As we found out by looking at the final outcome, it didn't really matter who ended up being the vice presidential nominees in 2008. It usually doesn't, but it is always something to talk about during the natural down periods of a presidential campaign. However, this year was a little different in the respect that a lot of attention was paid to one of the vice presidential candidates.
As someone who backed the Sarah Palin pick and discussed the possibility of it way back when, my natural instinct is to defend it. With everything as it was at the time of the choice, looking back I still would have been for it. She was the best of the bunch.
Look at the others that John McCain was considering: Joe Lieberman. Tim Pawlenty. Tom Ridge. Mitt Romney. Lieberman, though he was a great solider for McCain would have enthused the base less than McCain and there is no evidence he would have brought in any crossover votes. Pawlenty? You think he could have made a difference? One of Tom Ridge's big selling points was that he could bring Pennsylvania into play. McCain lost by 11% there. Ridge maybe, and I stress maybe, could have helped marginally there. Not enough to make a significant impact, especially considering McCain did what he thought he had to in many Western PA counties. Romney could have been solid during the economic crisis that no one predicted, but people were still looking at the top of the ticket for answers, not the bottom. I also think the Democrats would have turned Romney into an "evil CEO" who was part of the problem. The hatred between McCain and Romney could not have been more clear during the GOP primary season. That really only left one pick at the time. McCain was trailing at the time, needed a huge splash, and had to hope to catch lightning in a bottle. He made his splash alright.
Could the initial roll out have been better? Yeah. Could she have performed better in a couple of interviews? Yeah. Team McCain tried to control her and script her way too much. They could have also been more effective at flipping her lack of experience back on Obama. But she did a lot to help McCain. He couldn't raise money. That problem was over in an instant. Palin drew crowds McCain could have only dreamed and people left her events fired up, again something McCain himself wasn't doing. People started volunteering. She was thrown right into the fire, but the surprise announcement was the only way to do it. Democrats were caught off guard and then genuinely scared after her convention speech. They were. You and I both know it. Hence the absolute savage treatment she got in the media (sorry, that is not what this post is about).
Some of you are just crazy. Buying tickets online for the upcoming Inauguration Day for thousands of dollars? Are you for real?
Let me fill you in – you can still attend the inauguration without a ticket. You just stand farther back on the Mall and don't have as good of a view and can't get that close. The parade is another thing you can do without a ticket. I've been to the last two events. 2001 was surreal because of the circumstances surrounding the election. It was also about as miserable as it could be out – 33 degrees and rain. Real fun to get there at like 8 AM and just stand there. There were a ton of scuffles along the parade route that year between Bush supporters and obnoxious protesters.. In 2005, it was kind of like whatever. For obvious partisan reasons, I will not be attending this go around. But it is a cool thing to attend in person. It is seeing history no matter who is being sworn in.
In 2001, we had to pick up the tickets the day before (like you have to do this year) and it couldn't have been more of a pain in the ass. If I remember correctly we got them from former Congressman Tom Sawyer's office. I got some in 2005 as well, though I don't remember how. They weren't really in that much demand. I think I just got them from the RNC.
The head of the committee, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, wants to prevent scalping of tickets to the historic event. Tickets are supposed to be distributed free through congressional offices, which have been overwhelmed with demands.
Senator, if I had them this year I would sell them for as much as I could get. It would be worth the drive out there to pick up the seats, sell them, and then leave. Then I would laugh.
Not a lot of sleep, not a lot to eat, and not a lot to say right now.
In Ohio, 2 U.S. House Seats were lost and one is still too close to call. The Democrats also took over the State House for the first time since 1994. Local candidates Rich Nero and Randy Cole both lost.
Summit County Republicans took a beating that everyone saw coming. A major beating. But Judge Spicer won and since that was one of two races party leadership actually cared about (other than County Engineer) they will try to claim success. Looking forward to that one.
Things could have been much worse in the U.S. Senate. Ted Stevens, Norm Coleman, and Gordon Smith are leading, and Saxby Chambliss looks headed to a run-off in Georgia as he fell just below 50%. Republicans should keep at least two of these seats and hopefully three. Went to bed thinking Coleman could not make up what he needed with only 2% of precincts left, but was pleasantly surprised to see he is ahead. Thoughts of Franken winning woke me up at least 3 times an hour. The Democrats had a once in a generation chance and so far have only gained 5 seats. That said, it is terrible that Republicans like Ted Stevens and Gordon Smith (outstanding vote not favorable to him) may win while John Sununu lost and Norm Coleman is fighting for his political life against some vile comedian.
