Well if there was ever a reason update a basically defunct Ohio political blog, this would probably be it. Looks like we got our answer on whether Senator Voinovich will run for a third term in 2010.

Politico: Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won't seek reelection to the Senate in 2010.

His retirement would give Democrats a shot at an open Senate seat in a battleground state that voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 elections and elected Democrat Sherrod Brown to the Senate in 2006.

After the last couple of days, I am not surprised. But overall, yes, I am surprised. It was always a foregone conclusion he was running. Until something happened.

Let the speculation of who will run begin. I don't know any names you don't – Rob Portman is the likely GOP candidate. Democrats will be fun to watch, as there are about 85 of them who A) want the nomination and B) think they are entitled to it. Lee Fisher, Tim Ryan, Peter Lawson Jones, Marcy Kaptur are names that are bouncing around. Hell, even Zach Space is.

Story: Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of an American political dynasty, has decided to pursue the United States Senate seat being vacated by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, a person told of her decision said on Monday.

How pissed off would be if you were serving in the U.S. House from New York and you wanted to be a senator? You wait around and wait around and hope the chance comes your way at some point – knowing even then it would be a dogfight for the nomination. Then in 2000, it did. Moynihan decided to retire. A lot of Democrats in New York were waiting that one out, but unfortunately for them some First Lady came in and decided to move there because she wanted it.

Well, that seat is now open again……and the same people kept their mouth shut and stepped aside the first time…….and now someone with no history of holding elected office wants to replace HRC. Sounds like the criticism the left leveled at Sarah Palin, minus the whole she was a governor part. One would have to think New York Governor David Paterson will give Kennedy a long look. I don't think all of the contenders (former Rep. Nita Lowey, Reps. Steve Israel, Greg Meeks, Nydia Velasquez, Brian Higgins just to name a few) will keep quiet this time.

(Note: "Rep." is short for "representative" not "Republican." The media was fond of only referring to Gary Condit as "Rep. Gary Condit" back in 2001 to try and confuse people into thinking he was not a Democrat.)

For Republicans, it is fun to watch, but that is about as close as we will get to ever winning this seat. Giuliani would have an outside chance to win it, but he would never run again (after dropping out in 2000). Peter King would have a glimmer of hope, but not much.

For the latest on Coleman – Franken in Minnesota, this post by Powerline has some good information. It is going to be close, and one side is not going to be happy with the end result.

Columbus Dispatch: About 1,000 disputed ballots that could decide the outcome of a hotly contested central Ohio congressional race won't be counted, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled today.

The state's highest court ordered the Franklin County Board of Elections to throw out about 1,000 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 4 election that contained flaws such as a lack of a signature and identifying information.

The race they are talking about is the only yet to be decided race in the House: Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in the 15th. Stivers currently leads by 594 votes. All the votes from Madison and Union Counties are in, and 37,298 ballots are yet to be counted from the part of the district that is in Franklin. Today's ruling only affects around 1,000 of that number – and none of them could be counted until the dispute was settled, which now it has been.

From what I have heard, the Stivers people aren't feeling all that confident about what is left. The ruling also affects an Ohio House race I don't care about. If you look at the Ohio SoS site, the Franklin vote that is in and tallied: Kilroy 118,212, Stivers 106,267, with 21,369 being split between two other candidates. You can do the math and ascertain yourself that it is probably going to be still close when these votes are counted……which means…..good additional news that if the race is within 0.5% after the remaining ballots are counted……recount!

Now for some quick math. Assuming that exactly 1,000 votes are not counted I broke it down using 27,298 minus 1000 to get 26,298 as what is left to be counted (Dispatch has a typo saying it is 37,298 that is left, thanks to Justin Miller for the clarification there).

However, according to most people and Democrat blogger DPotts of BSB, about 40% of provisonals are from the part of Franklin County part that is part of the 15th, though no one can be sure. We'll say that it is 50% and none of the others are rejected. So that brings the number down from 26,298 to 13,149.

Using the numbers right from the SoS site, and also assuming the provisionals in Franklin break the way in percentage the regular vote went (not a safe assumption, this is just for arguments sake – Kilroy got 48.08% and Stivers 43.22%), here is what I got as Franklin County results:

Kilroy: 6,322 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 124,534 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 136,025

Stivers: 5,683 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 111,950 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 135,535*

* – The SoS site does not seem to reflect the latest numbers that have Stivers up 594 (finalized from Madison and Union Counties); they show him up 149. So add the difference of 445 to Stivers and you get 135,980 three county vote for him – a difference of 45 votes.

All a guess. And if anything the votes yet to be counted, you would think, would skew Kilroy (which is one reason I chose to say 50% of the votes will be from the 15th) by more than her percentage margin of those already counted. So check my math (I am bad at it) or do your own if you think you have a better way. Or if any of my basic numbers are wrong let me know.

Saw this on Hot Air: According to multiple sources, who confirmed the Tip O’Neill staffer-cum-MSNBC host has negotiated with veteran Obama staffers to enlist in his campaign, Chris Matthews is likely to run for United States Senate in Pennsylvania in 2010. Matthews, 62, would run as a Democrat.

This would be a setback for Obama, as he would lose one of his main television cheerleaders. I still have doubts as to whether Specter will run again…he will be 80 in 2010…but he must be hoping that if he does run to face Matthews. I always used to watch his show on MSNBC, but he just became too much of a shill for me to handle.

