'll put up my post on the event. But for now I'll tell you I wish they had that new field turf installed at their stadium when we played them there; would have been cool to play on that stuff once. Ahhh, Green Memorial Stadium, home to my first ever football game (8th grade). We lost 8-6, I still remember. Life has come full circle. NO GUM ALLOWED ON FIELD. Some kid (presumably a Green HS student) was on gum patrol and told me if I didn't spit out my gum he would root for the Rays in the World Series (I was wearing my Phillies hat of course). I threw it out. True story.

On a second side note, interesting article here. Should candidates be citing blogs on their mailers?

After seeing some gains in the trackers the last few days, McCain seems to have lost that ground and maybe a little bit more today and yesterday (Powell Bounce?). A long time ago (it seems) I posted my look at the Electoral Map. Without going as much in depth as last time, here is where I see things. This is based on my opinion that McCain currently trails by around 4.5 to 5 points. Obviously if Obama ends up winning by 8 or whatever, the below is all moot. He will sweep these states. I do not think that will be the case.

Start with the Bush 286. Most people are already giving Iowa (7) to Obama, which makes sense. Obama started his journey there (for president only; political career at the Ayers house) and McCain hates ethanol. Iowa going R in 2004 was kind of an aberration; it is at it's roots Democratic. So that gets you to 279. Everyone is on the Obama has New Mexico (5) sewn up bandwagon, and though I am not quite sold on that, for arguments sake we will say he wins there. Republicans are down to 274. That is where we will begin.

Let me start out by saying that I think at the end of the day, Florida (27) stays in the GOP hands. I was very worried about FL last week, but I am cautiously optimistic now. Indiana (11) will go to McCain. Ohio (20), I just don't know. I say McCain will win here, partly based on what I am hearing from "knowledgeable" people and partly because I want him to. It is close and doesn't seem to want to switch. Democrats always over poll in North Carolina (15), and I think this year will end up being the same. It will be tight there, but look for McCain to pull through at the end. My advice there would to be not go again and hope for the best; going to NC this late shows weakness. Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) scare me more than Ohio and Florida right now. I keep looking at trends and registration and everything I can get my hands on about VA, and the poll numbers don't seem to match up. In my opinion, Obama needs turnout there over 85% to win. Same in Colorado. McCain has to win both. There were reports he had given up on Colorado, but I do not buy those. He will be there later this week. Nevada (5) is another one of those states that will almost certainly go the way the country does. From what I hear from someone who supposedly knows (great sourcing there) McCain is not doing as well as he needs right now in Washoe County (Reno) which I singled out way back when as the key to Nevada. Missouri (11) is a place I have no handle on right now.

There has been a lot of speculation on McCain banking on winning Pennsylvania (21). I hope that is not the case. I have been adamant basically since this blog started that McCain faces a major uphill climb there. All recent public polls bear that out. Rumors are everywhere that the internals of both campaigns show it close. I tend to think it is a lot closer than public polling because both sides are there so much, which is the main indicator of what they really think. Nothing has really changed to make me think McCain can win here, especially looking at the national polling. Yes, it is true that a win here can offset other losses, but it is certainly nothing to count on. He made 4 stops there on Tuesday alone. We are at the point, 13 days out, where you can't be spending time in places just for show. Interpret McCain's schedule as you will.

Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10) seem to be off the table right now. McCain, I think, has a reasonable chance in New Hampshire (4), probably somewhere around 40% or so. There aren't any other Kerry states even on the radar right now.

I plan on having my final prediction up on Monday November 3. Though I am certainly a cheerleader at the end of the day I value my accuracy more. I will call it as I see it, even if it hurts. But as of now, I really in my heart of hearts believe this race is closer than people think and the polls will tighten at the end. The GOP base will be there. I see it everyday. The undecideds, in my opinion, are really two separate groups right now – the real undecideds and those who are backing McCain but not showing up in the polls or saying for their own reason they haven't reached a choice yet. Obviously McCain will win the latter, and I also think he will win the bulk of the former for reasons explained in detail here a few times. There is an old saying that the side that says "the only poll that matters is the one on election day" is losing. Most times that ends up being correct. I don't need to tell you the reality of the situation as it looks right now.

On November 5th I will probably end up being either horrifically wrong or one of the few who was right all along as we wait for Colorado and Nevada to finish counting. And if I am wrong, I will be paying off bets for around a month. I have a bet with Eric from Plunderbund and now The Professor from Political Science 216. This is in addition to many others. I am poor, so McCain better win. Wait, I will get a tax cut aka welfare check if Obama wins! Maybe it will be alright.

Just got back from a weekend trip. A lot of posts to get up, but here are some odds and ends on the presidential election that is a 100% certainty for Obama according to Nancy Pelosi. Though it will be tough to win going against voters like this, as the Dispatch tells us.

Just got word that Vets for Freedom is going to run a few hundred thousand dollars' worth of TV ads in Ohio starting tomorrow. VFF is going to make a concerted effort to put the "minor" issue of the wars we're fighting back on the table, and apparently they have decided that Ohio is one of the few places where advocating for that issue will do the most good.

