Loading ...
Obama Beats Edwards by 20%
- Filed under: Democrats '08, Presidential
- Date: May 14,2008
As the Republican losing streak in special House elections reached three tonight, the probable Democrat nominee for 2008, Barack Obama, took a beat down in West Virginia. With 98% reporting Clinton leads by around 67-28%. That is about 125,000 votes.
Since his big win and almost win in North Carolina and Indiana respectively last week, Obama has been called the certain nominee by all the MSM. He had a week of good press - and by my math, there are 24 weeks until November 4. Of those 24 weeks, Obama will get favorable MSM press coverage for about 23.5 of them. Something will happen for a couple days where even Olbermann and Kyle and the crew can't cover for him. 
Regardless, despite the glowing reviews and proclamations of it "being over" he got trounced Tuesday. He managed to pull in just about 20% more of the vote than John Edwards who has long since departed the scene. That is pathetic, just like the Republicans loss in MS-1 was. Obama continued to struggle with demographics he needs in November. A lot of West Virginia looks an awful like parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. I would like someone to tell me how he can win in the Fall without those two states. Yes, I know mathematically you can figure out a way to do it, but I mean realistically. And you have to understand he certainly won't win Florida if he can't win OH or PA.
It is obvious to me that both decided and undecided Democratic Supers believe that turning off black voters is less of a risk than turning off the rural bitter simpletons in places like Southern Ohio. Maybe. I don't agree with that thinking, but it seems clear that many of them feel that is the case. They feel they can compensate for those losses with the always vaunted new voters, a massive upshoot of black voters (not quite the voting gap here you would think), and a huge turnout among other strong Democrat demographics. It's a gamble, especially when your candidate is an extremist and the most liberal senator in the United States Senate. Obama supporters will say tonight meant nothing. Delegate race wise, yes, you people are right. It really didn't. She is not going to catch him that way. But I don't think limping home and exposing that you are still in trouble with a large segment of the Democratic electorate is the way Team Obama wants to do it.
John McCain has his problems too, but I am not sure they are bigger than Obama's at this juncture. Unfortunately when this Democrat mess is over, we will have to turn to those problems. Back to now though. Mr. Chicago is slated to get drubbed again next Tuesday in Kentucky, and these same questions will be raised again. I would rather be in McCain's shoes, losing portions of the vote to Huckabee and Paul and whomever at this point. If Republicans are able to win in November, when we look back we will probably have to send a thank you card to the media and Obama supporters for dragging him across the finish line and disregarding their better general election candidate.
This summed it up best in my undervalued opinion: As in all of these recent Republican defeats (House races I alluded to before), analysts will be able to point to factors unique to the particular race. But my takeaway is that the Republican brand is in such bad shape that the Dems can win virtually anywhere if they nominate a candidate whose position on key issues is, or can be made to seem, close to that of the Republican. Fortunately, the Democrats will not nominate such a candidate for president.
Also, I am really warming up to Windows Vista. I am on week 2 of it. I hated it for a few days, but it just took some getting used to.
BIG WIN BY DEMOCRATS LAST NIGHT IN MISSISSIPPI
The big political story out of last night's results is Democrat Travis Childers defeat of Republican Craig Davis in a special election held last night in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District. Here is a little background on the district from the National Republican Congressional Committee: "Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District includes the Columbus Air Force Base and two VA facilities. Nearly 12 percent of the people living in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District are military veterans." The NRCC spent $1.27 million trying to keep the heavily Republican district and lost 54% - 46%. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $2 million in the win. On Monday of this week, Vice-President Cheney made a rare campaign appearance to try and help the Republican hold the seat. I hope Ohio Republicans welcome the Vice-President to their districts also. Last night's win helps to illustrate the success of the Democratic message in the wake of the national frustration with the current administration.
31 Responses for "Obama Beats Edwards by 20%"
Were you huffing paint thinner while writing this or just beforehand? I vote for both.
Good post Ben. I agree with you completely.
On the Vista thing: I believe I told you early on that it was not the evil satan being that it was made out to be. Glad you're getting along with it.
Well written post….except for "among other strong Democrat demographics" and "Unfortunately when this Democrat mess is over,"….Democratic or Democratic Party is, as you know, the appropriate word usage.
But let's take your "Obama can't win the general because….see he can't win ignorant white working class voters" theory at face value.
The Congressional seat won in Mississippi last night by a Democrat is in a district that voted for Bush by 62+% in 2004. This is the third special election congressional seat lost by the GOP this year….and last night's was the reddest district yet to be lost to the Democrats. Of course you know this.
