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First and Ten…….
- Filed under: Presidential
- Date: Oct 12,2008
Well it is getting late in the 4th quarter down at the football stadium. Here is what is going on in the championship game.
The defending champions just got the ball back inside their 20 with 2:23 left in the 4th. They are down by 10, with one timeout and the two minute warning left. The opposing team is hungry. They've lost the last two games to their rivals in close calls (one of which was correctly decided by the replay booth) and decided they weren't going to let it happen again. This time they have the home field advantage. The home fans are rabid. Their front office went out and spent a ton of money on building the team and buying new players and bringing in tons of bandwagon fans.
The champions have made a few uncharacteristic mistakes this game. The first quarter started out bad, but the team rebounded to pull close at halftime. Midway through the third, the champions actually pulled ahead - the new unheralded free agent caught a long touchdown, then scored on a two point conversion. Then the bottom dropped out. A couple of crucial interceptions from the veteran quarterback. They couldn't jump on a few fumbles the other team left on the field. The replay booth messed up a call. The officiating has been horrible by the mainstream referees. A couple of cheap shots were missed by the officials. Some usually reliable players are under performing their past showings. Out of the control of the visitors, a seismic event took place at the start of the 4th that really damaged their chances (okay, this is the only one I couldn't think of analogy for). But the challengers keep kicking field goals, they haven't been able to knock out the champs yet.
The visiting fans in the suites and in the first few rows who could afford to go to the game have started to clear out - they don't want to be associated with the defending champions in case they are dethroned. They are prematurely pointing fingers at the coach, GM, and quarterback and anyone else they can think of. But the funny thing is the real fans are sticking around to see the end on television. They believe in their team. They know the game looks bad right now. But strange things have happened at the very end before. These are the real fans, who never stop believing, because they really truly believe their team has the best players, the best ideas for how to win the game. They aren't ready to give up yet, and they won't until the clock strikes triple zero. They are tired of the TV commentators telling them and their squad to give up and just take a knee, while trying to get them to turn off their sets and get ready for next season and accept defeat; those homers in the booth always cheer against the champs, they are former players for the other side. These same fans don't care about next season or the one after and the potential good that may come out of losing this game. They really don't care for the challengers and have a bad feeling about what they will do if they win.
Despite it all, back on the field, the champions solider on. The defense isn't in a prevent, they are still blitzing, afraid of a long play to turn this game around, knowing the perfect storm that has helped them build their current lead may not last the final 2:23.
I don't know how this game ends yet, none of us do, but I am feeling better than a lot of our fans. So I'll keep watching and believing as the champions try to hang on against all odds down at the stadium.
13 Responses for "First and Ten……."
[...] mostly because I have to go now, let's end with a bad football analogy. (sorry Ben) Tags: mccain, obama, [...]
well written. I think we are going to see SERIOUS closure in the polls here soon enough.
I find the fumbling analogies and the hit on the MSM quite amusing. The MSM have pounded the non-existant Ayers play for almost 12 months and yet McCains Keating 5 and voting record hardly ever come up. Considering the defending champs have virtually destroyed the country, have a totally inept back-up QB according to their OWN sports writers, and they have been lucky that till this point no one has been paying attention to the multiple intentional fouls they've gotten away with. Final analysis: Obama 23, McCain 17.
First and 10, Let's do it again!
Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Gap NarrowsObama leads, 50% to 43%USA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
Likely Voter Estimates
Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election.
ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%… DEVELOPING…
Here is what I think.
I think this race is around Obama +3.5 to 4 right now, prob closer to 4. Sonewhere around there. I think McCain has seen the bottom. The economy, barring something unforseen, has hurt him as much as it can. There isnt anywhere to go but up.
This race at the presidential level is not a blowout. I as well, agreeing with Marc from above, feel there will start to be some closure in the polls. How much depends on what happens in the debate and other external events. But it will happen. I think both sides expect it. I think that unlike 2004, the undecided vote will shift largely one way or the other. As a devoted partisan, I dont know which way that will be since I dont think that way, though I have a pretty good guess. As an aside, I feel that polls are VASTLY overstating Dem turnout. I would stake anything on that is not more than D +6 on Election Day - being generous (dead even in 04, +3 dem in 06). Polls that are sampling 8-9% more D than R are nothing more than absolute trash.
More than anything, you just need to watch where the campaigns are going in these last 3 weeks. That tells you what their polling is telling them.
Now, down ticket, that might be a different story.
That Gallup is a perfect example. Their RV model had Obama up 12 I think late last week. Tucked into their release today they say that using their LV model shows it +4. -4 for us with 3 weeks out is hardly insurmountable.
Not saying Gallup is the standard bearer, because they arent, but these people want to start getting accurate. Almost no one remembers what they said the race was on September 1. People do remember what they say going into election day.
Liked your analogy alright.
However, there is a bit of wishful thinking about the polls.
McCain pulled out of Michigan. That's a big deal. Obama is competing and leading in N. Carolina. Obama is close in Indiana and within striking distance in WEST VIRGINIA.
And some day…maybe…you'll see that the refs actually favor your team.
What could possibly bring undecideds to your team in the closing minutes? Ayers, Wright, Rezko? In other words fear smears by association? That stuff only works on the base and Sarahcuda has been feeding that demographic daily.
My opinion at this point, I'm sure unsurprisingly to you, is that Obama will get over 350 electoral votes. That would be a mandate.
Blah, Blah, Blah, and furthermore blah, blab, blah.
Lets go McCain!
I don't approve of you use of Ohio State to portray the Republicans. You should have used Brady Quinn holding Sarah Palin's hand.
Wah, wah, wah. Oh and by the way, wah, wah, wah, and let me guess you don't approve this message?
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