OH-15: Slowly Crawling Towards Conclusion

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Congress, Ohio 2008
• Date: Dec 5,2008

Columbus Dispatch: About 1,000 disputed ballots that could decide the outcome of a hotly contested central Ohio congressional race won't be counted, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled today.

The state's highest court ordered the Franklin County Board of Elections to throw out about 1,000 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 4 election that contained flaws such as a lack of a signature and identifying information.

The race they are talking about is the only yet to be decided race in the House: Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in the 15th. Stivers currently leads by 594 votes. All the votes from Madison and Union Counties are in, and 37,298 ballots are yet to be counted from the part of the district that is in Franklin. Today's ruling only affects around 1,000 of that number – and none of them could be counted until the dispute was settled, which now it has been.

From what I have heard, the Stivers people aren't feeling all that confident about what is left. The ruling also affects an Ohio House race I don't care about. If you look at the Ohio SoS site, the Franklin vote that is in and tallied: Kilroy 118,212, Stivers 106,267, with 21,369 being split between two other candidates. You can do the math and ascertain yourself that it is probably going to be still close when these votes are counted……which means…..good additional news that if the race is within 0.5% after the remaining ballots are counted……recount!

Now for some quick math. Assuming that exactly 1,000 votes are not counted I broke it down using 27,298 minus 1000 to get 26,298 as what is left to be counted (Dispatch has a typo saying it is 37,298 that is left, thanks to Justin Miller for the clarification there).

However, according to most people and Democrat blogger DPotts of BSB, about 40% of provisonals are from the part of Franklin County part that is part of the 15th, though no one can be sure. We'll say that it is 50% and none of the others are rejected. So that brings the number down from 26,298 to 13,149.

Using the numbers right from the SoS site, and also assuming the provisionals in Franklin break the way in percentage the regular vote went (not a safe assumption, this is just for arguments sake – Kilroy got 48.08% and Stivers 43.22%), here is what I got as Franklin County results:

Kilroy: 6,322 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 124,534 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 136,025

Stivers: 5,683 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 111,950 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 135,535*

* – The SoS site does not seem to reflect the latest numbers that have Stivers up 594 (finalized from Madison and Union Counties); they show him up 149. So add the difference of 445 to Stivers and you get 135,980 three county vote for him – a difference of 45 votes.

All a guess. And if anything the votes yet to be counted, you would think, would skew Kilroy (which is one reason I chose to say 50% of the votes will be from the 15th) by more than her percentage margin of those already counted. So check my math (I am bad at it) or do your own if you think you have a better way. Or if any of my basic numbers are wrong let me know.

Good News For Mary Jo Kilroy

• Author: Kyle Kutuchief
• Filed under: National Landscape 2008, Ohio 2008
• Date: Nov 21,2008

A Federal Judge has ruled that 1,000 provisional ballots cast in heavily Democratic Franklin County must be counted in the hotly contested OH-15 recount. According to Buckeye State Blog, the ballots will remain sealed until November 29th to allow for an appeal, but this is a step in the right direction for Kilroy. The Columbus Dispatch offers a succinct summary of the ruling:

U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley ruled yesterday that both state and federal law "impose a duty on poll workers to verify that a provisional voter" has completed the ballot properly. That includes signing and putting one's name on the ballot envelope, he said.

"Thus, because the disputed ballots in the FCBE's (Franklin County Board of Elections) custody are deficient due to poll worker error, they constitute valid votes that must be opened and counted," Marbley said

It is important to remember that not one of Franklin County's 27,000 provisional ballots have yet been counted because of the legal challenge to the 1,000 disputed votes. They will remain untouched until the appeal process ends, which is fair. Currently, Stivers leads district wide by 479 votes. I checked the county by county numbers expecting Kilroy to be way ahead, but she is actually down by 149 votes. The good news is Obama won 59%-40%. The hope for Democrats is those coat tails helped pull 478+ more of those provisional ballots for Kilroy.

Mary Jo Kilroy Hoping Franklin County Delivers

• Author: Kyle Kutuchief
• Filed under: Ohio 2008
• Date: Nov 17,2008

The Congressional balance in Ohio is much different after this past election. Winning candidates John Boccieri and Steve Driehaus put the Ohio Congressional Delegation at 9 Democrats, 8 Republicans, and one undecided seat. The race for Ohio's 15th Congressional District is down to a recount expected to be completed by November 25th.