I'll believe Matthews is going to run when I see it….these rumors have been floating around forever. Tough to see him run if he wasn't confident he would win and things really can't get worse for the GOP. Also, I think some of the Congresspeople from Pennsylvania would primary him anyways (Allyson Schwartz?). He won't get the same "everyone out of the way" treatment that Franken got in Minnesota.

Prediction: Saxby Chambliss win the Georgia runoff with 53.8% on Tuesday.

(Red) Star Tribune: By day's end, with about 18 percent of the vote recounted, Coleman continued to lead Franken — but by only 174 votes, notably narrower than the unofficial gap of 215 votes at which the recount had begun. Franken's gain owed much to a swing of 23 votes in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County — the result of faintly marked ballots and older optical scanners that failed to read the marks.

Coleman's campaign is challenging the first pictured ballot that was counted for Franken. Franken is challenging the 2nd saying it doesn't show "intent" to vote for Coleman, a usual favorite argument the other way for Democrats. Pictures of other disputed ballots can be seen here. At this point, that is what it might come down to now – challenged ballots.

Franken gained many votes before the recount even started – ballots from a select few Democratic counties that were statistically improbable if not impossible. I don't think there is any "fix in" at this point – the actual recount should be fair. There is a lot of oversight on both sides. But the race is closer than it should be because of the Franken votes he got in the period between November 4 and Wednesday. Currently comedian Franken is only getting names and addresses and challenging rejected absentees in Ramsey County, a stronghold for him. If he is successful at that, Coleman will probably follow up with a similar challenge of rejected absentees in some of his stronger counties. He won't have a choice.

This race seems like it is going to come down to a small handful of disputed votes from a small Minnesota county – maybe in Rock or Scott Counties that won't even start their recounts until Dec. 3. From what I can tell looking from looking at the maps, both sides have counties that "should" be favorable to them; Franken has more to go in Hennepin County (only 6% counted), St. Louis County (42% counted), and Ramsey (15% counted) and some of the outlying counties outside the Minn//St. Paul region that tilted Coleman didn't even begin the process yet. An elections page of the StarTrib has a good interactive map that shows which counties have done what so far and here is their county by county running total. Still a lot of small counties that start Thursday or Friday that leaned Coleman. That said, don't be surprised at all if Franken takes a lead at some point Friday. The question then is whether or not it holds. I'll update this Thursday as events warrant, and we should know a lot more by late tonight.

Everyone keeps talking about the Dec. 2 runoff in Georgia as the one that may decide the 60th seat. That will almost assuredly be settled before Minnesota. Unless of course that race goes into a recount also.

Washington Post: There's increasing chatter in political circles that the Obama camp is not overly happy with the usual suspects for secretary of state these days and that the field might be expanding somewhat beyond Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and maybe former Democratic senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

There's talk, indeed, that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) may now be under consideration for the post. Her office referred any questions to the Obama transition; Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor declined to comment.

Well, someone has to answer that phone at 3 AM right? Not a lifetime job like the Supreme Court, but still pretty prestigious. I'd take her over John "Global Test" Kerry though; we'd be lucky to have her over some of the others he might name and she would keep the tradition of undermining POTUS alive and well at State. Did Jimmy Carter take himself out of the running? Which reminds me, now that Obama won, Carter is finally off the hook. Sad to say, that line of attack officially died. Unfortunately, Democrats will have a Jimmy Carter they will try to use against Republican candidates for the next 20 years: George W. Bush. Just because this campaign is over, I don't think his name will go away for awhile on the Democratic candidate trail.

Nah….this can only be a trial balloon. He couldn't appoint someone who is far more experienced than he is to this post. Unless he wants someone to blame when his foreign policy goes bad?

I had a real problem in 2006 with a lot of my fellow right wing bloggers who went after Mike DeWine so hard, even to the point of backing his primary opponent. Senator DeWine was never my favorite, but he was certainly better than the alternative; that is how I always looked at it. I have often wondered if some of my friends on the right are so happy they helped to undermine DeWine at the beginning of his campaign. It turned out that in 2006 it might not have mattered – Sherrod Brown was the right person in the right place at the right time and won. It probably didn't. Sounds familiar to what happened last week.

Same feelings about George Voinovich. He is running for a third term, there is little doubt. Voinovich starts out in a better position than DeWine did; he has stature and name ID that DeWine could never achieve. No one knows how the next two years will play out, and it is doubtful the national environment can get any more toxic for Republicans than it was the last two cycles, but Ohio Democrats are still going to be fighting amongst themselves to get the nomination. A strong candidate will emerge to challenge the sitting senator. They smell the blood in the water and will be moving in for the kill very shortly. The DSCC will also make sure Senator Voinovich doesn't get a free pass like he did in 2004.

I hope that Republicans here realize that there isn't anything to be gained by some sort of nasty primary. Voinovich will win beat back any challenger and can only come out damaged if it happens. That is the reality whether you like it or not – Voinovich will be the Republican nominee if he runs. We really can't afford to lose anymore seats in the Senate. Voinovich is not perfect, we all know that. But just like when you compare Mike DeWine to Sherrod Brown, the alternative is far worse. Senator Tim Ryan or Senator Lee Fisher doesn't sound that great to me.

2010 is going to be monumental in Ohio. At least three big races are on the horizon – governor, senator, and secretary of state. Republicans here in Ohio need to get their act together now. Two straight brutal losses are enough. Right?

Minnesota Senate Update: Coleman's lead down to 206 votes over 30 year New York resident Al Franken. The new total includes 32 absentee ballots for Franken that were in someone's trunk.

