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Game Over
- Filed under: Democrats '08, Presidential
- Date: Apr 29,2008
I will stick my neck out right now and make this prediction: Barack Obama will not be the next president. It just isn't going to happen. I was pretty sure I was going to come to this conclusion when I first heard the Wright remarks while on my way to Las Vegas back in March. Just needed to see how it was going to play out - and it hasn't been good for the junior senator from Illinois. When I heard Kerry make the "I actually did vote for the 87 billion before I voted against it" remark, I knew it was over, though I still worried myself to death over it. Republicans were going to portray Kerry as a flip flopper, then he made it about 7,000x easier with his own words and he was done. Same thing here. Once Republicans are able to bring down the facade of Obama being a "different kind of politican" he really is just an unaccomplished legislator who just got to Congress in 2004. The way this whole drama has played out, Obama is too damaged now to win in November.
His numbers must be sinking for him to come out today and make the comments about Wright he did this afternoon. Obama had two options when this whole thing came to light. The first was to do what he did today right away and hope to minimize the damage. The other was to try and shift the blame and say it wasn't relevant. He chose the latter and it didn't work. Now he is trying to do what he should have done at first but it is too late and he is digging a deeper hole. First he said he was unaware of Wright's radical statements, which I am assuming that most honest Democrats knew was untrue. Now Obama says Wright has changed for the worse. Any voter who buys this is either as dense as they come or just wants to believe it even though they know the truth. Wright didn't change, and Obama didn't change. People just noticed it. What did Wright say yesterday that was so much different from what we already heard? Nothing. Today, however, Obama decided he had better denounce Wright, which make his whole "groundbreaking" speech in Philadelphia last month a bunch of trash.
Selective editing doesn't make Wright appear extreme, he does it on his own. That is fine. I am not going to sit here and say I am deeply offended by what he says. It is his right to say what he feels; this is America after all. I don't agree with it, but I am not going to pretend I am outraged. Some people are. The outrage in my eyes is that Obama used this guy and his church to start his political career and then when all of this came to light he tried to say he didn't know about it. That didn't work, so now he is trying to distance himself from both Wright and his rhetoric. Wright is obviously an extremist, but in some sense I actually feel a tad bad for him with Obama running over him with campaign bus. Then putting the bus in reverse and going back over him. Then running over him again. Then reversing……
It's over. He can't win. This has just been too damaging. The damage done to the Obama campaign is still being figured out by some, but I already have the answer. Additionally, who knows what Wright is going to say now. He has no allegiance to Obama anymore after today. This is probably one reason why Obama tried to straddle the line from the start of the controversy. He felt that if he didn't attack Wright that he would be keep quiet until after the election. Now, I would guess, Wright will probably be able to place him squarely in church on many of the days in question as he continues what is becoming a precursor to a book tour.
Obama lovers, you don't have to like my declaration that it is over for Obama. I wouldn't expect you to. Just know that it is correct. You can try to blame this on Karl Rove, but it won't work this time. You are nervous. We all know it.
23 Responses for "Game Over"
ATTENTION READERS: Ben thought Ken Blackwell would win in 2006.
Obama will be fine. The Republicans will seek to label Obama a racist, via the comments of Wright, and it will work to some extent. Obama will suffer from the media's refusal to draw the same distinction to lunatics that are close to McCain. But at the end of the day, I don't think people will be voting for John McCain - the man that agrees with GW Bush on every single major issue.
Side Note: Notice how Wright is being used by Republicans.
He is a way to call Obama a racist. And there is no question that is the way the Republicans (and Ben) are proceeding. They see it as their big chance to beat Obama.
Connecting the dots, the Republicans path to beating Obama is to use race as their key issue.
right Chuck-anything you say lunatic, by the way still think germany bombed pearl harbor?
anyways Ben is correct about Obama, and democrats are beginning to line up behind Hillary-notice Dean on MTP & the Gov of NC, as well as Elizabeth Edwards, and soon her husband.
It isn't Republicans who turned this into a race issue, it was a candidate who had as a CLOSE ADVISOR FOR TWENTY YEARS who interjected race here. He is obviously a bigot, and those of us with a conscience don't support bigots. Perhaps you might want to look into that.