Powell endorses Obama. I know Kyle hit on it earlier. Would it have been better to get Powell's endorsement than not? Sure. I am not sure it matters really. Not sure who sits around and says "oh wow Colin Powell endorses Obama so I am going to vote for him too." I see that the Beacon endorsed Obama, as did the Plain Dealer. Maybe I'll reconsider! But back to Powell, I thought liberals didn't like him anymore after he "lied" to the United Nations in the run-up to Iraq. Looks like he is okay again.

Obama raised $150 million in September. It is impressive. It would be a lie to try and argue otherwise. McCain has to go out and say Obama is trying to buy the election, which he is, without looking like a whiner. It is a tough line to walk.

McCain and Palin to Green High School on Wednesday.

Biden: “Mark my words,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fund raisers Sunday. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.” That makes me feel good, since Biden said Obama wasn't ready to be president.

ACORN doesn't treat their employees well. Maybe a community organizer should stick up for them?

I am rooting for the Phillies in the World Series. Most people root for one team or the other. Obama roots for both. John Kerry's teams both lost in the playoffs – Manny Ortiz will not be going to the World Series with either the Dodgers or Red Sox.

Spent the weekend in Atlanta. Every year I attend the Decatur Beer Festival. Decatur is one of the liberal areas of Georgia where you feel like your car will get bashed in if you have a McCain sticker. 20% of the people there were wearing an Obama sticker or a shirt with his picture. It was scary. It really is a cult. I wonder if they are also registered to vote in Ohio.

More in a little bit.

CBS Radio Correspondent Barry Bagnato was in Akron this past week and I sat down with him for a few minutes to talk about the state of Ohio this year. Only one of my quotes made it into his article, which is here. I have the full audio, which I will try and get up soon.

Anyhow, I am feeling more optimistic right now than any time since our convention. Maybe it is false hope, maybe it isn't. Time well tell. But I feel like we are in the game. At this point, it is all you can ask for. Striking distance. 3-5 points. Very doable.

"There is no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area."
- Congressman Jack Murtha, D-Racist Area / 12th CD, PA. Here is the video of his statements.

People in this district…..I don't know why you keep voting for this guy. Actually, I do, it is all the pork he brings home to his gerrymandered district. 18 terms for this guy. He is the House version of Robert Byrd, minus being a former Klan leader. In the interview, Murtha also defends his slandering of 8 Marines, 7 of which have seen their charges dismissed, with one still waiting trial. Pork aside, don't people in his district get tired of listening to Murtha, especially now after he just insulted you.

Murtha is running against Lieutenant Colonel William T. Russell in 2008. Murtha needs to lose.

If there was ever a reason against gerrymandering, one just needs to take a look at the shape of Murtha's district. Ohioans take note. This is what will happen if the Democrats take control of the apportionment board and redraw the districts in their favor.

Powerline: I suppose Murtha deserves a certain amount of credit–Barack Obama waited until he was talking to friends in San Francisco to call Pennsylvanians racists, whereas Murtha insults them to their faces!

DEBATE: It is 4AM and I just finished watching the debate replay. McCain vowed to kick Obama's "you know what." He did. He kicked his ass, and I didn't say that the first two times. Hope I can say that here. And I hope it isn't too little too late. I could make 1000 points but how can Senator Government say it is true that every single McCain ad has been negative. That is flat out not true. It is scary that Obama can just sit there and casually lie about so many different things while on stage. Anyways, for those of us who have followed this campaign and supported McCain since he became the nominee, we are kind of wondering where this has been. My only complaint is that McCain still didn't do a good enough job making Obama look like the dare I say it, socialist that he is. But more so than the first two I have a feeling that McCain scored major points with the American people Wednesday night. McCain was on the offense. As always, we shall see. Pretty solid job by the moderator.

Line of the night, clearly: "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

19 days to go. It is the homestretch. It is here.

The Ohio blogosphere (one side of it) has really picked up the ACORN story. Rather than just rehash what they have said, here are just a few directly: Brain Shavings, WMD, Bizzy Blog. Tons of others too. This story is finally starting to break through in the MSM; they don't really have a choice at this point.

As Jim Geraghty said, "what would it take to get 'purple finger' rules here in the United States?" I never thought that would actually be a good idea, but the more I think about it……

Summit County Update: Talked to someone who would know last night. Out of the first 6100 ballots cast here, i.e. "early voters," it has not been good for Republicans as far as turnout goes. At least in early voting, Democrats are dominating. Of course, you can only vote once.?.?

Ben: Kyle and I sat down and talked about tonight's debate, the national horse race, two local Ohio House races, and one other big race that is more just on my radar. The video runs just under six minutes. I even wore a tie.