One question that Republicans are going to have to find an answer for very quickly is what they are going to do regarding the judicial nominees from the incoming administration. Democrats like our pal The Reverend are already on the case, saying the GOP is being hypocritical for talking up potential filibusters of Obama nominees. President Bush tried to extend an olive branch to the Dems by renominating Clinton's nominee Roger Gregory and putting up another one of his judges, Barrington Parker, for a promotion from district court to appeals court to try and usher in his "new tone" when he first took office. Shortly thereafter, the Democrats stole the Senate (May 2001), and their first actions were to approve Gregory and Parker and hold up the nominations of 9 Bush appointees in committee. That is when things really got bad and it became clear Democrats had no intention of ever cooperating. They were just doing their job, protecting innocent Americans from "right-wing extremists." We were told it was their duty to check the unilateral Republican power.

Almost from the beginning of the Bush Administration, Democrats targeted high-profile nominees and denied them an up or down vote. Do the names Miguel Estrada, Janice Rogers Brown, Charles Pickering, William Pryor, Priscilla Owen, and Brett Kavanaugh ring any bells? I could go on and name more. Democrats, while in the minority, decided that it would be appropriate for them to no longer allow straight up and down votes on the Senate floor. 60 votes would be needed to cut off discussion before there would be a final vote up/down vote, knowing Republicans couldn't reach that threshold if Democrats held together (they did). Once taking the majority back in November 2006, Democrats simply refused to allow hearings on many nominees just like they did from June 2001 through January 2003, thank you very much Senator Leahy. The rate of confirmation has been pathetically slow since January 2007; the Senate has basically been running out the clock on pending Bush nominees since then. Democrats will likely now discover that the Founding Fathers never intended judges or other Presidential appointments to be blocked in this manner or any other – a simple up or down vote is all that is required, and will be outraged the first time Republicans dare try and stop a Democrat judge from getting to the bench. Democrats just don't want conservatives on the bench and don't care how they achieve this goal.

I have always been a big believer of the old slogan that "elections have consequences." Part of me feels that the incoming administration should be able to appoint whomever they want. They won, that is their right. But the other part of me knows that the Democrats will act in the same fashion the next time we are back in the White House. It sounds childish, but the Republicans almost have to do something now. We weren't the ones that started this. Unfortunately, Republicans now find themselves out of power and in position to do something about it, even it is just picking fights with one or two high-profile Democrat nominees. Why can't Republicans act as a "check and balance" to the total control of one party like Democrats used to argue earlier this decade?

As Harry Reid said back on May 23, 2005, the day the "Gang of 14" deal was struck, "of course there will be filibusters in the future." He meant it then in context of saying, "yes, the Democrat minority will still block rising star judges because they are a threat and we will not truly honor this deal." Well, now the shoe is on the other foot. I have fully stated in the past that judicial nominees should only need 50 votes. But Democrats didn't play by the established rules, but I guess now we will be expected to do so. Only fair, right? That is how it typically works in Washington for Republicans. After all, "left-wing extremists" don't exist, only "right-wing extremists."

So as I am a believer of "elections have consequences," I also know that "payback is a bitch." However, Democrats will probably get enough weak Republicans to join their side to block any filibuster and act submissive to their new leaders and overlord. They've been doing it for a few years already.

No matter what you think of the policies of President Bush, the way he has handled himself throughout this campaign has been nothing but classy. He has afforded a much better transition to Obama than he was given. He put in place months ago procedures to make the change much easier than it had been previously. President Bush understands far more than any of us the challenges the next leader of our country will face and he was determined to make sure that everything goes as smooth as possible. His invitation extended to the Obama family to come to the White House early was as sincere as it gets. His Rose Garden speech on Wednesday AM could not have been more gracious, despite Obama's consistent blasting of him. Thats how he always was towards Democrats, even though they never returned the courtesy. Something can be said for that.

Bush has constantly said that both sides kicking him while he was down during this campaign did not bother him. I doubt that is true; it had to hurt tremendously. But he never let it show, instead focusing on doing the best job he could until the end. He has handled the whole thing with dignity, like he has since Day One back in 2001. His knowledge of what we are truly up against seems to have led him to the conclusion that it was best that he stay above the fray. Bush's non-partisan passivity in the face of the attacks against him and his office was nothing short of stunning. Sometimes I feel like he should have fought back more, but for whatever reason he did not.

Bush had to face obstacles and situations which few presidents have ever seen and hopefully never will again. His success in protecting the country after September 11 returned us to a pre-9/11 times in regards to homeland security, and the irony is that it was to the detriment of the party even though it was clearly good for the country as a whole. He never seemed to care about his legacy, instead just trying to do what he thought was best. I hope that Obama will act in the same manner – country above politics. President Bush is a decent man and he did not deserve much of what he was subjected to, and certainly not that display we saw early Wednesday morning outside the White House.

Other news: Norm Coleman clings to a small lead (336 votes) over Al Franken in Minnesota. This race won't be decided for at least a few weeks with the pending recount. The good news for Coleman is that recounts typically add a few votes the tally of the candidate leading. The bad news is that many powerful people in Minnesota are determined to see him be defeated. This one very well could get ugly, along the lines of what happened in Washington State in 2004 in the race for Governor. This is a seat, I hate to say it, that the GOP might have to end up fighting for in court if things play out the way they are headed. We must hang on to this seat.

