Loading ...
Debate #1
- Filed under: Presidential
- Date: Sep 22,2008
Friday. To focus on foreign policy.
Contrary to popular belief, I think that this emphasis up first helps Barack Obama. He has to go out and make those undecideds see him as a potential commander-in-chief. That is his major hurdle he has to cross if he is going to win - you can throw pretty much everything else away. If foreign policy was third up in the debate rotation, Obama could have come in damaged because of the outcome of the first two. That can't happen now due to the format.
I am under the impression that realistically the vast majority of voters have decided who they are going to vote for whether they are telling pollsters that or not - somewhere around 92% or so, and that is probably a low ball estimate. So say 8% truly don't know. Those people (or whatever the real true undecided percentage is) are waiting to be convinced by Obama. They are still skeptical of him. Friday night is his biggest chance to win them over. Obama falling flat in the first one will cement the minds of a lot of those 8% against him, probably in an irreversible state making winning in November very difficult with undecideds going heavy for McCain. Conversely, if he has a great performance Friday and follows that up with two more, the race will swing his way, probably decisively, by the middle of October. In some quarters the thinking is Obama just has to show up and prove he belongs; I couldn't disagree more. I feel he has to excel to win over the skeptics. Holding his own won't be enough for them. If Obama does indeed deliver the favorite phrase of Kyle - the "knock it out of the park" type performance in all three debates (but especially the first), John McCain will be in a position where there won't be a whole lot he can do except hope for some unlikely external event that damages Obama severely. This is different from 2004, which was truly a base, GOTV election and Bush or Kerry could have done nothing to lose their supporters; there are moving parts this time around that are constantly changing. The debates will matter this time; they really didn't last time around. I've kind of changed my tune on this the last month or so in regards to the 2008 debates. Both sides have their 42-43% of solid, unwavering support and 4-5% of very probable backers (still mildly persuadable) in hand and need to go hard after the rest through the debate series.
McCain is running a great campaign - I'd say an 8 out of 10 up until this point. To win, he is going to have to get that up to a 9 or above. It means he is going to have to take some more risks still, and some of those risks will be what he says and what he leaves out in the three debates. For his part, we already know how the media will say Friday night went for McCain before it even starts. He has to do what he has been doing and talk over the media and go right to the people and not speak in rehearsed Obama-like sound bites. He has to look like he is ready from Day One, drawing the contrast. That said, how the debate affects (effects? I never know on that usage) the horse race is really up to The Lord.
And if you didn't notice, we do have a related poll question in the sidebar.
Hey, I missed the Emmy Awards Sunday. Did Obama win another Emmy, this time for "Best Fake Campaign Event" for the rally in Germany?
15 Responses for "Debate #1"
"McCain is running a great campaign - I'd say an 8 out of 10 up until this point."
Now Ben….I know you're talented and all….but I never knew you were so comedic.
Is this the same John McCain who couldn't find his ass with both hands from June til September?
Or is this the same John McCain who has been lying with the frequency of a crack-addict the last three weeks?
"running a great campaign"….please….stop….my sides are splitting.
60,000 in Florida for Palin yesterday!!!!1
I dont know if it was 60,000 - but there was a lot of people there. A lot.
yeah, Rev. McCain has run a good campaign. You want to talk about campaign lies, huh?
I want to talk about staight talk.
I've detected a new dourness in your posts that hint at your feelings for a Mccain win are shrinking. Am I correct?
Say it isnt so Ben!!
I turned the tv on to watch the Emmy's, I saw Oprah. I turned it off.
I could see the first debate being a push. Both sides have an incentive to play it safe and not take too many chances early. However, Jim Lehrer is probably the best moderator we'll see and I'm sure he'll have tough questions.
McCain is now competitive in New York, Pa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconson, he is crushing Fl, he'll win Ohio by at least 10 points. More women believe Mccain understands their needs more than obama, which closed like a 30 percent gap in july, a quarter of hillary women are voting McCain, white blue collar are voting mccain, jeish population is strongly moving to mccain.
The longer this race goes on the more dismal news for Obama. More and more internals are shifting strongly to McCain. Any other democrat would have won the presidency this year. dems nominated the one person who cannot win.