Gingrich and others have warned about the November avalanche coming. It's coming. Last night's Mississippi vote sounded the early rumblings of an historic defeat arriving for the GOP.
And in the middle of all these leading indicators pointing to the dessimation of the GOP….you're fighting the good GOP fight by telling us Obama won't defeat McCain because WVA, OH, and PA have some ignorant voters?
Obama will win by a minimum of 10% and will come close to winning 40 states. Last night's Mississippi outcome will lead to GOP panic. The fun is just beginning.
Well written post.
I don't think Ben called any voters "ignorant," Reverend.
No, Tom. No huffing paint thinner last night. But that is a good idea for a future poll question.
I brought up the MS loss before Kyle posted, so I am not trying to ignore it. It is bad. Democrats pulled out a fake, slimy ad the day before accusing the Republican of supporting the Klan (it was false) but it may have put them over the top. Either way, no excuse it was so close. Kyle's candidiate lost by 40% and he didnt mention it.
The MS loss is a bad sign. Obama losing by 40% is a bad sign. Interpret them how you will.
I'll take picking up a Republican Congressional District over losing a primary that isn't going to impact the outcome of our nominating process any day of the week.
ben is using a loss in west virginia and their electoral makeup as reason for obama having problems. WV being a state obama does not need and will not even campaign in
and if anything, west virginia voters are the ones out of the mainstream. it is one of the nations smaller states. it 96% white. it is among the 5 poorest states.
and this is not meant to slam WV needlessly, but i don't think their unique voters are an indicator of anything.
whatever, ben can make whatever points he wants. he needs to come up with talking points to fall asleep at night, because its been a while since he and his side have suffered a big defeat, like they will in november.
and this website loses credibilty everytime it allows this goofball "beware" to spam his racist obama hate on this site.
Here is the difference. I am saying here and my own site that the MS loss was brutal for Republicans. It was. I am saying this is a problem. I dont have to go into 100% defend party / candidate at all cost.
You guys here and elsewhere are either really believing that losing by 40% is no big deal or are so in love with Obama you are just going to say it doesnt matter. You will say it again in one week. There's always some excuse when he loses. Its always the voters fault. It is the fault of Clinton for lying about NAFTA. It is because voters were white. It is because the media talked about Wright. The people are poor and dont understand Obama's greatness. It is the fault of West Virginians for not voting right.
But when he wins……the people are so smart, so not racist, so ready for change, so recpetive to Obama's message.
Ask Al Gore if he WV was a state he "does not need and will not even campaign in." The 5 EVs there would have won him the election, after Dems won there in 1992 and 1996. "a state obama does not need and will not even campaign" is also a state like Wyoming where he won their caucus. Is that win meaningless then? I would guess so. He wont win there or campaign there again.
Obama is running behind - by a lot - white voters compared to what Kerry got in 2004 when you look at %. If you want to dismiss that as just my talking points or whatever, go ahead and do so.
It is ironic that the Obama people who say they wouldnt vote for Clinton if he doesnt get the nomination dont believe polls that say Clinton voters wont vote for Obama if she gets the nomination!!
with this strong showing in West Virginia maybe Edwards can weasel his way onto the ticket. For Obama or McCain.
excellent points ben the obama lovers especially the "reverend" and chuck constantly make excuses, thats all they can do-their guy loses by a ton in his own primary last night and all these two dumb asses can say is "because its been a while since he and his side have suffered a big defeat, like they will in november." Yeah Chuck, he doesn't need Fla, or Ohio, or Pa or MIchigian or Kentucky or almost 1/2 of his own party. You are the ones needing to talk yourself to sleep at night with your delusions. Like Obama is going to appeal to people that don;t already support him-Yeah right. Face it you and your band of liberal misfits don't represent this country, don't seem to understand or appreciate any diference of opinion, and whenever anybody raises a reasonable objection all you got is to recite your fantasy view on things
earth to chuck–earth to chuck-your guy is a runaway loss waiting to happen
very true julie but according to the obama lovers you must be stupid not to be waiting to kiss barack husseins pampered butt, all the while he tells me that I am bitter and thats why I go to church, or I am uneducated and thats why I own a gun. Or maybe it is his crazy mentor, or his far left opinions that make me want to puke whne I think of him representing me
obviously reverend you think the majority of dem voters in Ohio Pa & WV are ignorant then huh?
he doesn't need WV. and he is obviously not going to win it, so who cares about the historical aspect.clinton also won states like Georgia, but that is not going to happen this time.
in fact, every time you have mentioned swing states, WV is never mentioned, so it is just dumb to suddenly act like it matters what happens there. the only way that vote yesterday would have mattered was if hillary was closer in the delegate count. she was not, so it did not matter.