My Senate picks, so far, have been pretty good. Deep down I knew Sununu was going to lose in New Hampshire, but that was the only one I said I was half picking with my heart. It appears Ted Stevens will win in Alaska, but it is not yet determined. That was an upset I had called. In Georgia, whether or not it goes to a runoff, which also is still in the air but looks likely, Saxby Chambliss will be favored to win.

Not a lot of sleep, not a lot to eat, and not a lot to say right now.

In Ohio, 2 U.S. House Seats were lost and one is still too close to call. The Democrats also took over the State House for the first time since 1994. Local candidates Rich Nero and Randy Cole both lost.

Summit County Republicans took a beating that everyone saw coming. A major beating. But Judge Spicer won and since that was one of two races party leadership actually cared about (other than County Engineer) they will try to claim success. Looking forward to that one.

Things could have been much worse in the U.S. Senate. Ted Stevens, Norm Coleman, and Gordon Smith are leading, and Saxby Chambliss looks headed to a run-off in Georgia as he fell just below 50%. Republicans should keep at least two of these seats and hopefully three. Went to bed thinking Coleman could not make up what he needed with only 2% of precincts left, but was pleasantly surprised to see he is ahead. Thoughts of Franken winning woke me up at least 3 times an hour. The Democrats had a once in a generation chance and so far have only gained 5 seats. That said, it is terrible that Republicans like Ted Stevens and Gordon Smith (outstanding vote not favorable to him) may win while John Sununu lost and Norm Coleman is fighting for his political life against some vile comedian.

Congratulations to Kyle and most other Democrats. Now that I know what the feeling of losing a presidential election is like, it isn't very pleasant. Kyle called me last night to offer his condolences. It was appreciated and showed his class. I do not like Barack Obama, I think he is a far left radical, and do not think he will be a good president. But he will be my president. Nothing bothered me more than when losers who hated Bush would say "he isn't my president." Yes, he was – and still is. And yes, Obama will be mine. And that I respect. I will oppose his polices but at the same time never forget that he was elected by a majority of Americans.

Once I get some food in me, I'll have more.

For some reason or another the Senate hasn't really been on my radar that much this year. In 2004 and 2006 it really was. Maybe it because I know we are in the minority and the gap will grow larger. Or maybe it was because there was no race in Ohio. Soon enough though we will be talking about George Voinovich vs. whomever.

While I am in the final process of putting together my electoral map, I am done with the Senate picks. As far the White House race goes, Thursday I really started going state by state. There were about 6 states then still up in the air. It is down to 3 right now. The final 6 were Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire. You can guess the last three if you want. I'll be taking the full allotted time to post that map.

Competitive Senate races, in alphabetical order (all currently held by the GOP):

Alaska: The state with the race I missed in 2004 (Murkowski / Knowles). For some reason, I just have this strange feeling Ted Stevens somehow wins. Mark Begich was going to lose before the conviction. Too many people in Alaska depend on money Stevens brings back to the state. I have nothing to back this pick up.
STEVENS WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Colorado: For a time there in August, it seemed like Boulder liberal Mark Udall could lose to Bob Schaffer. Well, it isn't August anymore. Schaffer just never got enough traction.
UDALL WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss was supposed to cruise to reelection. It didn't work out that way. This race will be tight, but Chambliss holds off Jim Martin.
CHAMBLISS WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Kentucky: McConnell is going to win, but he has gotten a huge scare. If this was an off year election, he might go down. Specifically, he loses in 2006. Bruce Lunsford almost in the right place at the right time. No KY Republican has forgotten the Jim Bunning collapse late in 2004 that almost cost him his seat.
McCONNELL WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Minnesota: No way, no how does Al Franken get elected to the Senate. People have enough commonsense. Norm Coleman wins and the Minnesota DFL kicks themselves for nominating Franken. Dean Barkley, playing third party spoiler, can't drag Al across the finish line.
COLEMAN WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Mississippi (special election): Appointed Senator Roger Wicker seems to have pulled away from former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Should be a relatively close race, but it's Wicker's to lose.
WICKER WINS, REPUBLICAN RENTENTION

New Hampshire: Going with the upset here. Historically, Senate rematches go the same way. Jeanne Shaheen was so dreadful in her debate with John Sununu this week that I have to believe that he will scrape by. Could be the closest of them all. This pick is half with my head and half with my heart. The Senate needs John Sununu.
SUNUNU WINS, REPUBLICAN RETENTION

North Carolina: I don't know. Dole should win, but Kay Hagan seems poised for victory. I might change this one tomorrow.
HAGAN WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Oregon: With Oregon's stupid mail in voting system, Gordon Smith is probably gone. Actually it has nothing to do with the mail ballots, but Smith will lose his distinction as the last GOP Senator on the West Coast. Obama will pull Jeff Merkley to victory.
MERKLEY WINS, DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

So, I see the Dems picking up (in addition to VA and NM) CO, NC, OR. 5 seats. Could have been much worse. Or if I am wrong….then, well, never mind. If my upsets are wrong (AK, NH) then things will be bad for the Republicans. I imagine most of my picks except those two are on line with what most "experts" are picking.

