Senate 2010: Brunner & Fisher Eye DC

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio, Ohio Government
• Date: Feb 17,2009

I think statewide announcements deserve an update on this basically defunct blog, don't you?

Jennifer Brunner is running for Senate!
Lee Fisher is running for Senate!

I covered what I thought at the Keeler Report. In summary, here is what i said:

1. I am stupefied by all the Democrats who were begging her to run again for SoS - pitching the "team player" angle - and thought it would work. Open Senate seats come along maybe once but probably not twice in a career of a politician. Brunner obviously doesn't see herself as just a Secretary of State. This was her chance and she would have been borderline stupid to not take it. She will have the full-backing of 60th vote Sherrod which will be worth something. She cares more about herself than the Apportionment Board. So would you if you were her too.

2. Saying that Brunner doesn't see herself as a career SoS, she also knows that if Strickland wins in 2010, AG Cordray is the party choice for Governor if he wins in 2010 as well. That must have played a factor in her thinking. And she must have felt both would happen. Not saying they will, just saying that is what she thinks.

3. While 60th vote Sherrod will support Brunner, Fisher will have the backing of Strickland and what he controls…..at least the two of them will have that backing as we start out.

4. Dispatch: Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Bill Mason might replace Brunner in the SoS race. I guess? Though Brunner is a formidable candidate, her departure does bring about a major opening for the Ohio GOP to take that seat back and hold the Apportionment Board. I wonder, deep down, if the Ohio GOP would rather win the Senate seat or Brunner's. Actually, I am fairly sure it is Brunner's.

5. Will this push out others in the Democratic field - or encourage them to get going on their bid? Neither Fisher or Brunner is backing down - and you can't expect anyone to with this opportunity. If Brunner and Fisher are both going to run and there will not be a clear field, there is no incentive for any of the other possibilities to stay away. It might be easier for someone like Betty Sutton or Peter Lawson Jones to win in a fractured primary - much like Sutton did for her congressional seat in March 2006. (I think this is the most important point).

6. I guess with Fisher making it official that means Bill O'Neill won't be running. He said he wouldn't run if Fisher did. What a relief.

I also think it is important that we note prediciting this race so far out would be foolish. Ask George Allen, Tom Daschle, and Ted Stevens about that.

Voinovich Out. 2010 Battle.

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Congress, Ohio
• Date: Jan 11,2009

Well if there was ever a reason update a basically defunct Ohio political blog, this would probably be it. Looks like we got our answer on whether Senator Voinovich will run for a third term in 2010.

Politico: Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won't seek reelection to the Senate in 2010.

His retirement would give Democrats a shot at an open Senate seat in a battleground state that voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 elections and elected Democrat Sherrod Brown to the Senate in 2006.

After the last couple of days, I am not surprised. But overall, yes, I am surprised. It was always a foregone conclusion he was running. Until something happened.

Let the speculation of who will run begin. I don't know any names you don't - Rob Portman is the likely GOP candidate. Democrats will be fun to watch, as there are about 85 of them who A) want the nomination and B) think they are entitled to it. Lee Fisher, Tim Ryan, Peter Lawson Jones, Marcy Kaptur are names that are bouncing around. Hell, even Zach Space is.

Prediction.

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio
• Date: Nov 28,2008

Usually around the end of December I make predictions for the following year. Often they turn out wrong. This one is for 2010, but the motions will start in 2009. Actually, they already have.

If I heard correctly, and someone tell me if I am wrong, that since the late 1960's when the Ohio House expanded to 99, this fall marked the first time the party that drew the lines lost control. That is shocking and speaks to how bad the Ohio GOP has run statewide in the last two cycles. If Democrats can control the Ohio Apportionment Board in 2010, Republicans are going to be in a world of hurt - nothing compared to right now. Democrats probably don't forget how they have been drawn out in the past (see 1991, 2001). Safe to say they will return the favor. Republicans could be in the wilderness for a long time in Ohio if they lose control of the Apportionment Board. A breeding ground for future candidates will take a major hit and many Republicans will find themselves drawn into less friendly districts or even have to face off against each other. The state legislative boundaries will be re-drawn by the five member, partisan, state apportionment board after the 2010 elections. One legislative representative will be on the board for both the Democrats and Republicans. The Governor, Auditor, and Secretary of State control the other three seats. As it stands now, Democrats hold the upper hand.

Hence, Republicans are going to mount an effort like we have never seen to win the Secretary of State post in 2010. Both sides are working under the assumption that both Ted Strickland and Mary Taylor run for reelection and win (right now the first one looking like it is more certain, with Taylor set to be the Democrats big target in 2010 - they really have no one else to go after).

At times the last few months it seemed like the ORP had turned in to an advance team for Jon Husted's all but announced 2010 run for Secretary of State. In the midst of a presidential election, they were more focused on Jennifer Brunner than Barack Obama or other local candidates and races. Brunner deserved a lot of scrutiny. But it was like there were no other races or anything going on in the state. There was a total effort to make her look as bad as possible - more so focusing on her future than 2008 concerns, in my opinion.

