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Obama's Ohio Problem?
- Filed under: Democrats '08, Obama, Ohio 2008
- Date: Jun 9,2008
Dispatch: Many in southern Ohio still wary of Obama
The outcome in Appalachian Ohio, a swing area where residents voted twice each for Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican George W. Bush, could go a long way toward determining who wins Ohio and perhaps the presidency….In this Appalachian town and others along the southern Ohio trail that Hillary Clinton blazed in February, voters such as Rebecca Harper are asking: Now what?….Harper was impressed by Clinton's empathy for the struggling middle class and said she would have voted for her this fall. But now that Barack Obama has sewn up the Democratic nomination, Harper isn't sure whom to support.
This is where Kyle and I have our major 2008 Election disagreement. He lives in some fantasy land where all Clinton voters go for Obama at the end of the day. In reality, we all know that is not the case. Many soft Ohio Democrats will not vote for Obama. Period. Just like some Republicans aren't going to vote for John McCain. Some Democrats are ardent Hillary supporters and think that she got screwed over (she did and should definitely fight to the convention for justice). Some think Obama is too liberal. Others don't like his association with people like Wright and Rezko. And still more people haven't forgotten the "bitter" insult. Sure, most of these voters will vote for the Democrat candidate in the end. But some will not, and it doesn't take a whole lot of them to change things at the ballot box. Just ask people you know about family members, friends, co-workers and others they know who are Democrats that feel this way. He hasn't impressed everyone, and some people are not going to change their minds. I heard it multiple times myself this weekend.
"It was like we meant something to her," said Chuck Denney, 55, of Gallipolis, who works at a nearby power plant and was having lunch last week at the original Bob Evans restaurant in Rio Grande where Hillary Clinton stopped in February.
No, Chuck, you meant nothing to Hillary Clinton. The Clintons care about people in Gallipolis about as much as I care about what happened on the last episode on The Hills (none). However, many people feel like the Clintons do care about them for some reason and Obama doesn't (he cares about people in San Francisco). Mr. Denney isn't alone here. I don't understand it so I can't explain it. On a side note, I drove through Gallipolis once and I have to say I wasn't a big fan. Sorry to all Gallipolis readers.
Many people out there think Obama (pictured, enjoying a nice bike ride) should just not even contest Ohio and try and win other states instead. I can not think of a dumber strategy, and I am fairly certain the professionals running his campaign would agree with me. Ignore the lynch pin of the GOP Electoral Map? Great Idea! Democrats have to - have to - force Republicans to play in Ohio and spend time and resources here and at least try to win. Bush was able to nickel and dime Kerry to death in rural counties in south and west Ohio in 2004 to offset Kerry gains in urban counties. Bush improved in every county in the south of the state from the WV border over to Cincinnati from 2000 (except for communist/socialist Athens County, home of Ohio University). If McCain doesn't have to fight for those votes, then I don't see a conceivable way Obama wins Ohio, unless he wins 360+ Electoral Votes, and in that case Ohio didn't matter anyways. But if Team Obama wants to write off Ohio and place their hopes on flipping multiple other Bush 2004 states, be my guest. I'd love to see our resources go elsewhere and be able to watch TV in October without every commercial being election related or having some MoveOn.org volunteer knock on my door while I am trying to play Madden 2009 (I assume I will be in the middle of a season or dynasty at that time - it is actually possible I will be tired of the new Wii by then).
Ohio Related: Mike DeWine update.
Update: DeWine out of AG race.
23 Responses for "Obama's Ohio Problem?"
I just wrote about something similar here, based on an LA Times article and a column by Bob Novak. McCain should be very very concerned.
I was sad to see Senator DeWine go in 2006 but he just caught up in a title wave and would have lost to any Democrat on the ballot. He wasn't the most conservative but he fought for Ohio and brought home money through his seat on Appropriations. If other states are going to get federal money through there we should too and he was on the committee.
Both sides have concerns here in 2008; Jill your link is a good example but I tend to think that Ben's theory of Obama having more of a test is right.
I'm not saying McCain doesnt have problems - he does. For sure. But when I talk to people, the Republicans who don't like McCain always end the conversation by saying "but what choice do I have," saying they will vote for McCain. The conflicted Democrats dont say that.
Yes, Dewine was going to lose to anyone in 2006. It was that type of year.
Ben, it is true it would seem foolish for the Democrats to ignore the crucial electoral votes in Ohio.
I agree with your analysis that most Republicans of any stripe will vote for McCain at the end of the day. I think it is also true that most Democrats will end up voting for Obama. The crtical factor will be what percent of Democrats will not end up voting the party line. I believe it will be less than you think, and I think the VP candidate Obama selects will be more crucial than the VP chosen by McCain.
Hillary and Bill's support will also be watched and endlessly analyzed and I think there are a few Dems. who will be influenced by them. But since the nominee is African American, much of Bill's popularity in the African American community is now of little use on the campaign trail.
I voted for Bush in 2000 but not in 2004. There is no shot in hell i will vote for h obama. i would have voted for clinton but no obama. probably not either mac but better chance
madden 08 for the wii is not fun
WASHINGTONMONTHLY.COM:
WINNING OHIO….So how does John McCain win Ohio? In the previous post
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_06/013873.php)
I basically said it was impossible, but as near as I can tell McCain has already settled on a strategy: he's going to run a very negative campaign in which he hammers on Obama as (a) naive about foreign policy, (b) unqualified to command the military, and (c) ready to surrender to al-Qaeda and squander the sacrifices of thousands of brave American soldiers. His supporters will help out with plenty of talk about terrorist fist jabs and "slips of the tongue" in which they call him Osama on national TV.