The rest:

No need for concern for the Dems: Pryor (AR), Biden (DE), Durbin (IL), Harkin (IA), Kerry (MA), Levin (MI), Baucus (MT), Reed (SD), Johnson (SD), Rockefeller (WV), Open/J. Warner (VA)

Probably no need for concern for the Dems: Lautenberg (NJ), Open/P. Domenici (NM)

Mild concern: Landrieu (LA)

No need concern for the GOP: Sessions (AL), Roberts (KS), Cochran (MS), Inhofe (OK), Alexander (TN), Enzi (WY), Barrasso (WY), Open / L. Craig (ID), Open / C. Hagel (NE)

Probably no need for concern for the GOP: Collins (ME), Graham (SC), Cornyn (TX)

On September 19th, John Boccieri was expected to attend a Candidates' forum hosted by the Wayne – Holmes County Realtors Association. His opponent in the race in Ohio's 16th Congressional District, State Senator Kirk Schuring attended the forum along with fourteen other local candidates. Boccieri instead sent a Summit County assistant prosecutor on his behalf; for the record no part of Summit County is in the 16th. Boccieri abruptly (the morning of) backed out of appearing at the forum after committing to do so. Why?

Boccieri instead that day spoke for lobbyists at the luncheon of the Northeast Ohio Governmental Affairs Group (NEO GOV). This gathering took place at the Akron-Canton Airport. I have been told that he committed to speak at this lunch as far back as September 3. Why did John Boccieri choose to dine with a group of lobbyists instead of talking to voters he seeks to represent? This does not surprise me, as Boccieri only registered to vote in the 16th in July of this year, far after the primary was concluded. Not attending the event is one thing. Every candidate can not be expected to attend every event, though they probably should if at all possible. Skipping the forum and the chance to speak directly to voters and instead talk at a lobbyist luncheon is a whole different set of circumstances, however. This sequence of events really shows his priorities when it comes to the 16th District.

For an Ohio blogger, I have paid a lot of attention to the Minnesota Senate race. Well, there has been a shocking development: the Minneapolis Star Tribune has endorsed incumbent Republican Norm Coleman over Democrat Al Franken. When people talk about liberal newspapers, the New York Times is always the one that comes to mind first. The Star Tribune is probably more liberal than any paper in the country – including the NYT. This can be compared to what it would have been like had the Akron Beacon Journal endorsed Ken Blackwell over Ted Strickland in 2006 – only times about 100. Imagine if I announced tomorrow I changed my mind and was voting for Obama. That is how surprising this is. The Star Tribune has been a regular arm of the DNC in going after Coleman for years now. Minnesota Democrats Exposed says not a single newspaper across the left leaning state has endorsed Al Franken. As for the reasoning behind the Strib's endorsement, your guess is as good as mine. I suspect they know Franken would be a total black eye for the state and even they don't want a part of the divisiveness he would bring. I almost wonder what Coleman has done wrong to get this endorsement! And on top of it, the Strib could have endorsed third party candidate and former Senator Dean Barkley if they wanted to; Coleman wasn't their only non-Franken option.

Maybe Franken needs to get in the faces of the editorial board and yell and scream and swear at them.

Short term, Coleman losing would be a crushing blow for Republicans. A high profile senator who has been very effective for his state will have lost to a comedian who doesn't pay taxes and hasn't been funny since around 1989 and really only moved back to Minnesota to run this race. Long term, a Franken win might be a positive for the GOP. It would encourage other high profile stars to run for high profile offices, playing into the Hollywood elite vs. rest of America theme that Republicans love to play up. I don't care about the long term right now. This is a tough race – former Senator Barkley (who replaced Wellstone for the few weeks in late 2002 before Coleman was sworn in and was Jesse Ventura's #1 political adviser) has made the contest into effectively a 2 on 1 as he and Franken constantly team up against Coleman. Franken was DOA until the economic crisis. Like many Democratic challengers across the country, it gave him new life. At the end of the day I find it hard to believe that a majority (or in this case likely a plurality) in any state in the country – politics aside – could vote for a joke like Franken over a serious candidate like Coleman. This endorsement doesn't change minds or change the fact that this race will be close, but it does illustrate that Franken is a ludicrous candidate to begin with, so much so that even the Minneapolis Star-Tribune realizes it.

100 people in the United States have the privilige to be a senator at any given time. Al Franken should not ever be one of them. Six years ago yesterday, Senator Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash and Coleman won the election (which was tight and going to come down to the wire) against his replacement. To say that Paul Wellstone and I did not agree on many issues would be a severe understatement. But Wellstone was a serious senator and fought for what he believed in – like many do on both sides. Franken is not worthy to have any seat in the Senate let alone that of Senator Wellstone.

I'll just tell you, if McCain loses and Franken wins on November 4th then I will……well I don't know what I will do. And of course, the normal disclosure: I have donated to Norm Coleman's reelection committee. I sent a last minute donation on Friday.

In this space later tonight I will give a brief rundown of all contested Senate races. After baseball. Go Phils.

Oh, here it is. Senator Stevens reminded me. In peril GOP seats in bold.

SAFE DEM: Pryor (AR), Biden (DE), Durbin (IL), Harkin (IA), Kerry (MA), Levin (MA), Baucus (MT), Reed (RI), Johnson (SD), Rockefeller (WV), Open/J. Warner (VA)
LIKELY DEM: Lautenberg (NJ), Open/Domenici (NM)
LEAN DEM: Landrieu (LA), Stevens (AK), Sununu (NH), Open/Allard (CO)

TOSS UP: Coleman (MN), Dole (NC), Smith (OR)

LEAN REP: Chambliss (GA), McConnell (KY), Wicker (MS)
LIKELY REP: Sessions (AL), Collins (ME), Graham (SC), Cornyn (TX), Barrasso (WY), Open/Craig (ID), Open/Hagel (NE)
SAFE GOP: Roberts (KS), Cochran (MS), Inhofe (OK), Alexander (TN), Enzi (WY)

The Democrats basically need 9 seats to get to their coveted number of 60. If you assume they win VA, CO, AK, NH, and NM then gets them to 56. They would need the three toss ups (MN, NC, OR) and one other surprise. If they get all three tossups, there is probably a 50/50 chance they steal one of the following: GA, KY, MS. 60 is unlikely, but they are going to gain a significant number.

