He was going to win in any event, but a wise move by Sarah Palin to go down there and campaign for him. Everybody won. Senator Saxby Chambliss said he "could not overstate" Sarah's contribution to his win. Considering he ended up winning by far more than the projections, something or someone must have been responsible for the late surge. Chambliss must be a genius because he ignored all the know-it-alls that said Palin was such a drag.

Chambliss, in his own words:

Not the best of screen shot of Chambliss there by YouTube.

Since the election I've talked a lot about Sarah Palin with friends on both sides of the aisle. The general consensus is she wasn't given a chance to succeed because the McCain campaign did such a bad job of handling her. Her selection so late in the summer that she has little time to prepare for the national spotlight, which I would argue she was never going to be ready for anyway. What has been exceptionally revealing is the McCain campaign and Fox News (a la Campaign Carl) assault on Palin post election. The stuff about her clothes and her general intelligence came from conservative sources. It showed how undisciplined and amateur the McCain campaign really was. I feel bad for the fact that this woman put her neck our for John McCain and she got trashed because they did such a bad job with her. Anyway, I hope she rebounds and gets the Republican Presidential Nomination. Palin 2012!

U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley ruled yesterday that both state and federal law "impose a duty on poll workers to verify that a provisional voter" has completed the ballot properly. That includes signing and putting one's name on the ballot envelope, he said.

"Thus, because the disputed ballots in the FCBE's (Franklin County Board of Elections) custody are deficient due to poll worker error, they constitute valid votes that must be opened and counted," Marbley said

It is important to remember that not one of Franklin County's 27,000 provisional ballots have yet been counted because of the legal challenge to the 1,000 disputed votes. They will remain untouched until the appeal process ends, which is fair. Currently, Stivers leads district wide by 479 votes. I checked the county by county numbers expecting Kilroy to be way ahead, but she is actually down by 149 votes. The good news is Obama won 59%-40%. The hope for Democrats is those coat tails helped pull 478+ more of those provisional ballots for Kilroy.

59 – The Minnesota Senate race is going to be a long wait. The latest report in the Minneapolis – St. Paul Star Tribune estimates the recount will be completed in mid-December at the earliest. Coleman's lead is down to 206 votes. Minnesota uses optical scan ballots. There were 2.92 million votes cast on Election Day, but only 2.88 million votes recorded for the Senate race. The AP is reporting that the hand recount could show thousands of senate votes that the optical scan machines neglected to read. Obama won Minnesota by 10% with a margin of about 300,000 votes. I'd say that very good news for Al Franken.

Unrelated: I just wanted to say thank you to Eric Mansfield for inviting Ben and I to be on NewsNight Akron last Friday. I have been approached by a surprising number of people who regularly watch the show and saw us. It has reaffirmed my hope that people care about local news and issues here in Akron.

Raise your hand if you know who the current chairman of the Republican National Committee is.

Okay, I am guessing not most of you. I know it is Mike Duncan, but I literally have no idea what he looks like. Contrast that to 2004 where RNC Chair Ed Gillespie was everywhere and definitely a visible presence. Duncan reportedly wants to keep his job, but that will not happen. When you are the chairman of a party that takes a beating, you go, whether it was your fault or not. That is just how it works. Now that we our of power on both ends of the Hill, whoever ends up being the chairman will be the public leader of the party.

Three prominent names are floating around out there: Former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele, Newt Gingrich, and now Fred Thompson. There is even a site trying to draft the just defeated John Sununu into running for the post. Jim Nussle has also shown interest in addition to a few other less known names. All have their own positives and negatives.

On a personal level, I like Michael Steele. But would he will be seen as nothing but an attempt to imitate Lord Obama? The media and the left will do their best to Palin him, though that would probably happen to anyone just based on the fact they were heading the Republican Party. He is a great speaker and could be a valuable tool. He is also more of a moderate, and we have that whole party infighting / searching for answers thing going on right now. The person on the front lines is going to have to speak out against Obama, and Steele might not be the right guy for the job.

