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Clinton Democrats Are Not Voting For John McCain
- Filed under: Democrats '08, Presidential
- Date: May 22,2008
Republicans, pinch yourselves. Stop dreaming. I know you guys love to point to Kentucky and West Virginia as evidence that Barack Obama can't win because white Democrats voted for Senator Clinton. I've got news for you: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton share so many issues it would take me too long to list them. Clinton Democrats are not going to vote for John McCain this fall. Here is why:
Forget The Primary Exit Polls
If you are going to take time out of your schedule to go vote in a primary, you are more engaged than the average voter. Primary voters are more sophisticated. Chances are, many of those voters have heard polling data before, receive Clinton campaign emails, and are very aware of the dynamics of this primary. Clinton Democrats are devoted to her. They understand when a poll is being conducted to collect data so that someone can make the case for Senator Clinton to drop out. "Would you vote for Senator Obama if Senator Clinton dropped out?" A loyal and savvy Clinton supporter is going to say no to a pollster because they don't want to give the media or the Obama campaign fuel to run Senator Clinton out of town. Many of them probably genuinely feel frustrated with Senator Clinton's second place finish at the moment. However, once the dust from the primary clears, it will be the issues that matter most to those Democrats and we will be a united party.
Good News For Obama: People Vote On The Issues
The media and Republicans have gone gaga over exit polls in West Virginia and Kentucky that show 17% (KY) and 19% (WV) of white voters saying race played a factor in their decision. They also point to the fact that Senator Clinton did extremely well with white Democrat voters in West Virginia and Kentucky as evidence of Obama's problem with whites. Their conclusion is that these Democrats are going to throw all their political principles out the window and cast a vote for John McCain this November because of race. I don't believe that is going to happen. At the end of the day, people vote on issues. Senator Obama has real work to do with Senator Clinton's supporters and independents in places like Kentucky and West Virginia to show them he shares their values, but it is very doable and is going to get done. The shared values of Hillary and Barack will become crystal clear once this primary is over and allow our party to win in November.
"This Is Not A Good Year To Be A Republican"
That was Dick Morris' conclusion in an article he wrote for The Hill yesterday and is another reason why Clinton Democrats are going to vote Obama. The title of Morris' article was actually GOP Senate Massacre of '08. In the article, Morris goes through state by state and sites polling that shows Democrats leading in open seats and competing to knock out Republican Senators like Alaska's Ted Stevens, North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole, and New Hampshire's John Sununu. The energy, organization, and message of the Obama campaign is going to help these races and will put more in play as November draws near.
Democrats are going to be united and excited for Barack Obama. Independents are going to be looking for a seat on the bandwagon. Republicans are going to be scrambling to figure out how to start the motors on the swift boats in time for November. I just want this primary to end so we can get to the fun part.
39 Responses for "Clinton Democrats Are Not Voting For John McCain"
The numbers you left out say that in WV and KY upwards of 50% of Clinton primary voters say they will vote for McCain over Obama. These states border Ohio and PA in places and are the same kind of voters, just across state lines.
Say 5% of that 50% is genuine in their feelings. So just 10% of that 50% will follow through, an estimate that is very conservative. Then say that for whatever reason there is drop off of Bush numbers by 3% in a state – tens of thousands of votes in many cases. That is a 2% swing towards Republicans. Think that changes things? It makes a 51-49 win a 51-49 loss. Kerry won PA by less than 2%. He won a couple of other states with less than 2%. Without checking, I know New Hampshire and Wisconsin fall into that category. A 52-48 race goes to 50-50.
Obviously other electoral factors will be in play, but just to dismiss the people that say they will vote for McCain over Obama is naive and foolish at best, wrong at worst.
Lastly, you say " A loyal and savvy Clinton supporter is going to say no to a pollster because they don't want to give the media or the Obama campaign fuel to run Senator Clinton out of town. "
I thought many of the people were just dumb rural hicks. They couldnt think of such tactics.