Stevens was probably going to win in Alaska before today. But if you are going to get smashed, he might as well fall.

Coming down the pipeline in a potential Obama Administration.

Washington Times: From his sickbed, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy has secretly been orchestrating meetings with lobbyists and lawmakers from both parties to craft legislation that would greet the new president with a plan to provide affordable medical coverage to all Americans, a measure he has called "the cause of my life."

Mr. Kennedy's goal, his aides say, is to introduce a universal health care bill as soon as the new Congress convenes next year and to push quickly for its passage – a much-accelerated timetable compared with the last time that a health care overhaul was on the agenda, at the start of the Clinton administration.

"He sets aside several hours each day. He's calling senators. He's working tirelessly," Mr. Pollack said. "He's making things happen."

Sigh. First of all, I don't think it is accurate to say this has been the "cause of his life," but whatever. Sorry, some might find this in bad taste, but if a United States Senator is not "working tirelessly" then they should step aside so someone who can will. That includes Ted Kennedy. Mr. Pollack makes it sound like he is some hero for doing his job while he is sick. Governor Patrick in Massachusetts could appoint one of a score of liberals who would vote the same way as Kennedy. Anyways.

This seems like a great idea. Our country is drowning in debt (President Bush as much to blame as anyone for refusal to veto anything) so why not take on what will be another huge entitlement. Right? And then for good measure, just jam it through Congress as soon as humanly possible just so Ted Kennedy can have a legacy bill in his name before he dies. Again, who cares, right? As long as as a senator gets a ruinous bill named after him everyone in DC can pat themselves on the back. I wouldn't be damn surprised in the least if the GOP just rolled over and said okay. Of course, they may not be in a position to do anything about it. Then we can all wait 7 months to see a dentist or 16 weeks for an MRI while some Obama appointed bureaucrat in some basement in DC decides if Uncle Sam will pick up the tab. I can also only assume that any bill Kennedy crafts will also guarantee "free" healthcare for illegals. Oh better not say that, it makes me a terrible person to question anything for the "greatest good."

I am so sick of this. Free this, free that. I don't have a lot of money. That is of my own choosing. If I wanted more money I could get a second job, though I don't know why I would want to work harder so other people can just live off me. I don't expect federal tax cuts when I don't pay federal income tax. It is government welfare. Period. I don't expect free health care. You know what I do? I send money to a company every month for health insurance that I have never used and hopefully never will. I pay all of my bills on time every month. I don't look to others or blame them because they have more than me. I suppose I could just not have health insurance and know that someone else will pay for my care if something happens like a lot of people do. All of this isn't free. The money has to come from somewhere. Don't people realize that? Or is it they just don't care?

Starting with the bailout, every day it seems we get closer and closer to government run everything. What is even going to be the motivation for anyone to do anything productive? "Free" money, "free" health insurance, bailouts for bad decisions, etc. I spent $6 tonight on a football game where I froze and had a miserable time. Can I get a refund from the federal government as some sort of "recreational spending bailout?" What ever happened to self-responsibility? All Hail Washington I guess. Time to go to bed before I write something I will regret.

Talked to two people not associated with either campaign (obviously I did not talk to John Boccieri's campaign) or involved in the race for the 16th but people who would know. Both agreed that the public polling we have seen is not indicative of the race. This contest is in the margin of error and will end up being a win for either side with a winning percentage no bigger than 52%….and really depends on what happens on the national level over the last two weeks. It is one of those races, and neither side wants to hear this even though they know it is true, where external events and the national numbers will drive the outcome of the race. Sure, you can do some stuff around the edges – give good interviews, knock on doors, have some good mailers, etc. But in the end, that last little wind of the final day or two that isn't noticeable until after the election looms very large in this race and others just like it.

The battle for the 16th will come down to the part Medina County where right about 17% of the district is contained. Schuring will do well (better than most Republicans) in Stark County, which is just under half the district. Boccieri will over perform Democrats in Wayne and Ashland. That leaves Medina as the swing.

This is close race. If the Democrats win this one, it is probably going to be in their possession for a long, long time. Think they won't redraw the lines here to shift it back towards Boccieri's home base if they can after 2010? If that happens, the seat is gone. Gone……….

Kyle attended the debate on Thursday and then wrote about it. Three things I would add:

*No, the I-90 bridge isn't in the district. I understand the district isn't on an "island," but the first job of the representative of the district is to take care of the people there. Boccieri also said the debate was in Ashland County; it took place in Medina County. I'll cut Boccieri some slack on these two points; he is new to these parts and may have not known better.

*Schuring also didn't just stick to party line talk when discussing the economy. He talked about policies such as increasing collaboration between local and state governments and creating economic empowerment zones to improve the training of workers. He has been talking about the zones and local alliances a lot throughout this campaign. I remember hearing about these exact things when I interviewed him in early August when he unveiled his economic plan for the 16th.