Thompson was one of the few Republicans who was relentless in going after Obama after he secured his nomination. This role may not be the best fit for him though; after all we saw his "lack of fire" during his brief presidential run. He might make a good second in command, someone tasked with coming up with ideas and the best way to get them out, i.e. "General Chairman." As far as Gingrich goes, everyone already knows about him and has an opinion. He says if enough people want him to run, he will.

Having a great speaker and a good face for the party is all nice. But the key will be organization. That is one reason Ed Gillespie was so successful. Whoever it ends up being, whether it is a name mentioned here or nor, they have a huge mess on their hands. It very well could be no one mentioned above, but those are the most prominent names out there. The next chairman will be decided by 168 RNC committeemen and women at the winter meeting in January.

Time: The fight over gay marriage is not over in California, or anywhere else in the U.S. Street protests dragged into the weekend in Los Angeles and other Golden State cities, and legal challenges are already asking the California Supreme Court to overturn the Nov. 4 statewide vote on Proposition 8 that made same-sex marriage in California not only illegal but unconstitutional.

The people pushing gay marriage raised an astonishing $43.6 million, outspending their opponents by around $14 million, but losing the vote while getting around 47%. But just because you lost a statewide referendum, don't worry, you can just complain, protest, and guilt trip people until you get your way!

Less than one week after losing at the polls, those that were on the short end are already running to the courts to get the will of the people overturned. This post isn't about the gay marriage issue, though my position has been made clear, is it about people not liking decisions and thinking they can find ways around them. "Republican" Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is encouraging all this, which is very helpful. They also have a handful of reasons as to why the ban passed (it couldn't have just passed because people wanted it to) – from SF Mayor Gavin Newsome's arrogance to Obama driving up black turnout to the infamous school field trip to plain old voter confusion. Hey, I have some excuses why John McCain lost too!

If we are going to start running to the courts to overturn election results, maybe some McCain supporters should find a sympathetic judge to find a reason to delay Obama taking office or force a new election. It is about as absurd. Why even have votes anymore? If those dismayed by the results of California Proposition 8 can keep on fighting, maybe I should be able to do so with McCain. Maybe the casinos should just ignore the Issue 6 results and build one in Ohio anyways.

I give Obama credit for reaching out to Joe Lieberman. Part of me wants to see Joementum pay a price for his over the top support of John McCain and consistent attacks on Obama's preparedness to be president. On the other hand, it is waste of time and would cause a major distraction. Republicans would just rally around Joe and and it would work to their advantage to start off on a partisan note. So, kudos to Obama for continuing to stay above the fray and think of the big picture.

Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe filed papers to run for governor in Virginia in 2010 (h/t Buckeye State Blog). I see he is following the Haley Barbour model.

Finally, much of the post election analysis I have read attributes Democrats success in Ohio with early voting to just dumb luck. The fact is that Democrats spent money in states like Ohio to get out the early vote. I think we better understood the expanded playing field and how important high early turnout was to success on Election Day.

Not a lot of sleep, not a lot to eat, and not a lot to say right now.

In Ohio, 2 U.S. House Seats were lost and one is still too close to call. The Democrats also took over the State House for the first time since 1994. Local candidates Rich Nero and Randy Cole both lost.

Summit County Republicans took a beating that everyone saw coming. A major beating. But Judge Spicer won and since that was one of two races party leadership actually cared about (other than County Engineer) they will try to claim success. Looking forward to that one.

Things could have been much worse in the U.S. Senate. Ted Stevens, Norm Coleman, and Gordon Smith are leading, and Saxby Chambliss looks headed to a run-off in Georgia as he fell just below 50%. Republicans should keep at least two of these seats and hopefully three. Went to bed thinking Coleman could not make up what he needed with only 2% of precincts left, but was pleasantly surprised to see he is ahead. Thoughts of Franken winning woke me up at least 3 times an hour. The Democrats had a once in a generation chance and so far have only gained 5 seats. That said, it is terrible that Republicans like Ted Stevens and Gordon Smith (outstanding vote not favorable to him) may win while John Sununu lost and Norm Coleman is fighting for his political life against some vile comedian.

