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Columbus Dispatch: About 1,000 disputed ballots that could decide the outcome of a hotly contested central Ohio congressional race won't be counted, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled today.
The state's highest court ordered the Franklin County Board of Elections to throw out about 1,000 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 4 election that contained flaws such as a lack of a signature and identifying information.
The race they are talking about is the only yet to be decided race in the House: Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in the 15th. Stivers currently leads by 594 votes. All the votes from Madison and Union Counties are in, and 37,298 ballots are yet to be counted from the part of the district that is in Franklin. Today's ruling only affects around 1,000 of that number – and none of them could be counted until the dispute was settled, which now it has been.
From what I have heard, the Stivers people aren't feeling all that confident about what is left. The ruling also affects an Ohio House race I don't care about. If you look at the Ohio SoS site, the Franklin vote that is in and tallied: Kilroy 118,212, Stivers 106,267, with 21,369 being split between two other candidates. You can do the math and ascertain yourself that it is probably going to be still close when these votes are counted……which means…..good additional news that if the race is within 0.5% after the remaining ballots are counted……recount!
Now for some quick math. Assuming that exactly 1,000 votes are not counted I broke it down using 27,298 minus 1000 to get 26,298 as what is left to be counted (Dispatch has a typo saying it is 37,298 that is left, thanks to Justin Miller for the clarification there).
However, according to most people and Democrat blogger DPotts of BSB, about 40% of provisonals are from the part of Franklin County part that is part of the 15th, though no one can be sure. We'll say that it is 50% and none of the others are rejected. So that brings the number down from 26,298 to 13,149.
Using the numbers right from the SoS site, and also assuming the provisionals in Franklin break the way in percentage the regular vote went (not a safe assumption, this is just for arguments sake – Kilroy got 48.08% and Stivers 43.22%), here is what I got as Franklin County results:
Kilroy: 6,322 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 124,534 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 136,025
Stivers: 5,683 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 111,950 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 135,535*
* – The SoS site does not seem to reflect the latest numbers that have Stivers up 594 (finalized from Madison and Union Counties); they show him up 149. So add the difference of 445 to Stivers and you get 135,980 three county vote for him – a difference of 45 votes.
All a guess. And if anything the votes yet to be counted, you would think, would skew Kilroy (which is one reason I chose to say 50% of the votes will be from the 15th) by more than her percentage margin of those already counted. So check my math (I am bad at it) or do your own if you think you have a better way. Or if any of my basic numbers are wrong let me know.
5 Responses for "OH-15: Slowly Crawling Towards Conclusion"
The solution to this is to eliminate provisional voting. If a voter can't register by the deadline then they shouldn't be voting. Its time to return to personal responsibility.
Kilroy's voters are dumb?
the politicans, special interest group, courts are slowly but surely creating the enviornment where our electoral system will become not the will of the people but the will of those that can curry favor with the courts.
Rematch.
I say get rid of provisional voting. Can't people be expected to make a little bit of effort for the right to vote? Your ancestors died for this right — all you have to do is figure out how to register and vote. Not too much to ask.
On another note, good riddance to William 'Freezer" Jefferson. Made me embarassed to be an American.
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