*I also found it interesting that Schuring discussed his support of fair trade. Schuring pointed out that countries we trade with should not be allowed to have low environmental and workplace standards. That is not something you always hear a Republican say.

Today, the Beacon endorsed Schuring. I don't usually take note of these because I believe that people make up their own minds and don't depend on 5 people sitting in some boardroom to tell them what to do. But because I know Kyle would have already had a post up touting it had it gone to Boccieri, I'll post it just to stick it to him. They said, in part, about Boccieri: That said, Boccieri has squandered an opportunity to show leadership. His record in office is thin, his campaign little more than a collection of pre-packaged talking points.

That is kind of what I have always thought.

"There is no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area."
- Congressman Jack Murtha, D-Racist Area / 12th CD, PA. Here is the video of his statements.

People in this district…..I don't know why you keep voting for this guy. Actually, I do, it is all the pork he brings home to his gerrymandered district. 18 terms for this guy. He is the House version of Robert Byrd, minus being a former Klan leader. In the interview, Murtha also defends his slandering of 8 Marines, 7 of which have seen their charges dismissed, with one still waiting trial. Pork aside, don't people in his district get tired of listening to Murtha, especially now after he just insulted you.

Murtha is running against Lieutenant Colonel William T. Russell in 2008. Murtha needs to lose.

If there was ever a reason against gerrymandering, one just needs to take a look at the shape of Murtha's district. Ohioans take note. This is what will happen if the Democrats take control of the apportionment board and redraw the districts in their favor.

Powerline: I suppose Murtha deserves a certain amount of credit–Barack Obama waited until he was talking to friends in San Francisco to call Pennsylvanians racists, whereas Murtha insults them to their faces!

DEBATE: It is 4AM and I just finished watching the debate replay. McCain vowed to kick Obama's "you know what." He did. He kicked his ass, and I didn't say that the first two times. Hope I can say that here. And I hope it isn't too little too late. I could make 1000 points but how can Senator Government say it is true that every single McCain ad has been negative. That is flat out not true. It is scary that Obama can just sit there and casually lie about so many different things while on stage. Anyways, for those of us who have followed this campaign and supported McCain since he became the nominee, we are kind of wondering where this has been. My only complaint is that McCain still didn't do a good enough job making Obama look like the dare I say it, socialist that he is. But more so than the first two I have a feeling that McCain scored major points with the American people Wednesday night. McCain was on the offense. As always, we shall see. Pretty solid job by the moderator.

Line of the night, clearly: "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago."

19 days to go. It is the homestretch. It is here.

Hugh Hewitt and Bill Kristol tell Republicans not to despair. Hewitt lays out why McCain can win and Kristol spells out what McCain has to do. I met Hewitt in 2006 and he was a good guy. Here is hoping he is right. And Kristol is right that the Obama Campaign and the MSM want people like me to think the election is over to kill our spirits. Steve Hayes of the Weekly Standard says look back to 1976 for some answers as to how to close the gap. I'd like to see a commercial run like Ford did about Carter (on page 2).

Hot Air links to a Washington Post story: Sources within the campaign say that they will become much more aggressive in exposing Barack Obama’s ties to radicals and his lack of experience and judgment in the final four weeks of the campaign. This strategy entails significant risk, but they need to regain the edge they had before the conventions. Risky? Yes. Necessary? Yes.

Bailout passes. Like I have said, I have no idea as to whether it was needed or not. I do know that the story had to be moved off the front pages politically for McCain. McCain and Palin will be in Greater Cleveland Wednesday. Location not announced yet. Probably going for me. Also on the bailout, I noticed Betty Sutton (so also did two other GOP House members) switched her vote from no to yes in less than a week. Buckeye RINO has what could be called an "informative" video of Sutton.

Ohio.com takes a look at the contest (often talked about here) between Rich Nero and Mike Moran for the 42nd House District. Gonna be a tight race in a district that is split about dead evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

Ohio University switches to semesters, effective in 2012. I was always a fan of the quarter system – probably the only thing I liked about that communist loving school. There is nothing left to like now. Wonder what the results from precincts where OU students and faculty will be voting will like November 4? Obama 94 Other 3 McCain 3? Too high a result for McCain? I remember how miserable the papers and hate speech there were in 2002 – for a midterm election. God help the few Republicans down there now. I feel for you.

Canton Repository endorses Kirk Schuring over John Boccieri in the race to take Ralph Regula's seat in OH-16.

Lastly, not politically related, but a good story from the Plain Dealer on the 12 year old captain of the football team at Holy Name High School.

Well I guess this has nothing to do with politics either. Had to mention it though. Sorry…..but I held out this long.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. -Winston Churchill

Our side has been dealt a bad hand at a bad time. I tried to think of a poker analogy. I can't. It is just bad. The Democratic Dow went up 777 points Monday. There is no use to sit around and complain and moan about it like I did earlier today or yesterday, however you want to look at it. That gets our party nowhere. Looking forward can be the only option after what transpired the last few days. Anyone who knows me in real life knows I can be a pessimist with the best of them. When it comes to politics the opposite is true. That said….