"Democrats are going to be united and excited for Barack Obama. " Just like all Republicans aren't excited for McCain, the same holds true for Democrats. That is hard for Obama supporters to comprehend, but it is true. McCain isnt the favorite of some Republicans, but he doesnt really scare that many people. The thought of an Obama presidency is downright terrifying to many voters.
One more thing. People dont always vote on issues. Bush was far more likable than Kerry to a majority. Late breakers who were looking for a reason to go to Kerry couldnt get that vibe from him they wanted. Bush actually held his own and won many of them, probably even a majority of them. Not everyone is following the election like we and people here are. Some people dont pay attnetion to Halloween. They know nothing about what is going on now and nothing that happens now matters to them. In my view, they are more likely to go towards McCain.
You also say in that segment of the post "Senator Obama has real work to do with Senator Clinton's supporters and independents in places like Kentucky and West Virginia to show them he shares their values." I dont think they think he shares their values. And that is probably not going to change.
Polling has be wrong in the past. Obama will win because the Republicans have failed miserably. Also, voter turnout is much different in the general election than in the primary. Many independents who did not vote in the primary vote in the general election. Independents will split in favor of Obama in November. Also, Obama is more likeable than McCain. Obama is new, young, and brings change. McCain is old, been around before, and to similar to President Bush on many issues. Democrats will be unitied against McBush. Many Clinton voters will back Obama because they do not want another Republican in the White House.
obama brings inexperience with pocket change. Which is what we all will have after he thru in April. Ho-hum.
Kyle,
You're half right. McCain would be foolish to expect to get a majority of the Clinton primary voters. However, this is not a normal primary season. Whenever you are projecting primary voters to a general election you have to examine the motivations of those voters. For example, the Ron Paul voters may have voted in a Republican primary, but many flocked to him for a message they are not going to get from John McCain. Paul was for very minimal government and his foreign policy thoughts were ignore it and hope the threat goes away. Obviously, folks opposed to winning the war are not going to jump on the McCain bandwagon. On the Democrat side we had voters with very different motivations. Some women voted for Clinton with the thought of electing the first woman president. Some black people voted for Obama for similar reasons. Some white Democrats voted for Clinton because they could now bring themselves to vote for a black man. How much of that will carry over to a general election? Will 15% just not vote out of anger over their candidate losing? I think it would be a far greater likely hood of a huge percentage of Obama's voters not showing if the nomination is taken from him.
Your second item: "Good News For Obama: People Vote On The Issues" was misphrased. It should be "Good News For Obama: Most People Vote On The Likability and Appearance. Since the dawn of television, being able to project likability has been a key factor and that does favor Obama. His strongest asset is people really don't know him or his positions on issues. He has just over the last month or so started to be vetted for the position. McCain's only chance is that people really get to know Obama between now and November. Folks who are politically aware see his warts. 90% of Americans are not following this closely enough to see anything except what the "in the bag" media shows them which has amounted to a hagiography.
The constant insistence that Obama has nothing to worry about is a little off-putting to us non-believers.
He gets trounced 2-1 in a race even though Hillary supporters know it's over and the two candidates' stance on issues is very close. Then polls indicate that many of the voters who showed up to vote against Obama say they might do so again in the fall. But no worries–he's the more "likable" candidate.
With all his talking in circles, Obama has become a "sky is green, grass is blue" candidate and these kinds of Stepford Wife arguments only give middle of the roaders the creeps.
Clinton Democrat here and I will be voting for McCain, as will a few of my family. Sorry but Obama doesn't represent me, and I don't like the idea of more of my income going to taxes
larry d hits the nail on the head in that realm but there are other policy points of his that bother me.
Kyle –
I don't see a ton of Clinton supporters voting for McCain, but I certainly don't see them all going out and voting for Obama either – I think instead you are going to see a bigger drop off in support for the democratic ticket, not necessarily a switching of votes. And if that is the case, for all intents and purposes, a non-vote for Obama will end up being a vote for McCain.
guess on % of non-votes/votes for McCain of Clinton supporters Mike D
this is a great site guys
Kyle–
Many Democrats just dont like Obama. You are right when you say that most will end up voting for, just like most anti-McCain Republicans will vote for him. Some bloggers like you dont yet grasp the fact that Obama is not gettign it done with many. Those who love him really do, but there is not a lot of inbetween.