Congratulations to Kyle and most other Democrats. Now that I know what the feeling of losing a presidential election is like, it isn't very pleasant. Kyle called me last night to offer his condolences. It was appreciated and showed his class. I do not like Barack Obama, I think he is a far left radical, and do not think he will be a good president. But he will be my president. Nothing bothered me more than when losers who hated Bush would say "he isn't my president." Yes, he was – and still is. And yes, Obama will be mine. And that I respect. I will oppose his polices but at the same time never forget that he was elected by a majority of Americans.

Once I get some food in me, I'll have more.

We ended our conversation with him letting me know he was going to vote for Obama because he ultimately believes in a strong executive and has been impressed by Obama's thought process on issues. He said Senator McCain has done a bad job making the case why he won't be more of the same. I believe that is how most undecided voters will break tomorrow.

For some reason or another the Senate hasn't really been on my radar that much this year. In 2004 and 2006 it really was. Maybe it because I know we are in the minority and the gap will grow larger. Or maybe it was because there was no race in Ohio. Soon enough though we will be talking about George Voinovich vs. whomever.

While I am in the final process of putting together my electoral map, I am done with the Senate picks. As far the White House race goes, Thursday I really started going state by state. There were about 6 states then still up in the air. It is down to 3 right now. The final 6 were Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire. You can guess the last three if you want. I'll be taking the full allotted time to post that map.

Competitive Senate races, in alphabetical order (all currently held by the GOP):

Alaska: The state with the race I missed in 2004 (Murkowski / Knowles). For some reason, I just have this strange feeling Ted Stevens somehow wins. Mark Begich was going to lose before the conviction. Too many people in Alaska depend on money Stevens brings back to the state. I have nothing to back this pick up.
STEVENS WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Colorado: For a time there in August, it seemed like Boulder liberal Mark Udall could lose to Bob Schaffer. Well, it isn't August anymore. Schaffer just never got enough traction.
UDALL WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss was supposed to cruise to reelection. It didn't work out that way. This race will be tight, but Chambliss holds off Jim Martin.
CHAMBLISS WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Kentucky: McConnell is going to win, but he has gotten a huge scare. If this was an off year election, he might go down. Specifically, he loses in 2006. Bruce Lunsford almost in the right place at the right time. No KY Republican has forgotten the Jim Bunning collapse late in 2004 that almost cost him his seat.
McCONNELL WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Minnesota: No way, no how does Al Franken get elected to the Senate. People have enough commonsense. Norm Coleman wins and the Minnesota DFL kicks themselves for nominating Franken. Dean Barkley, playing third party spoiler, can't drag Al across the finish line.
COLEMAN WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Mississippi (special election): Appointed Senator Roger Wicker seems to have pulled away from former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Should be a relatively close race, but it's Wicker's to lose.
WICKER WINS, REPUBLICAN RENTENTION

New Hampshire: Going with the upset here. Historically, Senate rematches go the same way. Jeanne Shaheen was so dreadful in her debate with John Sununu this week that I have to believe that he will scrape by. Could be the closest of them all. This pick is half with my head and half with my heart. The Senate needs John Sununu.
SUNUNU WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

North Carolina: I don't know. Dole should win, but Kay Hagan seems poised for victory. I might change this one tomorrow.
HAGAN WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Oregon: With Oregon's stupid mail in voting system, Gordon Smith is probably gone. Actually it has nothing to do with the mail ballots, but Smith will lose his distinction as the last GOP Senator on the West Coast. Obama will pull Jeff Merkley to victory.
MERKLEY WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

So, I see the Dems picking up (in addition to VA and NM) CO, NC, OR. 5 seats. Could have been much worse. Or if I am wrong….then, well, never mind. If my upsets are wrong (AK, NH) then things will be bad for the Republicans. I imagine most of my picks except those two are on line with what most "experts" are picking.