….we got played. Democrats lied and said they had a deal for a bill last week. This was said so McCain could not come in and take credit. There was no deal. Nancy Pelosi yesterday calls a vote that I think she has to know will go down to defeat, unless she is the dumbest person in the House (concession – this is possible). Republicans can be blamed. Yet George W. Bush can sit at his stupid cabinet meeting and talk about bi-partisanship and all that. After almost 8 years, he still can't figure out that the Democrats hate him – hate him – and don't want to work with him. They are in the business of winning elections and he is still in the business of trying to foster in the "new tone;" everything – everything – is politics with them. Bush's thinking should have gone out the window May 24, 2001 when the Democrats stole back the Senate, coaxing Jim Jeffords with a chairmanship. I guess that hint wasn't big enough for him. His refusal to ever fight back just kills me. Now the House won't even convene tomorrow or Wednesday because of the Jewish holiday. So what? If today were Christmas or Easter I would expect our elected representatives to get to work this morning. That isn't unreasonable. It is what they are paid for. Only the entire country and much of the world depends on what they do or don't do next. Being out of session until Thursday is outrageous even if they can't come to an agreement of some sort. McCain needs to pound this point home again and again and again.

Anyways, the candidate that gets ahead of this wins the issue. Even the candidate that explains why it is important could win. McCain has to come out fighting like hell, otherwise what is the point of having two parties? Why not let the MSM/Democrats run everything for eternity? Most of us don't even know what is going on financially, including me. We know the basics and that is it. Before McCain went to DC last week, there were only four Republicans on record supporting the language in the bill as it was. Four. McCain went back to Washington and their input in the bill for Monday's vote got around 60 more Republicans to commit for it. The Democratic majority either still couldn't pass it or didn't want to. McCain needs a resolution more than Obama. He couldn't have done something to get any of the 40% of his party who voted no? You can be the judge why the vote and events went why they did.

Funny (not really to me, actually) how a little more than two weeks ago Democrats were the ones worried. Two weeks later everything flips. All polls, state and national, taken before today are meaningless. Dynamics have changed. It can happen again, and there is no reason why McCain can't turn this into a winner for him. The situation doesn't have to remain a net negative for the GOP because the media and Obama/Axelrod say so. Someone has to take the lead. Congress has an abysmal approval rating that is sure to sink even more. Everyone hates this current Congress, and rightfully so. They have done next to nothing. President Bush is an unpopular lame duck. There are really only two people who can lead now and one of them has shown no inclination to do so. McCain has a huge leadership opportunity here (this is where the optimist part comes in). For him to have a chance to win a massive credit failure has to be avoided at all costs (and of course this helps all Americans and the average family would be grateful). That is the problem – not the stock market, based on my basic understanding. If such a failure happens, people will vote for whoever tells them what they want to hear. And only that same one candidate is really good at that. We’ll find out one way or another very shortly. But not until at least Thursday of course. Enjoy your two days of recess, Congress!!!!

AP: Democrats have decided to allow a quarter-century ban on drilling for oil off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to expire next week, conceding defeat in a months-long battle with the White House and Republicans set off by $4 a gallon gasoline prices this summer.

(Pictured: Betty Sutton apparently celebrating high gas prices with constituents)

More to it than just the actual AP story.

Democrats aren't stupid (well they are sometimes) and they didn't want to keep fighting this issue in the public arena. Democrats also didn’t have the votes they needed despite their majority so they "decided to allow" something that was going to pass if they actually let a vote happen (which they were never going to do and lose). How nice. Wouldn't mind seeing the RNC and/or McCain running ads on this saying how the GOP sided with the people and the Nancy Pelosi majority in the House had to fold.

Short term, it is a good energy victory I guess. Long term, an energy policy that isn't just drill only or inflate your tires has to be developed. But this latest news can all be reversed by a new executive order. It can potentially be signed on January 20, 2009 by the man who didn't care that gas prices went up, just that they went up too fast. That is what the House Democrats are banking on. They know he will come through for them.

Don't be fooled…Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Betty Sutton are just kicking this down the road. They just want this issue off the table for now to protect The One. They don't really intend for any new off-shore drilling areas to be opened up.

Rally. Wall Street ends down only 40 for the week. Tough end to a promising week for the Democrats. Turning on CNBC and seeing all those green arrows pointing up has to hurt. Sorry.

The Senate Gang of 20, originally known as the Gang of 10 and then the Gang of 16 disbanded. They will not offer their terrible energy bill – the one that would have "opened up" some of the Outer Continental Shelf for drilling. The entire bill was a CYA and was a sham. This also means that the off-shore drilling ban will expire October 1st, throwing the issue back in the news. It only helps one candidate. Not the one who just wants you to inflate your tires and shut up. And wants his supporters to get in your face.

Unhinged. Charlie Rangel says Sarah Palin is "disabled." Rangel should be worrying about paying his taxes instead of hurling insults. If this guy was a Republican he would have been run out of town long ago. But as is usually the case, if you are a Democrat it doesn't matter. Tom at Bizzy Blog says this is another example of democrats showing PDS, "Palin Derangement Syndrome."

Turning Around. Ohio's August unemployment figures are in. 7.4%. I wonder if Ohio and Michigan are going to just merge. Obviously all the fault of George W. Bush and Bob Taft. It just keeps going up and up. Is there any end in sight?

Potential game at Lambert Field: Joe Biden says the University of Delaware (1-AA) would "kick Ohio State's ass" in football. As bad as Ohio State looked against USC, I somehow I doubt that. Via Taxman Blog. I feel like this blog has mentioned Joe Biden more than we should have over the last week. Those rumors he will be dropped off the ticket still aren't going away, though I don't know who starts these things. For better or worse (depending on your point of view) he isn't going anywhere.

Lastly, a state of the race update by Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics. A good read for supporters of both sides.