I don't think it'll work, but it's pretty obvious that this is the direction things are going. McCain seems likely to make this into a pretty ugly campaign.
I for one, will not vote for Obama - way to liberal even for this democrat. And I can assure you that I have spoken to many people that feel the same way. Most won't say so in public for fear of being called a racist - but they are voting for McCain here in Ohio and I believe elsewhere. Obama is in for a big awaking come Novemeber.
and Ben we talked a lot this weekend. I feel a bit demoralized about Ohio. And I have been also saying just don't worry too much about it (focus on the West and Michigan).
But the beauty for Obama will be that he can outspend McCain so bad that he will be able to push him in Ohio, even if he doesnt truly think he can win. This is going to go to the rumored Obama 25 state strategy which will cause McCain to waste limited resources in places like North Carolina, instead of being able to focus on the few key states.
Lastly, I am going to not directly say what Obama's true problem is, because I will be attacked.
But I think "it" is the true and obvious problem Obama faces in Ohio.
….okay, not done.
this premise that Obama is way more liberal than Hillary is flawed. Obama was more moderate on domestic issues (see: health care). He was more "liberal" in 2 areas:
1) he would consider raising taxes on individuals making more than $100,000 to fix SS
2) he would be more willing to talk with foreign leaders….it was my #1 problem with Hillary…..but Obama's is a position that according to Gallup, 60% of Americans agree with.
And remember, she was more "liberal" on health care and education.
All this talk is nonsense and possibly an excuse for dealing with the "it" factor.
well there is no doubt that the obama $ can keep him competitive in states that they probably know they wont win at the end of the day, and they can spend at will.
major problem for McCain. I'd say almost if not more than the Republican numbers so much in the tank.
obama's problem is the "Bubba" problem.
Nice blog Ben. True wary person of Obama in northeastern Ohio, 100%..haha. Theres about 5 reasons people wont vote for him, 1 hes too far left, 2 hes not experienced, 3 hes black, and 4 his past comments and affilations. I know the race card is supposed to be way over and done with but I think it can work for him or against him. Especially in Ohio.
Good title to a blog and good first paragraph of which I think you did a good job formulating other peoples thoughts. Then your snarky 25yr oldness shows up to give a travel review of gallipolis. Pretty lame and you lost all credibility.
I'm a Richardson then Edwards then Clinton supporter and I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for in the coming national election. Obama is very bland to me and I have no idea what his positives are. I have a good feel of his negatives. It seemed to me his campaign was built around "you don't want ANOTHER Clinton in the white house, do you!?" He got in Oprah's big hip pocket and away he went. I don't want my president chosen as a book of the month club either…
Great he knocked out the leading candidate with the most money by playing on people's doubts. Now whats his tact with McCain?!
The race factor won't be alleviated until it's dealt with honestly in the media. Most whites aren't afraid of blowhard preachers but they don't like affirmative action, the idea of reparations, etc.
Considering Obama's former church's mission statement, his interest in social justice and, yes, his color, wouldn't it seem natural to ask him about these issues?
Either the media is hesitant to do so because they know most Americans won't like Obama's answers, or they're intimidated by the racial charlatans.
Want to know why Ohio has slipped so badly and is resembling Mississippi more and more each year?
Read the above comments.
John Kerry almost, maybe not even almost, won Ohio running against an incumbent "war president".
Anti-progressive wishful thinking notwithstanding….Ohio voters have a clear choice….four more years of a cloned Bush presidency in the person of John McCain….or a new way forward. Just as the voters of Ohio sh?tcanned the moron Taft and the weasel Blackwell….so too the GOP presidential candidate in 2008.
That's right, Reverend. If anyone mentions race or any racial issue in regard to our first serious black presidential candidate, they are obviously racists.
Mike DeWine was a fine public servant and I hope someday he reenters the political arena. I am sorry he will not be running for Attorney General.
For years the Dems. complained about the unfairness of being outspent and that Reps. merely bought elections(no argument here) but when the shoe is on the other foot life is good.
Ben, I'm hearing the same things you are up here in NWO, the majority of Obama supporters are the ones who supported him during the primary. The Republicans seem more resigned to voting for McCain and quite a few Democrats say off the record they are voting for McCain or not voting.
More than the race issue the one I hear most is trust, many don't like McCain but they feel they know what to expect. Few are falling for the "third Bush term" because they know that Congress has some responsibility for the way things are right now as well.
It is however early yet, and who makes the largest blunders from now until November could have a role in the end result.
[...] be able to watch great videos like this snarky number from the MIGOP, “What Took You So Long?” Obama writes off Ohio and Florida? So much for his supposed “50 57 state strategy,” I guess. In related news, Obama has apparently [...]
Gentlemen
There are a lot of folks like me in southeastern Ohio who previsouly voted for Bill Clinton. My family thoughout its history (Coal miners and Steelworkers) voted Democratic. This area has always been made up of conservative democrates and may vote democratic if the person is a moderate.anging. The Democrats have moved too far to the left this goes for most people I know. I changed my status to Independent. Voted against Bush three times. I will vote against Obama two times as will many of my friends. Obama only recieved 20% of the vote every county that surrounds mine. You will not see the Clinton voters going for Obama if you do it may be only 10%. We don't trust him in fact his inexperince and ideas on how things work scares the hell out me. McCain will win Ohio even though Obama may carry the big city people. This is a fact. It won't change even if Obama comes here.
John, I think you are right……and I think that many democrats wont know what hit them.
what county are you living in?
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