The rest:

No need for concern for the Dems: Pryor (AR), Biden (DE), Durbin (IL), Harkin (IA), Kerry (MA), Levin (MI), Baucus (MT), Reed (SD), Johnson (SD), Rockefeller (WV), Open/J. Warner (VA)

Probably no need for concern for the Dems: Lautenberg (NJ), Open/P. Domenici (NM)

Mild concern: Landrieu (LA)

No need concern for the GOP: Sessions (AL), Roberts (KS), Cochran (MS), Inhofe (OK), Alexander (TN), Enzi (WY), Barrasso (WY), Open / L. Craig (ID), Open / C. Hagel (NE)

Probably no need for concern for the GOP: Collins (ME), Graham (SC), Cornyn (TX)

Last evening Kyle and I had the great opportunity to talk to a delegation of Swedish politicians. 42 senior officials from the Swedish Social Democratic Party are currently visiting our country during the run-up to the election. The members of the group include representatives of the Party Leadership as well as Senior Staff from the Party HQ and its Regional Directors. They split up into groups and are staying in 5 different battleground states. The group is being hosted locally by the Cleveland Council on World Affairs. The group is interested in learning more about the campaign, election process and the issues that are important to the American electorate. Yesterday they attended a John McCain event in Mentor and will see Hillary Clinton today. Though the two of us obviously lacked that kind of star power, we had a lively discussion.

I was the only person in the room at the Cleveland Marriott Residence Inn who wanted McCain to win, and one of two who thought he had a chance to do so. I think the conversations we had about the polls and the role of new media in this cycle were some of our best. Additionally, we finished up talking about how "socialist" is a dirty word to many here as compared to it's meaning in Sweden. They asked some great questions and hopefully we gave at least decent answers. Thank you to the CCWA for giving us the time to meet with them; it was a great experience.

Part I – We discuss the vice-presidential candidates, final stretch polling, and Ohio.

Part II – We discuss local races and what to look for on Election Day.

Ben and I would like to take a moment to personally thank Ray Horner for his support of our work on this site by having us on his program. He is a class act and an Akron original. Thank you Ray and keep up the good work.

*Update: McCain says Stevens Should Resign the Senate

For an Ohio blogger, I have paid a lot of attention to the Minnesota Senate race. Well, there has been a shocking development: the Minneapolis Star Tribune has endorsed incumbent Republican Norm Coleman over Democrat Al Franken. When people talk about liberal newspapers, the New York Times is always the one that comes to mind first. The Star Tribune is probably more liberal than any paper in the country – including the NYT. This can be compared to what it would have been like had the Akron Beacon Journal endorsed Ken Blackwell over Ted Strickland in 2006 – only times about 100. Imagine if I announced tomorrow I changed my mind and was voting for Obama. That is how surprising this is. The Star Tribune has been a regular arm of the DNC in going after Coleman for years now. Minnesota Democrats Exposed says not a single newspaper across the left leaning state has endorsed Al Franken. As for the reasoning behind the Strib's endorsement, your guess is as good as mine. I suspect they know Franken would be a total black eye for the state and even they don't want a part of the divisiveness he would bring. I almost wonder what Coleman has done wrong to get this endorsement! And on top of it, the Strib could have endorsed third party candidate and former Senator Dean Barkley if they wanted to; Coleman wasn't their only non-Franken option.

Maybe Franken needs to get in the faces of the editorial board and yell and scream and swear at them.

Short term, Coleman losing would be a crushing blow for Republicans. A high profile senator who has been very effective for his state will have lost to a comedian who doesn't pay taxes and hasn't been funny since around 1989 and really only moved back to Minnesota to run this race. Long term, a Franken win might be a positive for the GOP. It would encourage other high profile stars to run for high profile offices, playing into the Hollywood elite vs. rest of America theme that Republicans love to play up. I don't care about the long term right now. This is a tough race – former Senator Barkley (who replaced Wellstone for the few weeks in late 2002 before Coleman was sworn in and was Jesse Ventura's #1 political adviser) has made the contest into effectively a 2 on 1 as he and Franken constantly team up against Coleman. Franken was DOA until the economic crisis. Like many Democratic challengers across the country, it gave him new life. At the end of the day I find it hard to believe that a majority (or in this case likely a plurality) in any state in the country – politics aside – could vote for a joke like Franken over a serious candidate like Coleman. This endorsement doesn't change minds or change the fact that this race will be close, but it does illustrate that Franken is a ludicrous candidate to begin with, so much so that even the Minneapolis Star-Tribune realizes it.

