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Surprise! Coleman Lead Keeps Shrinking
- Filed under: Congress
- Date: Nov 20,2008
(Red) Star Tribune: By day's end, with about 18 percent of the vote recounted, Coleman continued to lead Franken — but by only 174 votes, notably narrower than the unofficial gap of 215 votes at which the recount had begun. Franken's gain owed much to a swing of 23 votes in the Democratic stronghold of St. Louis County — the result of faintly marked ballots and older optical scanners that failed to read the marks.
Coleman's campaign is challenging the first pictured ballot that was counted for Franken. Franken is challenging the 2nd saying it doesn't show "intent" to vote for Coleman, a usual favorite argument the other way for Democrats. Pictures of other disputed ballots can be seen here. At this point, that is what it might come down to now – challenged ballots.
Franken gained many votes before the recount even started – ballots from a select few Democratic counties that were statistically improbable if not impossible. I don't think there is any "fix in" at this point – the actual recount should be fair. There is a lot of oversight on both sides. But the race is closer than it should be because of the Franken votes he got in the period between November 4 and Wednesday. Currently comedian Franken is only getting names and addresses and challenging rejected absentees in Ramsey County, a stronghold for him. If he is successful at that, Coleman will probably follow up with a similar challenge of rejected absentees in some of his stronger counties. He won't have a choice.
This race seems like it is going to come down to a small handful of disputed votes from a small Minnesota county – maybe in Rock or Scott Counties that won't even start their recounts until Dec. 3. From what I can tell looking from looking at the maps, both sides have counties that "should" be favorable to them; Franken has more to go in Hennepin County (only 6% counted), St. Louis County (42% counted), and Ramsey (15% counted) and some of the outlying counties outside the Minn//St. Paul region that tilted Coleman didn't even begin the process yet. An elections page of the StarTrib has a good interactive map that shows which counties have done what so far and here is their county by county running total. Still a lot of small counties that start Thursday or Friday that leaned Coleman. That said, don't be surprised at all if Franken takes a lead at some point Friday. The question then is whether or not it holds. I'll update this Thursday as events warrant, and we should know a lot more by late tonight.
Everyone keeps talking about the Dec. 2 runoff in Georgia as the one that may decide the 60th seat. That will almost assuredly be settled before Minnesota. Unless of course that race goes into a recount also.
25 Responses for "Surprise! Coleman Lead Keeps Shrinking"
They really should have either a runoff or some kind of priority voting system, where you can pick a 1st and 2nd choice.
rayy…are you highh?
In the first picture, not even one molecule of ink is insider the frankenstien bubble.
If anything…the Libertarian guy should get that vote.
Ben, you need to correct the ballots in trunk story. It's not true.
Minneapolis election director speaks: 'Ballots in my car' story false
http://www.minnpost.com/davidbrauer/2008/11/12/4565/minneapolis_election_director_speaks_ballots_in_my_car_story_false
Franken is lucky that Minnesota has such a lenient policy for counting votes.
http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/11/19/4728/lights_camera_senate_recount_national_and_local_media_brighten_minneapolis_vote-tabulation_scene
Even the observers and lawyers have been instructed by their respective campaigns to not talk to the media. But Minneapolis lawyer Bill Starr, who is volunteering for the Franken campaign, was willing to say a few words. He said he thinks Franken will prevail. His hunch is based on a theory he has.
“People who voted for Coleman are more likely to have taken the SAT in their lifetime,” he said. “They’ve filled in circles. Franken voters are probably not college-educated. They’re new voters and immigrants. They’ve been brought in by groups like ACORN, from the inner cities. They’re more likely to make mistakes. I’ve bounced this off of minority people, and they agree with me.”
fun recount game here:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/
And it shows both sides making a lot of questionable challenges….but of course they are….to act like one side is worse than the other is absurd.
And the trunk story is FALSE. Even Pawlenty admits it. Ohio.com should not allow you to perpetrate that trash.
If Franken was a jackass like Coleman, he would sue you for publicity….except Franken has a better chance of winning, since you are intentionally pushing false stories on an website tied to a major publication.
Hmm. I had not seen the car trunk update. I will take that out of the story. Doesnt change the major parts of the post. Honest mistake.
Chuck, I actually linked to that MPR in the post. If Al Franken would like to sue me, be my guest. You can help him take me on. Maybe ill countersue you for claiming I am "intentionally pushing false stories."
Alex H, Franken is lucky that have such a lenient policy.
OK, car trunk line taken out. Anything else?
Down to 165.
Coleman broke the first rule: If it's not close then they can't cheat.
It's close.
Against failed talkshow host and tax cheat Al "porno-rama" Franken
i just assumed you knew the trunk story was false. you obviously didn't.
on the current pace (24% of votes recounted, Coleman lead has shrunk by about 20%), I would feel good if I am Coleman. Coleman seems on pace to win by like 30 votes….but who knows. It is really going to be decided by less than 100 votes either way.
Either way, good times that there is still a high-profile partisan race to fight over.
NOTE: Coleman has challenged about 30% more ballots than Franken.
Though I am not glad the race is close, I do agree that this is something people like us can watch and yell about after the election.
I think Coleman may be up by like 10-25 after the recount. then come the challenges. who knows really.
I don't see how they could count that first ballot for Franken, the second one is clearly for Coleman. As to the ballot in the car story, when I heard it reported it was stated as a part of the story that while the Coleman camp said that was what they were told the Minneapolis elections director Cynthia Reichert denied it.
It seems the only thing they agree on is the number of ballots in question – 32. It would prove odd if all 32 end up being for Franken. When an election is that close and the person in charge of the election is the opposite party, it's normal for their to be some speculation. Valid or not valid.
30% of votes looked at. Down to 142. Started at 215. A lot of city coutning left to do. Probably wil shrink more tonight if they arent done counting.
What do you care so much for? This is Minnesota not Ohio.
I care because I have credit Franken for getting me more involved (via is humorous political books). Ben cares, because the loss of Franken is the last thing in the 2008 cycle that is keeping him from suicide.
Chuck,
It explains a lot that you credit Franken's books with helping form your political point of view. I'd strongly recommend expanding your reading to include books written by adults.
My take on Al Franken.
He was never funny on Saturday Night Live.
If Eddie Murphy was running against Coleman…I would not be so upset. (Even with the transvestite hooker thing Eddies has).
131.
Largebill,
I believe (not totally sure, though), you were one of the people that said you would cease and desist from this blogosphere when your boy McCain was crushed. And if that wasnt you, you should just quit anyway.
Franken camp claiming:
1) Coleman is challenging ballots where person voted for McCain and Franken…saying that could not be a vote for Franken.
2) Lead under 100.
Update. 47% counted. Coleman by 137. Challenges 444 for Franken, 432 for Coleman.
Latest update, end of the counting day Friday.
64% recounted. Coleman +120. Challenges – 821 for Coleman, 848 by Franken. Both sides making absurd challenges. Still a lot of city vote left.
Are the citizens of Minnesota this dumb? Al Franken? Why not Angelina Jolie or Babs or Michael Moore?
67% in. Coleman +180
Coleman +209, 71% votes in
challenges, Franken 1159 Coleman 1304
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