I don't know what to tell you. You can believe Obama is up 13 or 14 or whatever or you can choose to not believe it. I don't. I have never been a real conspiracy guy, but this is absurd. There is no way – no way – Obama is up by 14. There just isn't. This is yet another poll designed to influence and not reflect opinion. Everyone is reporting it – just witness NBC Nightly News breathlessly talking about it in the video below. Is this new poll comparable to the CBS poll that showed Bill Clinton something like 30 points ahead of Bob Dole a couple of weeks before the 1996 election? What about that CBS poll in 1984 that showed Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale tied a couple of weeks before the election? Is McCain currently ahead? No. I am a political optimist, not a pollyanna. The daily trackers are showing this around a 4-6 point race. I tend to think it is in between 4 and 5. That is still a deficit that is not easy to make up in three weeks time against a headwind (that was a hurricane last week). But it can be done. History shows us it can. Do liberals even think this poll is accurate?

This poll also tries to present as a reasonable scenario that there has been a 28 point swing to Obama in one week with Independents. If you think that is true, I have a nice beach front house in North Dakota that you might be interested in. I'll even cut you a deal.

Lastly, as another reminder, if my GOP friends needed one, a piece in the Weekly Standard by Terry Eastland – Night of the Living Constitution; Explaining the judicial consequences of an Obama presidency.

Wow. Everyone check their 401Ks. The Democratic Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 1000 points today! Like I said in the comments last night, McCain has seen the bottom. The economy, barring something very unforeseen, has hurt him as much as it can. It was a lot. It has to suck to see the stock market do well and know it could hurt your preferred candidate's chances. (Sorry my funny graphic stopped working, I had to delete it).

ACORN has been in the news, well everywhere, and now it is Ohio's turn again. I don't think this story is going away with one of the two candidates being involved with them. Cuyahoga County of all places wants to investigate.

3 of the 5 tracking polls closed for McCain today. Gallup went in The One's direction. Battleground stayed the same. Extremely accurate in 2004 IBD/TIPP started their daily tracker today. Obama +2. Yep, time to give up.

The replacement for the GOP's disgraced Mark Foley has his own problems. I like how Mahoney calls for an investigation of himself. Here's betting the "investigation" won't be completed until after Nov. 4.

And Obama wants a 90 day moratorium on home foreclosures. Why stop there? ACORN wants a year. Why have any at all? Pandering at it's best here.

Has anyone else noticed that the reporting of how many people are at a political rally has basically stopped? I wonder why that is. Maybe, just maybe, that is because McCain/Palin draw as many people as their opponents now, and in some cases more.

John McCain doesn't like being compared to George Wallace (video below). Who would have thought. He does complain that the other side can say whatever and not have to apologize…..that is just is how it is. He should know that by now.

Well it is getting late in the 4th quarter down at the football stadium. Here is what is going on in the championship game.

The defending champions just got the ball back inside their 20 with 2:23 left in the 4th. They are down by 10, with one timeout and the two minute warning left. The opposing team is hungry. They've lost the last two games to their rivals in close calls (one of which was correctly decided by the replay booth) and decided they weren't going to let it happen again. This time they have the home field advantage. The home fans are rabid. Their front office went out and spent a ton of money on building the team and buying new players and bringing in tons of bandwagon fans.

The champions have made a few uncharacteristic mistakes this game. The first quarter started out bad, but the team rebounded to pull close at halftime. Midway through the third, the champions actually pulled ahead – the new unheralded free agent caught a long touchdown, then scored on a two point conversion. Then the bottom dropped out. A couple of crucial interceptions from the veteran quarterback. They couldn't jump on a few fumbles the other team left on the field. The replay booth messed up a call. The officiating has been horrible by the mainstream referees. A couple of cheap shots were missed by the officials. Some usually reliable players are under performing their past showings. Out of the control of the visitors, a seismic event took place at the start of the 4th that really damaged their chances (okay, this is the only one I couldn't think of analogy for). But the challengers keep kicking field goals, they haven't been able to knock out the champs yet.

The visiting fans in the suites and in the first few rows who could afford to go to the game have started to clear out – they don't want to be associated with the defending champions in case they are dethroned. They are prematurely pointing fingers at the coach, GM, and quarterback and anyone else they can think of. But the funny thing is the real fans are sticking around to see the end on television. They believe in their team. They know the game looks bad right now. But strange things have happened at the very end before. These are the real fans, who never stop believing, because they really truly believe their team has the best players, the best ideas for how to win the game. They aren't ready to give up yet, and they won't until the clock strikes triple zero. They are tired of the TV commentators telling them and their squad to give up and just take a knee, while trying to get them to turn off their sets and get ready for next season and accept defeat; those homers in the booth always cheer against the champs, they are former players for the other side. These same fans don't care about next season or the one after and the potential good that may come out of losing this game. They really don't care for the challengers and have a bad feeling about what they will do if they win.

Despite it all, back on the field, the champions solider on. The defense isn't in a prevent, they are still blitzing, afraid of a long play to turn this game around, knowing the perfect storm that has helped them build their current lead may not last the final 2:23.

I don't know how this game ends yet, none of us do, but I am feeling better than a lot of our fans. So I'll keep watching and believing as the champions try to hang on against all odds down at the stadium.