100 people in the United States have the privilige to be a senator at any given time. Al Franken should not ever be one of them. Six years ago yesterday, Senator Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash and Coleman won the election (which was tight and going to come down to the wire) against his replacement. To say that Paul Wellstone and I did not agree on many issues would be a severe understatement. But Wellstone was a serious senator and fought for what he believed in – like many do on both sides. Franken is not worthy to have any seat in the Senate let alone that of Senator Wellstone.

I'll just tell you, if McCain loses and Franken wins on November 4th then I will……well I don't know what I will do. And of course, the normal disclosure: I have donated to Norm Coleman's reelection committee. I sent a last minute donation on Friday.

In this space later tonight I will give a brief rundown of all contested Senate races. After baseball. Go Phils.

Oh, here it is. Senator Stevens reminded me. In peril GOP seats in bold.

SAFE DEM: Pryor (AR), Biden (DE), Durbin (IL), Harkin (IA), Kerry (MA), Levin (MA), Baucus (MT), Reed (RI), Johnson (SD), Rockefeller (WV), Open/J. Warner (VA)
LIKELY DEM: Lautenberg (NJ), Open/Domenici (NM)
LEAN DEM: Landrieu (LA), Stevens (AK), Sununu (NH), Open/Allard (CO)

TOSS UP: Coleman (MN), Dole (NC), Smith (OR)

LEAN REP: Chambliss (GA), McConnell (KY), Wicker (MS)
LIKELY REP: Sessions (AL), Collins (ME), Graham (SC), Cornyn (TX), Barrasso (WY), Open/Craig (ID), Open/Hagel (NE)
SAFE GOP: Roberts (KS), Cochran (MS), Inhofe (OK), Alexander (TN), Enzi (WY)

The Democrats basically need 9 seats to get to their coveted number of 60. If you assume they win VA, CO, AK, NH, and NM then gets them to 56. They would need the three toss ups (MN, NC, OR) and one other surprise. If they get all three tossups, there is probably a 50/50 chance they steal one of the following: GA, KY, MS. 60 is unlikely, but they are going to gain a significant number.

Stevens was probably going to win in Alaska before today. But if you are going to get smashed, he might as well fall.

This afternoon I sat down with Scott Knowles and Kevin Egan. They teach Political Science at Drexel University and closely follow Pennsylvania Politics. I wanted to get their take on the state of the presidential campaign in Pennsylvania. In this clip, they discuss the impact of Sarah Palin, the coal belt between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, McCain surrogates, how Obama wins, and how Drexel University students are engaged in this election.

In the Democratic Primary, the weeks of the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries were certainly a high point of the tension between the Obama and Clinton camps. At that point in the primary, Senator Casey backed Obama, Governor Rendell backed Clinton, and Rush Limbaugh's operation chaos was in full swing. Democrats everywhere were split right down the middle as the primary fight continued to escalate. Since then, the Democratic Party has come together behind Senator Obama and Senator Clinton has become one of the Obama Campaign's best weapons.

Today, I'm traveling to Philadelphia to participate in a "Media and Elections" panel at Drexel University. The timing of the trip turns out to be perfect with McCain focusing on the state, the Phillies in the World Series, and Penn State scheduled to get upset by Ohio State this Saturday. While on the road, I hope to snag a couple interviews to see if there is any validity to McCain's efforts.