Your primary has been very divisive and I think you are making a grevious error by taking certain people for granted. Mike D is right, no Obama vote is almost as hurtful as a pro-McCain vote.
Ben, I see what you are getting at, and you somewhat accknowledge it, but there will be other factors and the anti-Obama vote doesnt take place in a vacuum. You too are fooling yourself if Bush numbers might only drop by 3% in states.
Respectfully,
Alex H
Real Chuck here,
This is annoying with this other guy.
Anyway, 5-10% of Clinton supporters will turn to McCain. Well, considering 11% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2004, this is not going to be a big deal.
Especially with all the Independents and Obamacans that Barack will bring in, in key states like Iowa and Colorado.
And it is especially irrelevant to worry when you look at the states where the Clinton supporters are most opposed to Barack: WV & KY. I don't care about them.
But Ben does make a good point that parts of OH (and PA) are the same. Well, those same counties went against Kerry in 2004. Plus, Obama can neutralize that with historic performances in the big cities.
I could not venture a guess – i don't forecast those kinds of things.
It probably won't be a big enough impact to really swing the election away from Obama (he has really managed to stage himself, view it accurately or falsely as you will, as a "purple cow" candidate and i don't see him losing in nov. now unless something big changes). That being said, i think it definitely accurate, and probably not good "business" judgement, to think that all the Clinton supporters who don't cross the aisle for McCain will automatically vote for BHO. The majority, and overwhelmingly enough of them, likely will, but I wouldn't make take that bet at the 1:1 pay-out Kyle is touting.
People are going to vote more on the basis of issues this year. Why? George W. Bush. Over 80% think we are going down the wrong track. Americans thought they knew Bush by Nov. 2004…..a little more than a year later their eyes were opened….they realized it was all a scam…..AND NOW….they know they have to pay closer attention….
Which leads us to the issues….
Iraq and the economy.
Obama and change…or…McSame.
It's really that simple. It's the talking heads and the media whores who are purposely making this complicated….so we stay tuned in to the commercials.
Obama in a landslide.
Good post Kyle.
But other Chuck, WV & Ky are not the only states she won or performed well in. I disagree with with Ben about Mi not being in play and I disagree with you that Pa isn't in play. We will have to wiat until august to get a real gauge on it, but this super performance youare expecting out of the big cities is probably the least of Obamas benefits, since dems histoircally do much better in urban areas anyways.
you are right, august will be a good guage, especially when we have VP picks.
but i feel really, really good right now for Obama.
fair enough
Big thing I notice is the democrats scream "time for a change!" they take over the US house and Senate. Guess what? Dollar bottoms out! Crude, gold, platinum, basically all commodities go thru the roof. The stock market stays the same. Makes one wonder what will happen if they do take the white house. Sends a chill down my spine.
As eager as I am to see the current admin leave the White House, I cannot fathom voting for a person with the limited -actually no – experience as Obama. I would have voted Clinton, but cannot vote Obama. The polls may prove right as Clinton supporters migrate to McCain this fall for this very important reason.
I am one person thinking the same way as cams.
Alex,
I agree with you that our primary has been divisive. I talk regularly with supporters of Senator Clinton who are genuinely mad at me, Obama, and whoever else is getting in the way of her nomination. But, we've got a long time until November. As I said in the post, the issues are on our side and Clinton Democrats will be energized for our party because they care about them too.
There is a fundamental difference between the relationship disenfranchised Democrats and Republicans have with their current nominee. For Democrats, it is the perception of Obama's personality and Senator Clinton's treatment by the media. I cannot wait to hear Obama's first speech once Hillary endorses him. He will pay proper tribute to her and it will begin the process of bringing the party back together in a big way. Mark my words. First speech miracle.
For disenfranchised Republicans, their problems with McCain are much deeper. They don't like his personality and they don't like the issues he has made his career on. McCain – Feingold, global warming, and an exemption on abortion for rape, incest and life of the mother are three big areas of disagreement. I'd much rather have the hurt feelings for the Democrats than the fundamental differences for Republicans.
