Schuring and Boccieri Fighting to the Finish

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Boccieri / Schuring, Congress
• Date: Oct 21,2008

Talked to two people not associated with either campaign (obviously I did not talk to John Boccieri's campaign) or involved in the race for the 16th but people who would know. Both agreed that the public polling we have seen is not indicative of the race. This contest is in the margin of error and will end up being a win for either side with a winning percentage no bigger than 52%….and really depends on what happens on the national level over the last two weeks. It is one of those races, and neither side wants to hear this even though they know it is true, where external events and the national numbers will drive the outcome of the race. Sure, you can do some stuff around the edges – give good interviews, knock on doors, have some good mailers, etc. But in the end, that last little wind of the final day or two that isn't noticeable until after the election looms very large in this race and others just like it.

The battle for the 16th will come down to the part Medina County where right about 17% of the district is contained. Schuring will do well (better than most Republicans) in Stark County, which is just under half the district. Boccieri will over perform Democrats in Wayne and Ashland. That leaves Medina as the swing.

This is close race. If the Democrats win this one, it is probably going to be in their possession for a long, long time. Think they won't redraw the lines here to shift it back towards Boccieri's home base if they can after 2010? If that happens, the seat is gone. Gone……….

Kyle attended the debate on Thursday and then wrote about it. Three things I would add:

*No, the I-90 bridge isn't in the district. I understand the district isn't on an "island," but the first job of the representative of the district is to take care of the people there. Boccieri also said the debate was in Ashland County; it took place in Medina County. I'll cut Boccieri some slack on these two points; he is new to these parts and may have not known better.

*Schuring also didn't just stick to party line talk when discussing the economy. He talked about policies such as increasing collaboration between local and state governments and creating economic empowerment zones to improve the training of workers. He has been talking about the zones and local alliances a lot throughout this campaign. I remember hearing about these exact things when I interviewed him in early August when he unveiled his economic plan for the 16th.

*I also found it interesting that Schuring discussed his support of fair trade. Schuring pointed out that countries we trade with should not be allowed to have low environmental and workplace standards. That is not something you always hear a Republican say.

Today, the Beacon endorsed Schuring. I don't usually take note of these because I believe that people make up their own minds and don't depend on 5 people sitting in some boardroom to tell them what to do. But because I know Kyle would have already had a post up touting it had it gone to Boccieri, I'll post it just to stick it to him. They said, in part, about Boccieri: That said, Boccieri has squandered an opportunity to show leadership. His record in office is thin, his campaign little more than a collection of pre-packaged talking points.

That is kind of what I have always thought.