Congratulations to Kyle and most other Democrats. Now that I know what the feeling of losing a presidential election is like, it isn't very pleasant. Kyle called me last night to offer his condolences. It was appreciated and showed his class. I do not like Barack Obama, I think he is a far left radical, and do not think he will be a good president. But he will be my president. Nothing bothered me more than when losers who hated Bush would say "he isn't my president." Yes, he was – and still is. And yes, Obama will be mine. And that I respect. I will oppose his polices but at the same time never forget that he was elected by a majority of Americans.
Seems like it wasn't too long ago we were watching the GOP Presidential Debate from the Reagan Library last fall (or at least I was). Now it is Election Day 2008.
I have Senator McCain coming up a bit short, but I am reluctant to believe the degree of change reflected in the polls this season. Turnout will be historic. GOP will match and exceed their turnout of 2004, but it won't be enough. Due to the early voting of Democrats and that whole push, a large turnout tomorrow actually favors McCain. I truly believe McCain is making a late surge that is not being detected by most polls, similar to the one Al Gore made in 2000. Obama being up by 8 or 9 or even more doesn't pass the common sense test to me. I have argued all year the polls are fundamentally flawed, so there is no backing out of that argument now, not that I am trying. To do it would be blatantly dishonest and something John Zogby would do. I honestly thought the polls would be much closer headed into the final days. Pollsters survive on reputation and it looks like they have decided as a group what the turnout model will be. My sense is that I will be dead on or way off. Either the party ID these pollsters are using, like Gallup at D +12 are wrong (highest since 1980, D +4 in 1996) or they see something that is correct that does not seem reasonable but really is.
As mentioned way back when, Obama's path to victory was through the West and Iowa. Anything else would be a bonus. That holds true more than ever today.
At some point in the last two weeks, people in the McCain camp were faced with a tough decision. There were two choices. Both propositions assumed a close election similar to 2004, which was the only way to operate. The first was to cede Pennsylvania and try for 2 of 3 in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The second was to marginally pay attention the West and go all in for Pennsylvania. They obviously chose the latter. That tells me that New Mexico is lost and they felt winning both Colorado and Nevada was less probable than pulling the Keystone State Upset. The people running the campaigns have much better information than me or anyone reading this blog. Their decisions aren't made on whims. They know what is going on. People always like to say "well if only candidate X had spent one more day in state Y maybe things would have been different." We just don't know. They do. Obama has done everything possible to alienate voters across Pennsylvania. Maybe, just maybe, McCain can do it. They seem strangely confident about it. I also will add that pulling out of Michigan was the right thing to do. It wasn't going to happen there.
Mark Salter, senior aide to McCain is upbeat. Blowing smoke or for real? Any McCain backer looking for a glimmer of hope can take comfort in the last Rasmussen state polls from today. That is about all the good news out there.
Going to disagree with what Kyle said below about undecideds. My sense is that if you haven't determined you are voting for Obama by now, you are not going to. He might already have what he needs. In my eyes, most of the undecideds are either going to break for McCain or have already decided to vote for him and just aren't saying so. The election has actually become a referendum on Obama.
Just wrapped up my map. It is closer than most people have it. It will be posted in a few hours. It doesn't look a whole lot different than my original preview and my second look and third at things.
There is nothing really to do now except speculate.
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Could the initial roll out have been better? Yeah. Could she have performed better in a couple of interviews? Yeah. Team McCain tried to control her and script her way too much. They could have also been more effective at flipping her lack of experience back on Obama. But she did a lot to help McCain. He couldn't raise money. That problem was over in an instant. Palin drew crowds McCain could have only dreamed and people left her events fired up, again something McCain himself wasn't doing. People started volunteering. She was thrown right into the fire, but the surprise announcement was the only way to do it. Democrats were caught off guard and then genuinely scared after her convention speech. They were. You and I both know it. Hence the absolute savage treatment she got in the media (sorry, that is not what this post is about).