The dnc needs to be disbanded. We will never vote for Obama and will not fall in line as the general election nears. Goodbye dnc. You have tried to push Obama on us. You have been pushing our our candidate from the beginning. You are now irrelevant. You are useless. We will not miss you.
Democrats for McCain08
Over half of Hillary's democrats will never vote for Obama…We put country first..
Keep living in your denial…
The New Democratic Party,
cannot win with egg heads and African-Americans. OK, that is the Dukakis Coalition, which carried ten states and gave us four years of the first George Bush. quote from Paul Begal..
Middle America will not vote for an out of touch "Elists" with terrorist ties…We will vote for a true American Hero…
Any party that strips voters of thier votes and ignores the Will of the people will become small and less relevant in the long run ….George Soro's just doesn't have that much money…
Hillary's Dems have no respect for Obama and nothing he can do now will change that…no speach which we are all so sick of anyways…
Hillary / McCain for President no one else will do…Nobama
hillary supporters will never vote for obama, it will be mccain all the way.i am one of them along with friends and family.hillary/mccain 08
Count me with the above.
I do not and cannot trust Barack Hussein Obama.
The above commenters say that they were Hillary supporters and would rather vote for McCain, the Republican, than Obama, the Democrat.
In saying that, they admit that they are not truly Democrats. A vote for John McCain is a vote for the fifth hard core radical conservative Supreme Court justice. The one needed to gut many liberties Americans now have.
Cutting the nose off to spite the face doesn't even begin to describe the foolishness behind a Democrat voting for the Republican presidential candidate in 2008.
And Kyle: Very good comment back to Alex.
Reverend I am a democrat when I feel they have the best candidate and I am a republican when they do. I never swore a blood oath to either party and being able to be hypercritical of both parties and the candidates they put forth is a positive.
I hardly consider Roberts or Alito to be radicals, and I would ask you to provide examples of their radical nature. I also don't think Scalia or Thomas are any more extreme on their views than Ginsburg or Stevens are in theirs.
Kyle in reference to Rev's comment to you, my problems with Obama center around his lack of any real executive accomplishment or substantial legislative work to justify his election to president. I find his plans to be short on true feasibility, I oppose his healthcare proposal and thought Clinton's was superior. It has nothing to do with his personality. To be honest his personality is what has won him his support not anything he has done, so it is completely normal for people to not support him if they don't like it, but I think that is a superficial judgement on your part.
The above was by me and not chuck k
if obama was running against Huckabee I would vote for him
i hope this comments isn't dying out-these are all great comments
Fake Chuck,
Good point on Roberts / Alito. They are more to the center than Ginsberg and Stevens.
I will go by Chuck O from now on to prevent any confusion
I agree this is the "way it should be" but it's not true. I know of many many Clinton supporters who will not support Obama. I am not one of them and I'm trying to convince them to change their minds, but they are really, really angry. They need some olive branches from Obama and what would really help the most is if he chose Hillary to be VP.
No olive branch from Obama will make me vote for him.I am a true democrat who will never vote for crook and racist.I never voted for republican in my life ,but i will in nov.so will everybody alse that i know.If the people like I in New York City are not willing to vote for him how do you think will the small town people vote.
The problem you do not get it or you don't want, it is a race issue. I, for example, will never vote for a black man, period. you call me racist, really I don't care, that won't change anything
1. Hiliary Clinton was the target of numberous verbal attacks during her campaign which had nothing to do with her JOB PERFORMANCE. If Obama would have been the target of the same verbal attacks, there would have been a MASSIVE assault by the black population SCREAMING the RACIST card.
2. How come it is considered o.k. and, indeed, expected for black people to support other black people but when white people want to support other white people it is considered racist?
3. Finally, what would happen if…. a woman was to become leader of the most powerful country in the world and if that woman leader did a BETTER job than ALL of the previous MALE leaders?
Democrats are TRAITORS.
For the first time in 25 years, I intend to vote a straight Republican ticket. Go John McCain.
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