And McCain keeps losing 25% of the vote in elections….should i act like that is a big deal?
farleigh, you need to calm yourself down and look at the polling right now. Obama is beating McCain easily. In the past month, like 21 of 24 polls have Obama up. RCP polling average has him up 4.5%. And the States breakdown just as well for him, too. But don't that stop you from ignoring the polling, getting foaming mad about Obama's middle name, and clinging to his former pastor.
A decent resignation sppech by Dann. No chest thumping, no woe is me, credit to those who have worked hard. Hope he moves on and regains some personal and professional credibility.
your right he doesn't WV, he doesn't need Ohio, He doesn't need anything.
I will make a bet with you. If Obama loses you cease posting both here and on the chief source, and if Obama wins I will. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is, because the sooner you are gone spreading your hate the better.
C'mon Chuck if you are so confident DO IT
Done
All right lets do a screen capture of this.
deal, I am assuming you are a man of your word, and I am a man of mine. At least one of us will find the internet to be infinitely more enjoyable.
Wow, Dudes….throwing down in May over the November election. Great stuff.
to farleigh: It is true that in the rust and Appalachian zones of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky, education levels of the population are lower than in other states.
Are all Democratic voters for Hillary in those states uneducated and ignorant? Of course not. Folks who can't see past the "gas tax holiday" nonsense are unsophisticated in political pandering, at the very least. Others simply voted for their personal choice between two outstandingly qualified candidates.
I do believe that education is the key to tolerance and further reduction of racism in America. Many folks in West Virginia, according to exit polls, included race as a primary reason in who they voted for. High school only voters were also a large portion of WVa's turnout. You do the math.
You say…"all the while he tells me that I am bitter and thats why I go to church, or I am uneducated and thats why I own a gun."
You sound bitter. And it is true that some bitter people own guns and some attend church. Only you know why you own a gun.
What Obama said which you are misusing, understandably, is that some Americans, perhaps you are one, have been so hardened and cynical about politicians' promises to help average working families that they simply dismiss all of those offerings as lies now. Then they proceed to vote in elections basing their votes on other arguments, religious issues, guns, and I would argue, gays, stem cells, abortions, etc.
All of that is true.
A Democratic primary result CANNOT be extrapolated into the same general election result. That would be very shaky, if not shady, thinking. Easy to disprove as well. Think Obama will lose California or New York? Do you? Hey, Obama didn't win either primary.
Finally, Ben is holding his chin up high, and he knows the score this November. I'm proud of the young Republican for that. However, other conservatives are starting to seep bitterness over the GOP's demise. My suggestion would be to take that bitterness out on those responsible….Newt, Tom DeLay, Comander Codpiece and the Dick…to name just a few.
P.S. I didn't read in his comments where Chuck was "spreading hate".
obviously you are not familiar with chucks evil rants whether they be here or on his blog. He calls HIllary supporters evil disgusting, he says McCain is a child killer etc etc. Believe me "reverend" Chuck has said some despicable things that I am sure he would never say in mixed company. Anyways my offer extends to you as well, if you are so confident in the merits of your candidate, by all means please join in our friendly wager, I applaud Chuck for at least having the courage of his convictions.
Newt=not in office Tom Delay=not in office, GWB & Cheney=7.5 months. I don't see McCain in the mold of any of them, but I am sure because he is a republican he is just a evil with you
Newt hasnt been in office for like 10 years. Why dont we talk about Mary Rose Ozkar
"evil rants"
get a grip
and i have called hillarys tactics a bunch of names, not her supporters. the only time i take issue with individual supporters is my shots i have taken at annie, which were all justified
(for example, i have railed for 6 months about that iran vote as the #1 reason she is unfit to be president and annie NEVER addressed it….the same thing happened when bob brought up stuff…. so i have a tough time valuing her statements when she devalues herself by ignoring legitimate issues)
and i would love to learn of some of those "despicable" comments. i am certain, in context, you are getting your self irrationally worked up.
….then again, don't spend your time digging up old comments. if you have something on the top of your mind, fine. but i dont' want you spending more time obsessing and getting more angry over me. its just not good for anyone.
the only thing not good for anyone is that you have a soapbox to stand on and spread your hate. Luckily once obama loses you won't have that.
would you also increase the bet to include getting snipped. I am sure neither one of us wants the other to have kids?
Where can I find Chuck's blog?
thechiefsource.com
it is a site kyle founded and i have contributed to for almost 4 years
and i am a no go on the extension of our bet.
Thanks Chuck, I checked it out. It always amazes me how your pictures make you liberals almost seem normal.
Leave a comment