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Second Guessing: Part II
- Filed under: McCain, Presidential
- Date: Nov 17,2008
As we found out by looking at the final outcome, it didn't really matter who ended up being the vice presidential nominees in 2008. It usually doesn't, but it is always something to talk about during the natural down periods of a presidential campaign. However, this year was a little different in the respect that a lot of attention was paid to one of the vice presidential candidates.
As someone who backed the Sarah Palin pick and discussed the possibility of it way back when, my natural instinct is to defend it. With everything as it was at the time of the choice, looking back I still would have been for it. She was the best of the bunch.
Look at the others that John McCain was considering: Joe Lieberman. Tim Pawlenty. Tom Ridge. Mitt Romney. Lieberman, though he was a great solider for McCain would have enthused the base less than McCain and there is no evidence he would have brought in any crossover votes. Pawlenty? You think he could have made a difference? One of Tom Ridge's big selling points was that he could bring Pennsylvania into play. McCain lost by 11% there. Ridge maybe, and I stress maybe, could have helped marginally there. Not enough to make a significant impact, especially considering McCain did what he thought he had to in many Western PA counties. Romney could have been solid during the economic crisis that no one predicted, but people were still looking at the top of the ticket for answers, not the bottom. I also think the Democrats would have turned Romney into an "evil CEO" who was part of the problem. The hatred between McCain and Romney could not have been more clear during the GOP primary season. That really only left one pick at the time. McCain was trailing at the time, needed a huge splash, and had to hope to catch lightning in a bottle. He made his splash alright.
Could the initial roll out have been better? Yeah. Could she have performed better in a couple of interviews? Yeah. Team McCain tried to control her and script her way too much. They could have also been more effective at flipping her lack of experience back on Obama. But she did a lot to help McCain. He couldn't raise money. That problem was over in an instant. Palin drew crowds McCain could have only dreamed and people left her events fired up, again something McCain himself wasn't doing. People started volunteering. She was thrown right into the fire, but the surprise announcement was the only way to do it. Democrats were caught off guard and then genuinely scared after her convention speech. They were. You and I both know it. Hence the absolute savage treatment she got in the media (sorry, that is not what this post is about).
History will probably forget, but the McCain / Palin ticket was leading before Lehman Brothers fell and the Wall Street collapse started. Sarah Palin did her job and got the numbers to where they were. External events made it a moot point and made what may – may – have been a successful campaign powerless to do anything. Exit polls showed that those voters who said Palin was an important factor broke for McCain. Those for whom it wasn't went against him. Things would have turned out worse for the GOP if McCain had picked any of the above – by at least a couple million votes nationwide. In the end they didn't win, but Palin most certainly was not the reason. All the juvenile finger pointing by the McCain staff won't change that. It is both sad and infuriating that some people are out there spreading trash about Palin in order to try and save McCain or themselves.
As for Barack Obama, there really isn't second guessing to be had. He got almost 53% of the vote. As it turned out, he could have pretty much picked anyone on his short list and been okay. The Constitution said he had to pick someone to run with that was over 35 and not from the same state as him, so he did. Joe Biden tried his best a few times to throw a wrench into the big plan but the general mood and landscape prevented him from being a success in that regard.
There is a natural follow up to this post asking what is next for Governor Palin. In due course.
13 Responses for "Second Guessing: Part II"
Speaking solely from my personal experience, I believe the Palin pick was one of the reasons McCain lost the election. Four people in my office (all registered Republicans; more fiscal than social republicans) either did not vote for president or voted for Obama because they did not want Palin one heartbeat away from the presidency. Romney or Ridge probably would have turned some of the following states red; Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada (and maybe even Omaha Nebraska). Phrased differently, picking Romney or Ridge would not have cost McCain one red state and probably would have turned at least one blue state red. As for the "Obama only won because the economy tanked" angle; good luck making sure the rest of the world gets the "no economic turmoil, wars, or terrorist attacks during a presidential election" memo. Candidates must campaign as the world turns and roll with the punches. I'm sure there are plenty of Tampa Bay Rays fans that want to argue that their team would have come back to win it all if it wasn't for the rain delay in Game 5. However, any good Philly fan would probably say the Phillies also had to deal with the rain delay and at the end of the day the game is played and won on the field of play. Btw, can we get an in depth post on the summit county republican election results. You're about the only person who does a good job analyzing the local party. I'm sure you have lots to say regarding the results (especially the loss of the engineers office and all the jobs that come with it). thanks.
That is not true Jimmy V. McCain got killed in a lot of those states. A VP pick isnt going to such a difference.
She may have turned a few people off but she also got at least the same number of people to support McCain who had been reluctant to do so.
You need a new poll question.
I refuse to buy into this notion that this woman is stupid or something else more sinster. The way she has made her way through life and politics say to me that this is a capable human with amazing political instincts. She isnt a famous name or from money.
For that I am willing to give her a chance in the future. Having 2 days to prepare and then being thrust head first into the national stage and still managing to bring something to the table was remarkable.
John McCain was the reason we lost.
Obama's campaign was leaking oil and I truly believe he would have lost but then the Wall Street fiasco hit and McCain had no chance regardless of who the VP candidate was. I have no great passion about Palin one way or the other only disdain for the press which went on a witch hunt in their attempt to destroy her.
I'm turning into a broken record but the Palin pick was a good one that was undercut by McCain's support of the bailout. The 'maverick' label would have been strenghtened with her but went right out the window when he didn't rail against the 700 billion.
Jimmy V
There is a Republican Party in Summit County?
Coming soon.
Jimmy v I find that hard to believe. I agree that McCain's run off to Washington to do the people's work was a back fire. I thought it would work I was wrong, but when he supported the bail out and the economy started to tank, that's when the campaign went out the window.
I'm sorry guys but if you can't handle Katie Couric how are you going to deal with that there Putin guy up there who I can see from my porch? She was a joke from day one and most women I know were offended that the Repubs thought that they would be swayed by the choice since Hillary was left off the Dem ticket.Asking someone what they read is not a "gotcha" question! Sarah couldn't even make something up.Her poor grammar and jumbled syntax only exasperated her obvious linguistic limitations.Mccain's choice of her was the crass political calculation that Rove himself predicted Obama would cave to! Country first, indeed!
Ben, if you order any "Palin 2012" t-shirts, please put me down for a large.
Xl for me!
I'll take an XL.
"History will probably forget, but the McCain / Palin ticket was leading before Lehman Brothers fell and the Wall Street collapse started."
Should read:
"History will probably forget, but the McCain / Palin ticket was leading before Palin opened her mouth."
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