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Ohio Congressional Races


I got your backOne of the more remarkable stories from Tuesday's election was John Boccieri's victory in Ohio's 16th Congressional District. The final tally had Boccieri winning by an 8% margin 54% – 46%. The seat had been held by Congressman Ralph Regula for 35 years and under Republican control since 1948. I suspect that Boccieri will have a much more favorable district when the lines are redrawn in 2010 and will have the opportunity to hold the seat for a long time. The other surprising win at the congressional level for Democrats was Driehaus defeating Chabot in OH-1 52% – 48%. This is a big pick up for Democrats and gives us a foothold in southwest Ohio, which has been dominated by Republicans.

Kilroy and Stivers Still Not Over
The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that race for Ohio's 15th Congressional District is separated by just 146 votes. Provisional ballots are to be counted within the next ten days to determine the final winner. Democrats are optimistic about picking up the seat because a high number of the ballots to be counted are from Franklin County, which is a Democratic stronghold.

International Press: Ben and I sat down for an interview last week with Jonn Elledge from the New Statesman based in London, England. "One is the Ohio politics blog, run jointly by Obama hugging liberal Kyle Kutuchief and arch conservative Ben Keeler. Despite disagreeing on just about everything, the two of them have, so far, managed to work together without accusing each other of being mentally ill. And both reckon their debates have made their own arguments stronger."


Boccieri Knocked On Over 9,500 Doors Saturday



There is no place more important in American politics than Ohio's 16th Congressional District. I have been arguing for a long time that a Boccieri win in the district will cut into Republican margins from 2004 and will help deliver our state for Obama. This morning I visited Boccieri's campaign headquarters for a "GOTV Canvass Lunch and Kick Off." It was a luncheon for voters to get some food before they started another day of canvassing across the district. The large open room had a steady flow of volunteers picking up walk packets and a hot dog before they hit the streets.

The Boccieri campaigns has been out in force executing its final push to contact voters. Yesterday, the campaign and its volunteers knocked on over 8,500 doors in Stark County, which is a key battle ground for the campaign for two reasons. First, it has 60% of the districts population. Second, Boccieri and Schuring currently share Stark County as State Senators since the lines of both districts cut up the district.
Volunteers knocked on 720 doors in Wayne County and 600 in Medina County, each of which have about 16% of the districts population. Ashland has the remaining 8% of voters.

Palm Pilots for GOTV? – Walk lists at Boccieri Headquarters are loaded onto Palm Pilots and the paper copy serves as back-up.

Most of us who have volunteered for campaigns have used walk lists to go door to door. Those of us who have organized GOTV know that the logistics of the walk list process can be labor intensive. Behold the future of GOTV: Palm Pilots. The Boccieri Campaign Field Staff is able to load the voter files on to a Palm Pilot and send voters out in the district. On the screen is the voter information and the person walking door to door uses the stylus to tap the screen. All the volunteer needs to do is click a box on the screen and the contact with the voter is recorded. When they get back to headquarters, the data is downloaded and new lists are generated for the next day. No time needs to be spent translating the sloppy scribbles of people like me on a paper walk list. It is pretty cool and a sign of the level of targeting being done in Ohio by Democrats. This is just one of the many reasons Boccieri and Obama are going to win.


I'd Rather Dine With Lobbyists.


This is a little old and got lost in my shuffle. Still relevant.

On September 19th, John Boccieri was expected to attend a Candidates' forum hosted by the Wayne – Holmes County Realtors Association. His opponent in the race in Ohio's 16th Congressional District, State Senator Kirk Schuring attended the forum along with fourteen other local candidates. Boccieri instead sent a Summit County assistant prosecutor on his behalf; for the record no part of Summit County is in the 16th. Boccieri abruptly (the morning of) backed out of appearing at the forum after committing to do so. Why?

Boccieri instead that day spoke for lobbyists at the luncheon of the Northeast Ohio Governmental Affairs Group (NEO GOV). This gathering took place at the Akron-Canton Airport. I have been told that he committed to speak at this lunch as far back as September 3. Why did John Boccieri choose to dine with a group of lobbyists instead of talking to voters he seeks to represent? This does not surprise me, as Boccieri only registered to vote in the 16th in July of this year, far after the primary was concluded. Not attending the event is one thing. Every candidate can not be expected to attend every event, though they probably should if at all possible. Skipping the forum and the chance to speak directly to voters and instead talk at a lobbyist luncheon is a whole different set of circumstances, however. This sequence of events really shows his priorities when it comes to the 16th District.


Schuring and Boccieri Fighting to the Finish

Talked to two people not associated with either campaign (obviously I did not talk to John Boccieri's campaign) or involved in the race for the 16th but people who would know. Both agreed that the public polling we have seen is not indicative of the race. This contest is in the margin of error and will end up being a win for either side with a winning percentage no bigger than 52%….and really depends on what happens on the national level over the last two weeks. It is one of those races, and neither side wants to hear this even though they know it is true, where external events and the national numbers will drive the outcome of the race. Sure, you can do some stuff around the edges – give good interviews, knock on doors, have some good mailers, etc. But in the end, that last little wind of the final day or two that isn't noticeable until after the election looms very large in this race and others just like it.

The battle for the 16th will come down to the part Medina County where right about 17% of the district is contained. Schuring will do well (better than most Republicans) in Stark County, which is just under half the district. Boccieri will over perform Democrats in Wayne and Ashland. That leaves Medina as the swing.

This is close race. If the Democrats win this one, it is probably going to be in their possession for a long, long time. Think they won't redraw the lines here to shift it back towards Boccieri's home base if they can after 2010? If that happens, the seat is gone. Gone……….