I said it before, McCain wins this going away,,,
Poll: Barack Obama could lose six percentage points on election day for being black
By CORKY SIEMASZKO
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER
Updated Monday, September 22nd 2008, 10:13 AM
Brandon/AP
Sen. Barack Obama speaks about race during a press conference on March 18, 2008.
Sabo/News
White supremists protest in Kingston, NY, in 2005
Six percentage points is the price Barack Obama could pay on election day for being black.
That disturbing calculation was found in a groundbreaking new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll conducted with Stanford University which probes the effect of the Democratic presidential candidate's race on his historic campaign for the White House.
"There's a penalty for prejudice, and it's not trivial," Stanford University political scientist Paul Sniderman told the AP.
Get serious Cincity. McCain is not competitive in NY. It undercuts the rest of your entire argumment.
Julie, let me address you and DA here.
First, I expect a weird occurence tomorrow where Obama gets to +2 or even +3 in Rasmussen while McCain picks up 1 (probably, maybe 2) in Gallup - again barring weird samples that occured Monday.
Okay. Where is the race. As of now.
Last weekend McCain had two nails in Obama's coffin and was bringing down the hammer on the 3rd. he was in a great shape, and dare I say it, maybe even pulling away. Had the election been last Tuesday, McCain wins. By 3-4%. Of course it wasnt. Then Obama get the lifeline of the campaign with the Wall Street stuff. McCain had a horrible week. Maybe the worst since he launched his campaign. It happens. Or at least a horrible M-F. As of now…
I believe McCain is going to win Ohio. Same with Florida. I think Florida runs about +6 for McCain above the national average.
I think it is about that time that McCain will pull out of Iowa. I'd be surprised to see him there much more. New Mexico seems to be getting away, though I am not quite at Iowa status on that one. If Obama gets both of those then McCain's back is against the wall.
I am also about to ready to throw in the towel on MI. Michigan is weird in the polling sense that it usually improves from summer to fall for Democrats….anyone care to guess why? I think we are seeing that.
Minnesota and Virginia. I think both will stay close (VA more so) but retreat to their norms the last two weeks. Sorry, I just cant see Obama winning there in VA as of now. actually there is no need for a "sorry" there. McCain will not win in Minnesota. It isnt happening. I frankly wouldnt even be visiting there.
It's all about Colorado. Tell me who wins CO and i'll tell you who won. It is more clear to me than ever Obama is going for the win w/o Ohio. I know PPP will have a poll showing Obama ahead tomorrow there, but dont get too distressed over it. They have been pro D all cycle, as they are a D pollster. Theyve been out teasing their poll as bad news for McCain to build suspense for it. It is not polling, it is campaigning.
On the positive side, Wisconsin seems to be heading back to the competitive point and I expect McCain to make a heavy play for it. PA is still in that category, but its probably Obama by a slim 2-3% there now. I think McCain has pulled to around even in NH. He has to visit PA and NH a lot. He has to have some targets and cant be playing defense everywhere state wise.
McCain is holding strong in the musts of OH and FL. Its those second tier states where the trouble is - VA, CO, NM, NV. Like I said McCain shouldnt visit MN - he really shouldnt go to Florida much more. If Obama wants to go there or dispatch Biden there, let him. He wont win it.
Sorry if I give off negative vibes, but I am more interested in telling it how I think it is as opposed to being a cheerleader. My opinion changes at least daily from "we are in a good position" to "i think we might be in trouble." Today was the latter. Tomorrow may be different.
I preach all the time not to get too high or low based on every poll. Most of them are trash. When you get an onslaught of them everyday, it is hard to follow that though.
Obama is going to take a small lead into Friday's debate. We are still in a good overall position if you think about it.
If these candidates had any sand in their pants they'd switch the debates around and focus on the economy Friday.
If McCain were smart, he'd start making noise about just that today.
Wow…..Mcain must have won last nights Rasmussen poll by 5% to stay even.
They do need to address the economy, but they need more time and information before going out on a limb, which is what one or both og them will need to do.
From their perspective I agree with you Anne, but as a voter I'd be interested in hearing what they think before Congress acts.
Bush hasn't waited, why should we give these two more time?
Leave a comment