Loading ...
The Bottom.
- Filed under: Republicans '08
- Date: Nov 6,2008
While I am still formulating a lot of the post election themes in my mind (and there are many), one thing sticks out right away.
Politics is cyclical. Four years ago, we reelected a shaky GOP incumbent president. We added a couple House seats. We had 55 Republican Senators. Gone, gone, and really gone. The Republican Party ran Washington and was on top of the world. It couldn't be more different as we sit here today.
Look back to the stunning pickups of 2002 that led to the retake over of the Senate. The key group that was the key and helped win back control and where they are now: Sununu in New Hampshire (lost Tuesday), Allard in Colorado (retired, seat lost), Dole in North Carolina (lost Tuesday), and Talent in Missouri (lost in the special election two years ago). Only Norm Coleman in Minnesota, the least probable winner of them all, still stands, and that is still in some question. And he only still hangs around because of who ran against him. We challenged Mary Landrieu hard in 2002 and she skated this time. Freshman Mark Pryor in Arkansas wasn't even challenged. When you look at the yearly breakdown of Senate classes, prospects for gains look dubious at best until 2012. The House is different; where a lot of the losses have occurred can be gained back quickly with the right message. A ray of light is that if you are a Republican House incumbent and you survived 2006 and 2008, you are not going to lose barring a self-inflicted wound. The weak seats have been flushed out.
One major problem the Republicans face (among many) is geography. In 2000, 2004, and 2008, they tried to thread the needle on the Electoral Map. It wasn't a choice, it was a necessity. In 2000 and 2004 they found a way. In 2008, not that it mattered, but it wouldn't have worked. The Southwest is slipping away, though Tuesday's margins make a bad situation look worse than it is. Conservatives are extinct in New England, save for Judd Gregg in New Hampshire. The Upper Midwest has been a dead zone. A hard push is going to have to made into these areas, specifically Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We have won in these two regions previously and will have to figure out how to do so again. The same coalition can't be relied on forever. Democrats tried in 2004 and it didn't work. Republicans tried in 2008 with worse results. However, one stupid argument that needs debunking is that that Obama was so smart to have played in "red states" while McCain only was on defense for the most part. Of course that happened; if President-elect Government only tried to win "blue states" he couldn't have won the election. Conversely, yes, McCain was defending states that Bush won in 2004. It will be the opposite in 2012. Obama will be defending the places he won. Republicans must also take advantage of the reapportionment of electoral votes after the 2010 Census.
The point is exactly 16 years ago yesterday, Republicans found themselves in the exact same position they do today. November 5, 1992 George H.W. Bush lost and the GOP was completely out of power. How fast the comeback is depends on what the next steps are. If proper steps are taken, we will be back sooner rather than later. If not, it could be awhile. Nothing lasts forever. Both sides know that. Republicans lost this election fair and square and we need to look at ourselves as to the reasons why. There is nowhere to go but up. And the sooner the better.
8 Responses for "The Bottom."
Just as an FYI, here are the Senate seats up in 2010:
D (14)
Bayh IN, Boxer CA, Dodd CT, Dorgan ND, Feingold WI, Inhoye HI, Leahy VT, Lincoln AR, Mikluski MI, Obama replacemnt IL, Reid NV, Salazar CO, Schumer NY, Wyden OR
Not many targets.
R (19)
Bennett UT, Bond MO, Brownback KS, Bunning KY, Burr NC, Coburn OK, Crapo ID, DeMint SC, Grassley IA, Gregg NH, Isakson GA, Martinez FL, McCain AZ, Murkowski AK, Shelby AL, Specter PA, Thune SD, Vitter LA, Voinovich OH
You have to assume Bond and McCain will retire and maybe Bunning. All three would be competetive open seats. Burr, Martinez, Murkowski, Specter, Vitter, and Voinovich will be targeted.
Its obviously way early, but that does not look promising.
Does this mean Carol Windbag Klinger is going to call for the removal of Stark County republican Chairman Curt Braden??
Last year they lost the Canton Mayor's seat held by Weir Creighton, now this……….
Boccieri wins with 55% of votes
Senator beats Schuring to become the first Democrat to represent the 16th District in 60 years
By Stephanie Warsmith
Beacon Journal staff writer
This will be the first time in 60 years that a Democrat has represented the 16th District.
What I don't see in your post is policy reasons for the GOP's loss.
Voters are getting more informed in a digital era. It is more and more difficult to fool them with bluster.
The GOP is now running on ideological fumes. Republicans have 20th century answers to 21st century problems. The GOP has now become bascially a southern regional party.
I've been encouraging you, a young GOP'er, to leave the extremism of your party behind and join the ranks of a more moderate conservative movement that is sure to form.
Add environmentalism policy to a more libertarian foreign policy, combine that with genuine fiscal responsibility, drop the dead-end-street invasion of privacy issues, embrace science fully….and maybe in 12 years or so…conservatism will make a comeback.
Just think Ben, you could be in on the ground floor of a completely re-invented conservative party.
The cyclical stuff you're counting on though…..ain't gonna' happen.
The cyclical stuff is already happening, Reverend. Unless Obama can turn the economy around very quickly people will want change again in two years. The biggest ever post-Election Day drop in the markets doesn't bode well.
I also don't hear any talk of stealing the election. Unlike the Dems, we're not a party of cry-babys.
Hey New Summit Putz's, I guess you will continue to give the Arshinkoff line–"oh, it wasnt that bad, we won some judges". Well its time for all the GOP dinosaur leadership to go. They are totally out of touch and dont understant that the public want transparency and action that solves their problems. The public doesnt care about what the GOP did 40 years ago. We are awaiting Arshinkoff et al to resign and turn over the reigns to fresh blood.
Cycles always happen, and neither party addresses why because they never accomplish what they promise and people will give them at least four but usually 8 years before they give the other side their shot. Which then translates to four years of saying either they need more time or they need more in Congress, followed by four more years of excuses and then? The next party starts all over again, rinse, repeat.
Why? Because we don't pay enough attention to Congress and because Congress no matter which party is in charge is the problem.
Old Summit R,
Klinger and her group of misfits however are not the answer you seek. Klinger has no political skills and no ability to bring people together. throughout her tenure on city council, she has alienated fellow Republicans who continually passed her over for council president, much to her dismay. Her lone compatriots on city council are Democrat Kathy Hummel and Democrat Diane Colavecchuio. Klinger has failed to get even one Republican elected to council, and has nver raised any money for any candidates, or even her own race.
She refuses to even recruit candidates for council.
When she does recruit a candidate every great while, Carol Klinger's forte is getting a no-name candidate who refuses to campaign, and then expecting the powers that be to shower them with money (not money that she raised but other peoples money).
And then she gets upset when they don't get lavished with moeny.
Leave a comment