Kyle attended the debate on Thursday and then wrote about it. Three things I would add:

*No, the I-90 bridge isn't in the district. I understand the district isn't on an "island," but the first job of the representative of the district is to take care of the people there. Boccieri also said the debate was in Ashland County; it took place in Medina County. I'll cut Boccieri some slack on these two points; he is new to these parts and may have not known better.

*Schuring also didn't just stick to party line talk when discussing the economy. He talked about policies such as increasing collaboration between local and state governments and creating economic empowerment zones to improve the training of workers. He has been talking about the zones and local alliances a lot throughout this campaign. I remember hearing about these exact things when I interviewed him in early August when he unveiled his economic plan for the 16th.

*I also found it interesting that Schuring discussed his support of fair trade. Schuring pointed out that countries we trade with should not be allowed to have low environmental and workplace standards. That is not something you always hear a Republican say.

Today, the Beacon endorsed Schuring. I don't usually take note of these because I believe that people make up their own minds and don't depend on 5 people sitting in some boardroom to tell them what to do. But because I know Kyle would have already had a post up touting it had it gone to Boccieri, I'll post it just to stick it to him. They said, in part, about Boccieri: That said, Boccieri has squandered an opportunity to show leadership. His record in office is thin, his campaign little more than a collection of pre-packaged talking points.

That is kind of what I have always thought.


John Boccieri and Kirk Schuring Debate In Medina



***View the slideshow in full screen mode by clicking play and then the small box in the lower right hand corner of the viewer***

The eyes of the nation are on Ohio's 16th Congressional District. Thursday night, the candidates squared off at the University of Akron's Medina County University Center. The debate was moderated by WKSU's M.L. Schultze and hosted by the Ray C. Bliss Institute for Applied Politics. The format was simple and both candidates were very respectful. The only real contention in the debate came during an exchange over the I-90 bridge. When asked about bringing funding back to the district, Boccieri said that he would fight to bring funding back and referenced several needs including infrastructure improvements like fixing the I-90 bridge. Schuring responded by telling the crowd that the I-90 bridge was not in the 16th District and not high on his priority list because he was focused on the district. Many of the people who live in Medina commute to Cleveland for work and I'm sure drive over that bridge every day they go to work. The district isn't on an island. It is that kind of failure to understand how interconnected our communities are that is what has hampered a lot of the regional development in Northeast Ohio.

Much of the rest of the debate was uneventful. Both candidates stuck mostly to the party line of the presidential candidates. Boccieri focused on the economy, creating jobs, and health care. Schring explained why he is a different kind of Republican who can work across the aisle. Both men were complimentary of Ralph Regula.

Why Boccieri Is Going To Win

From JohnForCongress.blogspot.com: "Boccieri holds a strong cash-on-hand advantage over his opponent, Kirk Schuring. While Boccieri enters the final quarter with over $464,000 in immediately-available financial resources, Schuring has only $127,000 on hand."

The campaign finance reports come on the heels of the NRCC cutting $320,000 that had been allocated for a media buy for the Schuring Campaign. Meanwhile, the DCCC continues to commit more resources to Boccieri because he continues to earn it with a smart campaign. Hey DCCC staffer reading this post and considering whether to put those last final dollars into this race… the answer is yes. Double down.

OH-16th In The News:
*89.7 reports on the debate
*ABJ's Stephanie Warsmith reports on the debate
*CNN ranks OH-16 in its top ten
*Medina Sun Endorses Boccieri



A few things to wrap up the weekend.

Hugh Hewitt and Bill Kristol tell Republicans not to despair. Hewitt lays out why McCain can win and Kristol spells out what McCain has to do. I met Hewitt in 2006 and he was a good guy. Here is hoping he is right. And Kristol is right that the Obama Campaign and the MSM want people like me to think the election is over to kill our spirits. Steve Hayes of the Weekly Standard says look back to 1976 for some answers as to how to close the gap. I'd like to see a commercial run like Ford did about Carter (on page 2).

Hot Air links to a Washington Post story: Sources within the campaign say that they will become much more aggressive in exposing Barack Obama’s ties to radicals and his lack of experience and judgment in the final four weeks of the campaign. This strategy entails significant risk, but they need to regain the edge they had before the conventions. Risky? Yes. Necessary? Yes.

Bailout passes. Like I have said, I have no idea as to whether it was needed or not. I do know that the story had to be moved off the front pages politically for McCain. McCain and Palin will be in Greater Cleveland Wednesday. Location not announced yet. Probably going for me. Also on the bailout, I noticed Betty Sutton (so also did two other GOP House members) switched her vote from no to yes in less than a week. Buckeye RINO has what could be called an "informative" video of Sutton.

Ohio.com takes a look at the contest (often talked about here) between Rich Nero and Mike Moran for the 42nd House District. Gonna be a tight race in a district that is split about dead evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

Ohio University switches to semesters, effective in 2012. I was always a fan of the quarter system – probably the only thing I liked about that communist loving school. There is nothing left to like now. Wonder what the results from precincts where OU students and faculty will be voting will like November 4? Obama 94 Other 3 McCain 3? Too high a result for McCain? I remember how miserable the papers and hate speech there were in 2002 – for a midterm election. God help the few Republicans down there now. I feel for you.

Canton Repository endorses Kirk Schuring over John Boccieri in the race to take Ralph Regula's seat in OH-16.

Lastly, not politically related, but a good story from the Plain Dealer on the 12 year old captain of the football team at Holy Name High School.

Well I guess this has nothing to do with politics either. Had to mention it though. Sorry…..but I held out this long.


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