2008 Senate Preview, June Update

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: National Landscape 2008
• Date: Jun 21,2008

Part I, March 18

Since the last writing in March, a few Senate races have shifted. But just like the last writing, Democrats are going to make gains, it is just a question of how much. If Republicans escape only losing three seats then that will be a moral victory. Here are the races that have been updated:

Alaska: A recent poll showed incumbent since 1968 Ted Stevens losing to his challenger Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich 51-44. Small poll, only 269 people in the sample, but it shows trouble for Stevens. It would be a monumental win for the Democrats to knock off the corrupt Stevens during a presidential year, and it could happen. Until more polling surfaces on this race, this has to be treated as an outlier, but this is a race to watch. However, if Republicans lose a ton of seats in November, I personally wouldn't mind seeing Stevens go down. No one deserves to lose their position in Washington more.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION TO LEAN REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Colorado: Polls are showing Republican Bob Schafer trailing Boulder liberal Mark Udall. The two are vying to replace the retiring Wayne Allard. Democrats are on the upswing in Colorado and Obama seems to be popular there. Most recent poll has Udall up 9.
TOSS UP TO LEAN DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

Kentucky: Republican Leader Mitch McConnell will have to work harder than he wants to win reelection. A recent poll showed him trailing challenger Bruce Lunsford, but in a presidential year McConnell will be okay. Democrats are still blood thirsty after we beat Tom Daschle (husband of a lobbyist, does Barack Obama know this?) in 2004 and will go all out to beat McConnell. Won't happen.
SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION TO LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Louisiana: Democrat turned Republican John Kennedy doesn't seem to be gaining a lot of traction in his race against Mary Landrieu. Landrieu has won by razor thin margins in her first two elections and there is no reason to think this time around will be any different. Still the Republicans best and really only chance for a pickup this cycle. Will be close, but slight edge to the incumbent right now.
TOSS UP TO LEAN DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

Minnesota: Norm Coleman seems to be gaining the upper hand on Democratic challenger Al Franken. A recent poll confirms that. The disclosure that Franken decided to not pay some taxes has not helped him. This is a race that Coleman can't take for granted with Minnesota looking good for Obama - he has to worry about coattails going against him. Possible wild card: Jesse Ventura is looking at the race. Coleman and Ventura have a history; Ventura beat him in a three way race 37-34 in the 1998 race for Minnesota Governor. However, another recent poll shows Ventura hurting Franken more than Coleman. Democrats will be kicking themselves if the let this one slide away. I recently donated to Coleman (all my contributions can be seen here).
TOSS UP TO LEAN REPUBLICAN RETENTION

New Hampshire: This one hurts me, moving it from a toss-up to Lean Democrat. I had a John Sununu sticker on my car for about a year back in 2002-2003. I have donated to his campaign. I really want him to, and I believe he will close the gap on his opponent Jeanne Shaheen, though it doesn't look too great right now. Sununu won his first term in 2002 dispatching of incumbent Bob Smith in the Republican primary and then reminding voters how much Shaheen raised their taxes when she was governor. That will be harder to do this time around. Sununu has been in tough races before and he is a good campaigner. Historically, Senate rematches go the way they do the first time around which bodes well for Sununu. McCain at the top of the ticket helps Senator Sununu.
TOSS UP TO LEAN DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Rest of the races after the jump…….

New Jersey: There has been some rumblings lately that Republican Dick Zimmer will be able to give a good challenge to Frank Lautenberg. I'll believe it when I see it. Republicans are burned over and over in New Jersey. Lautenberg, as you may recall, was inserted on the ballot late in 2002, after the deadline, to take the place of the disgraced Bob "The Torch" Toricelli. To this day, I am not sure I have seen a more despicable political move. Democrats were desperate to hold on to their already stolen Senate majority and they felt they couldn't afford to lose this seat to Republican Doug Forrester. Lautenberg won, but Democrats still lost the Senate. Recent poll showed the incumbent +9.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION TO LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

North Carolina: This race is closer than Republicans would like, but barring a shocking win for Obama here in November with little to no ticket splitting, Dole will win. She is up against Kay Hagan, who is currently a North Carolina State Senator.
SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION TO LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

The other races with no designation changes:
REPUBLICAN
AL: Jeff Sessions; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
GA: Saxby Chambliss; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
KS: Pat Roberts; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
ME: Susan Collins, LEAN REPUBLICAN RETENTION
MS: Thad Cochran; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
OK: Jim Inhofe; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
OR: Gordon Smith; LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
SC: Lindsey Graham; LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
TN: Lamar!; LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
TX: John Cornyn; LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
WY:Mike Enzi; SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION

DEMOCRATS
AR: Mark Pryor; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
DE: Joe Biden; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
IA: Tom Harkin; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
IL: Dick (T)Durbin; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MA: Forbes Kerry; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MI: Carl Levin; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MT: Max Baucus; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
RI: Jack Reed; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
SD: Tim Johnson; LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
WV: Jay Rockefeller; SAFE DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

OPEN SEATS / SPECIAL ELECTIONS
ID: Jim Risch (Craig); LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
MS: Roger Wicker (Lott special election); LEAN REPUBLICAN RETENTION
NE: Mike Johanns (Hagel); SAFE REPUBLICAN RETENTION
NM: Udall / Pearce (Domenici); LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
VA: M. Warner / Gilmore (J. Warner); LIKELY DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
WY; John Barrasso (Craig Thomas special election); LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Long story, as of now this shakes out to be +4 Democrats (CO, NM, NH, VA). Republicans need to pay special attention ME, MN, MS.