Currently, Republican Steve Stivers holds a 149 vote lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. NBC4 in Columbus reports that the recount in Franklin County started this past Saturday. The recount in heavily Democratic Franklin County is Kilroy's best hope to close the gap. This week 27,000 absentee ballots will be counted in addition to the full recount of all ballots cast on Election Day. There are about 1,000 absentee votes that are being disputed in court and may also be counted. These results are important because if Stivers wins then our Ohio Congressional delegation will be split, but if Kilroy wins it will give us a 10-8 majority.

Joe Biden At Copley High School

• Author: Kyle Kutuchief
• Filed under: Obama, Ohio 2008, Presidential
• Date: Nov 4,2008

***View the slideshow in full screen mode by clicking play and then the small box in the lower right hand corner of the viewer***

Issue 5: No

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio 2008
• Date: Nov 2,2008

Just wanted to get on the record here. I am well aware that Issue 5 is likely to pass overwhelmingly on Tuesday. I will be voting against it.

I believe it is an individual's own responsibility to determine what type of credit they can and cannot use. No one forces anyone else to get a pay day loan; believe it or not, some people actually think it is a good option for them! It is clear how much the loan will cost; all you have to do is read what you are signing. If you get a loan and for whatever reason you can't pay it back, that is your fault. Not the fault of the industry that is in the cross hairs.

The 391% interest figure the people that are trying to get Issue 5 passed is such a bunch of garbage. They know it too; I wonder how many times someone has actually paid 391%. Not many. If you go in to the average pay day loan place and get a $100 loan, the fee is $15. You have around 2 weeks to pay it back. Of course if you do not, then there are penalties, just like getting a loan for a car or a house from a bank. How unfair! Again, the average $15 fee is not hidden. If someone getting a loan is stupid enough to not read any of the fine print in addition to not pay back the money they said they would, whose fault is it? Here is some news: not everyone makes the right decisions all of the time.

Not all borrowers pay the money back right away and end up paying interest. Obviously that is how these lenders stay in business. If they can't make a profit, they won't stay open. That is how business works. You have to make money. Jobs are lost if 5 passes. Should Ohio try to shed jobs in our current situation?

I know I am fighting a losing battle here, but that is the way I feel. It makes a lot of people feel good to help put this "evil industry" virtually out of business in Ohio. Simply put, you are telling your fellow citizens that they aren't smart enough to make their own decisions. There is nothing more liberal than that line of thinking. This is one crusade I have never understood. Ohio has about 72,451 more pressing things to worry about. When this passes, what is next? Limiting how much a used car can sell for; all prices have to meet state guidelines so everyone gets a fair deal? Putting a cap on how much the Cleveland Browns can charge for a football ticket because some people can't afford to sit in the lower deck? Ohio based Best Buys can only charge up to a certain interest rate for anyone buying a flat screen television regardless of past credit history?

Issue 6: No

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio 2008
• Date: Nov 1,2008

(A little late on this issue, so not a lot of specifics. About 85 other blogs have already covered this and done a better job. Sorry).

I indicated the other day I would be voting against Issue 6. Now I am not one of those anti-gambling zealots; in fact I like going to casinos every once in awhile. I wouldn't want one in my neighborhood because I would probably end up going there too much. But my thing is that Ohioans have told casinos over and over and over they don't want them here. Enough is enough. But these casino folks know eventually (according to the law of averages) they will get the right wording on the ballot at the right time at the exact time the right people will be coming out to vote. I find it insulting that this state has to keep voting on something repeatedly on which they have come to a clear conclusion.

As usual, the people backing this issue are trying to spin the jobs angle. Building a casino is kind of like building a baseball stadium. The city and owner promise all these great jobs, when in reality about 50-75 people end up working in decent paying jobs and the rest work for about $8.75 an hour, part-time. The website behind Issue 6 says they will create "up to 5,000 jobs." I would love to know how they counted and arrived at that. But, they will have told the truth as long as no more than 5,000 jobs were created. Even if only 215 jobs come to fruition, that still falls under "up to 5,000."

Ohio is not doing well economically (understatement of the year here). So we are supposed to believe that bringing in an industry designed to take money from the people will help? Okay. Even if I supported the casinos, I could not support giving one company a monopoly and writing that in to the state constitution. Plus, is there really a question that casinos would start popping up everywhere after they got a foothold in the state? No, of course not. Once the dam breaks, it stays broken.

How many times can Ohio say no to casinos? The people here don't want one. It couldn't be any more clear. Issue 6 will likely meet the same fate that similar ballot initiatives have met. Unless that whole law of averages thing kicks in.

BuckeyeRINO discussed this issue from the Republican, Democrat, and the Libertarian points of view.