After seeing some gains in the trackers the last few days, McCain seems to have lost that ground and maybe a little bit more today and yesterday (Powell Bounce?). A long time ago (it seems) I posted my look at the Electoral Map. Without going as much in depth as last time, here is where I see things. This is based on my opinion that McCain currently trails by around 4.5 to 5 points. Obviously if Obama ends up winning by 8 or whatever, the below is all moot. He will sweep these states. I do not think that will be the case.

Start with the Bush 286. Most people are already giving Iowa (7) to Obama, which makes sense. Obama started his journey there (for president only; political career at the Ayers house) and McCain hates ethanol. Iowa going R in 2004 was kind of an aberration; it is at it's roots Democratic. So that gets you to 279. Everyone is on the Obama has New Mexico (5) sewn up bandwagon, and though I am not quite sold on that, for arguments sake we will say he wins there. Republicans are down to 274. That is where we will begin.

Let me start out by saying that I think at the end of the day, Florida (27) stays in the GOP hands. I was very worried about FL last week, but I am cautiously optimistic now. Indiana (11) will go to McCain. Ohio (20), I just don't know. I say McCain will win here, partly based on what I am hearing from "knowledgeable" people and partly because I want him to. It is close and doesn't seem to want to switch. Democrats always over poll in North Carolina (15), and I think this year will end up being the same. It will be tight there, but look for McCain to pull through at the end. My advice there would to be not go again and hope for the best; going to NC this late shows weakness. Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) scare me more than Ohio and Florida right now. I keep looking at trends and registration and everything I can get my hands on about VA, and the poll numbers don't seem to match up. In my opinion, Obama needs turnout there over 85% to win. Same in Colorado. McCain has to win both. There were reports he had given up on Colorado, but I do not buy those. He will be there later this week. Nevada (5) is another one of those states that will almost certainly go the way the country does. From what I hear from someone who supposedly knows (great sourcing there) McCain is not doing as well as he needs right now in Washoe County (Reno) which I singled out way back when as the key to Nevada. Missouri (11) is a place I have no handle on right now.

There has been a lot of speculation on McCain banking on winning Pennsylvania (21). I hope that is not the case. I have been adamant basically since this blog started that McCain faces a major uphill climb there. All recent public polls bear that out. Rumors are everywhere that the internals of both campaigns show it close. I tend to think it is a lot closer than public polling because both sides are there so much, which is the main indicator of what they really think. Nothing has really changed to make me think McCain can win here, especially looking at the national polling. Yes, it is true that a win here can offset other losses, but it is certainly nothing to count on. He made 4 stops there on Tuesday alone. We are at the point, 13 days out, where you can't be spending time in places just for show. Interpret McCain's schedule as you will.

Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10) seem to be off the table right now. McCain, I think, has a reasonable chance in New Hampshire (4), probably somewhere around 40% or so. There aren't any other Kerry states even on the radar right now.

I plan on having my final prediction up on Monday November 3. Though I am certainly a cheerleader at the end of the day I value my accuracy more. I will call it as I see it, even if it hurts. But as of now, I really in my heart of hearts believe this race is closer than people think and the polls will tighten at the end. The GOP base will be there. I see it everyday. The undecideds, in my opinion, are really two separate groups right now – the real undecideds and those who are backing McCain but not showing up in the polls or saying for their own reason they haven't reached a choice yet. Obviously McCain will win the latter, and I also think he will win the bulk of the former for reasons explained in detail here a few times. There is an old saying that the side that says "the only poll that matters is the one on election day" is losing. Most times that ends up being correct. I don't need to tell you the reality of the situation as it looks right now.

On November 5th I will probably end up being either horrifically wrong or one of the few who was right all along as we wait for Colorado and Nevada to finish counting. And if I am wrong, I will be paying off bets for around a month. I have a bet with Eric from Plunderbund and now The Professor from Political Science 216. This is in addition to many others. I am poor, so McCain better win. Wait, I will get a tax cut aka welfare check if Obama wins! Maybe it will be alright.

Ben: Kyle and I sat down and talked about tonight's debate, the national horse race, two local Ohio House races, and one other big race that is more just on my radar. The video runs just under six minutes. I even wore a tie.