Kyle Sisk thinks that Brunner will run for Senate against George Voinovich. I think the party pressure will be far too great for Brunner to abandon her current job when so much is at stake for Democrats to hold that office. Brunner or someone else if Sisk is right, Ohioans are going to see a titanic battle over this job - one that could control the future for both parties in the Statehouse. The Ohio GOP has already signaled as such and the calender hasn't even hit December 2008 yet.

All this is good news for Rich Cordray. We will put our resources into the other three races, leaving Cordray with an easy task to win reelection as AG. There is no doubt he plans on using that office as his springboard to run for governor in 2014. I hope the Republican candidate for Treasurer in 2010 can self fund.

RNC Update: Blackwell?

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio, Republicans '08
• Date: Nov 24,2008

RedState, in a post titled "Rumor of the Day":

I hear that Ken Blackwell, the former Secretary of State of Ohio, is seriously considering throwing his hat into the ring for RNC Chairman against Michael Steele.

Blackwell is active in the NRA, the National Taxpayers Union, and also is a big Club for Growth fan.

Some of the people I talked to this morning said that Blackwell, like Steele, is a fresh face for the GOP, but unlike Steele conservatives tell me they know where Blackwell stands on issues.

Now all we need is J.C. Watts to throw his hat in the ring if we're just out looking for an African-American to go up against Obama instead of looking for the most qualified guy. Republicans should not be engaged in this level of "me-too-ism" that most people find disingenuous anyway.

Hmmm. Hadn't heard that one. As one of the 36.65% percent of Ohioans who voted for Blackwell in 2006, my feelings are pretty clear. I like the guy and would vote for him again. It is true that people know where Blackwell stands. Steele people are a little less sure about.

Quite honestly, I really don't think either one is right for the job. Fact is that Blackwell got blown out in 2006. Yeah, it was a bad year in Ohio to be a Republican - especially to be running to replace Bob Taft. But it wasn't 36.65% bad. I don't see that as an image you want as your party chairman - someone who got blown out in his last election.

Voinovich vs. Fisher?

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio
• Date: Nov 17,2008

The other day I started looking ahead to 2010 and the U.S. Senate race here, which will be George Voinovich vs. some Democrat. I have long speculated that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher wants the nomination. And here and here and here.

Last night one of the worst kept secrets in Ohio political circles was confirmed to me: As part of the deal of signing on to be Lt. Governor for the 2006 Strickland ticket, Fisher basically demanded that he gets first shot of the Democrats for any of the statewide offices he wants in 2010. It makes his decision to be take the responsibilities of Director of Development more puzzling; overseeing Ohio in it's effort to attract businesses and high paying jobs is not an easy task. Maybe he decided it was better to be seen trying to do something as opposed to whatever it is the Lt. Governor has done in the past in Ohio, which as far as I know is virtually nothing. Fisher has run statewide before in Ohio with mixed results (barely winning the AG race in 1990, losing that job to Betty Montgomery in 1994, losing to Bob Taft for Governor in 1998, winning with Strickland in 2006).

We all know Tim Ryan wants it too….but he would have to give up his ultra safe House seat for the run. Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones also reportedly has his eyes on Voinovich's seat. There are scores of others as well, but these three names are currently the most prominent.

Tomorrow Never Dies (For Casinos)

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio
• Date: Nov 15,2008

Not a post about the new Bond movie.

PD: Backers of Issue 6, the most recent failed effort, say they now are planning a referendum that would establish casinos in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Youngstown and Toledo, as well as Wilmington in Clinton County.

Good map breakdown there of overall county voting of the previous 4 failed referendums. One of the main reasons (though there were a few) that Issue 6 went down in flames this year was that the fact there would only be one casino in one county. It did however get a majority in Clinton County, where it was to be located, and three surrounding counties. Not so good elsewhere. Speaking for myself, I was against Issue 6. Full 2008 statewide results here.

The new plan would have a better chance of succeeding than the previous issues that have failed. In 2006 the plan to allow slot machines in nine locations scattered throughout the state got 43% of the vote - the highest share a "yes" vote has gotten in Ohio. The PD analysis shows that voters closer to the actual location of the casino tend to be more likely to support it. The casino folks know this and are retooling appropriately.

Issue 6 proponent Rick Lertzman said he and his partners are putting together a coalition of new backers in the six counties where the casinos would be located. He said his objective is to present a united front and avoid bickering among different parts of the state.

Eventually a casino will be built in Ohio. Just because it has been defeated statewide four times now doesn't mean we have heard the last of it. There is too much money for the casino owners to make to give up (Oops, I mean they care too much about the well-being of Ohioans to give up). It might happen next time or the time after or the time after that. But one of these days, the casino people are going to get the right proposal with the right message (tie in with a small reduction on property taxes?) on the ballot at the right time. If the economy stays in the tank here, which based on our high taxes and poor business climate it probably will, conditions are more ripe for passage.

Unless Ohio stars raking it in through Keno. I played for the second time last night and ended up donating $3 to the state. Probably going to need a little more than that, as participation so far hasn't lived up to expectations.