Loading ...
Prediction.
- Filed under: Ohio
- Date: Nov 28,2008
Usually around the end of December I make predictions for the following year. Often they turn out wrong. This one is for 2010, but the motions will start in 2009. Actually, they already have.
If I heard correctly, and someone tell me if I am wrong, that since the late 1960's when the Ohio House expanded to 99, this fall marked the first time the party that drew the lines lost control. That is shocking and speaks to how bad the Ohio GOP has run statewide in the last two cycles. If Democrats can control the Ohio Apportionment Board in 2010, Republicans are going to be in a world of hurt - nothing compared to right now. Democrats probably don't forget how they have been drawn out in the past (see 1991, 2001). Safe to say they will return the favor. Republicans could be in the wilderness for a long time in Ohio if they lose control of the Apportionment Board. A breeding ground for future candidates will take a major hit and many Republicans will find themselves drawn into less friendly districts or even have to face off against each other. The state legislative boundaries will be re-drawn by the five member, partisan, state apportionment board after the 2010 elections. One legislative representative will be on the board for both the Democrats and Republicans. The Governor, Auditor, and Secretary of State control the other three seats. As it stands now, Democrats hold the upper hand.
Hence, Republicans are going to mount an effort like we have never seen to win the Secretary of State post in 2010. Both sides are working under the assumption that both Ted Strickland and Mary Taylor run for reelection and win (right now the first one looking like it is more certain, with Taylor set to be the Democrats big target in 2010 - they really have no one else to go after).
At times the last few months it seemed like the ORP had turned in to an advance team for Jon Husted's all but announced 2010 run for Secretary of State. In the midst of a presidential election, they were more focused on Jennifer Brunner than Barack Obama or other local candidates and races. Brunner deserved a lot of scrutiny. But it was like there were no other races or anything going on in the state. There was a total effort to make her look as bad as possible - more so focusing on her future than 2008 concerns, in my opinion.
Kyle Sisk thinks that Brunner will run for Senate against George Voinovich. I think the party pressure will be far too great for Brunner to abandon her current job when so much is at stake for Democrats to hold that office. Brunner or someone else if Sisk is right, Ohioans are going to see a titanic battle over this job - one that could control the future for both parties in the Statehouse. The Ohio GOP has already signaled as such and the calender hasn't even hit December 2008 yet.
All this is good news for Rich Cordray. We will put our resources into the other three races, leaving Cordray with an easy task to win reelection as AG. There is no doubt he plans on using that office as his springboard to run for governor in 2014. I hope the Republican candidate for Treasurer in 2010 can self fund.
5 Responses for "Prediction."
Nope, no way we can win any of them now. Thank you Taft, Householder, Arshinkoff and DeWine for all of this. But we have ourselves to blame and here is why.
When Blackwell had a chance to burn Taft in an easy year he let them talk him into bowing out. We now have strickland.
When others could have stood up and said "enough is enough" they didnot do it for fear of not being funded or being chastized for doing what is right against a RINO. We now have the House going democrat and all Housted can think about is hoarding cash so he can attempt to go against Brunner in two years, I hear it's a chunck of change he got greedy with and will end up going to waste when it could have been used to save a seat or two up this way if you know what I mean.
Think of it fellow Republicans we had super majorities in the house and senate not 6 years ago and we chose not to rock the boat and do whats right and look where it got us? Right now nowhere and it looks like it is going to be that way for some time now. But what do those characters care? They don't and do you know why? Because they got theirs and they could care less about others.
If we are going to do anything with what is left of this party now we had better do it quick or you might as well as wave "Bye bye!" to it.
Republicans in Washington and columbus had total control and the ability to make the necessary changes to move the state forward. They were all afraid to take on those special interests, (PUBLIC SECTOR UNIONS), and now the state is saddled with administrative burdens at the State, County, and Local level. But what is also shameful is Plusquellic and these others at the local level who know what a sham and financial burden collective bargaining is, never spoke out against and asked for it's removal.
Ohio simply cannot afford it's cost of government, and it has to pay for it with high taxes.
The fool taxpayers in Ohio are the ones paying for the gravy train that is public sector collective bargaining.
In fact if the taxpayers knew how good the public sector employess had it, there would be a revolt!
Strickland won't be beat.
It looks like a rocky road ahead for Ohio Reps. Thanks for the thoughtful and informative post. I think that the shape of the national and state economy will play a part in whom the voters cast their votes for in 2010. This could be a chance for Husted to act like an economic leader. But if Obama and the Democrats do a credible job of getting the economy moving again, the Reps. won't stand much of a chance.
It is sad to read that the Reps. have gotten themselves into such a mess. But one thing is for certain, the "I've got mine" attitude is not a republican-only trait. The only thing I've yet to figure out is why so many people regard this as a Republican-only voters. Remember Mark Dann?
I am a democrat, but I proudly voted for Voinivich and I will do so every time he runs. He votes with his beliefs, not a party line, and tries often to help Ohio out. Only if Glenn runs for his seat would I not vote Voiny
thanks
http://whalertly.blogspot.com
Leave a comment