Elizabeth Edwards has not endorsed anyone, but feel free to keep misprepresenting people's statements.
and for anyone that claims Obama is a biggot because of the statements made by some 3rd party linked to him, I am certain they will also presume McCain a biggot for his proud ties to certain biggot John Haggee. And unlike Obama, McCain has not denounced the biggoted remarks or endorsement of his biggot buddy.
So at least we know Farleigh will not be voting for McCain or Obama….because he is a man of conscience.
do you know how to spell?
anyways John Haggee hasn't been McCain's spiritual advisor for 20+ years and McCain isn't titling his books after sermons by the guy. Nice try Chuckie but you have to do a little bit better than that to support your hero
So, based on your logic, if a candidate went to a catholic church whose priest had improper relations with altar boys and whose cardinal covered it up, that candidate would then support improper relations with boys and be unfit for public office. I'm sure your answer to this would be a resounding "no." Stick to tearing up your local republican party. At least that offers some insight. Every other post makes you sound like a Rush Limbaugh hack.
Ben You are really out on a limb-a gutsy prediction. I don't think that hardcore Obama supporters cared about the Wright link, because they don't think he shares the same beliefs as Wright. The damage was more likely to affect the opinion of independents, undecided Dems, and maybe some Republicans disgusted with Bush.
Agree with your prediction, but not for the reasons you cited.
It does not follow that, as you say, Obama deciding to denounce Wright now makes his whole "groundbreaking" speech in Philadelphia last month a bunch of trash. And I do not believe that Obama tried to straddle the line on this topic, as you also say. It would have been much easier for him to clearly denounce Wright's comments, as opposed to seeking to give what I found to be a very profound and thoughtful speech on race relations. I really am trying to judge Obama by what I see and hear from him and his campaign, as I do Clinton. Obama is of mixed race and his background is unique. Both he and David Axelrod, his campaign manager, strike me as being sincere and genuine, whereas Clinton and her manager haven't spoken an honest word in over a year. Clinton promoted NAFTA, but now is against it. She's been fighting for health care since her husband's presidency and claims she has the experience and is ready on day one to deliver, but yet she has not delivered for the last 15+ years. She said she was under sniper fire, but that's just a bold faced lie. She wants to count Florida and Michigan in the popular vote, but Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and the candidates agreed not to campaign in those states. That's just dishonest. She says don't disenfranchise the voters of Florida and Michigan, but their democratic parties chose to move their primaries up and they were told as a result, their delegation would not be seated. Lastly, while I understand the notion of momentum in politics, no greater weight is given to those contests that are held at the beginning of the process and those held at the end. Ohio and Pennsylvania were states with demographics suited for Clinton, and not Obama. What if those primaries were held earlier, and those in which Obama prevailed 11 contests in a row, held now - would that be equally compelling? The only thing that all of us should be looking at is the delegate count - that's the system we selected when we started this process, and it's just undemocratic and unfair and dishonest to change now - no matter what Clinton or Terry MacCauliffe (sp?) say. Whoever has the most delates gets the nomination.
Please, if you didn't watch Bill Moyers Journal on PBS then I would encourage you to do so. It can be viewed online. I had fallen for the sound bites on Rev. Wright but after viewing more portions of the sermons; there wasn't a thing to disagree with. The US and many other governments have mislead its people for a very long time. The agendas of many governments is for personal (not country) gains. The US government has its hands in many international affairs but how many of substance. The atrocities in Darfur, China, Iran, Iraq, and many many others have gone virtually incognito by our government except for the billions made by their close cronies. US government hasn't given a damn about the American people and its neighbors for many years. Because a pastor whom has help many decides to speak of those many missteps by our government should not be judged on 5-10 seconds but on the entire speech. Watch America and then ask yourself if it is the truth. You shouldn't be shocked when you give the answer, YES!
Chuck and anonymous are right in the hypocrisy of following this right wing logic.
Akron voter?
you agree with statements like this
the white man invented aids?
Nagasaki & Hiroshima were the causes & 9/11 is the logical effect?
get real
the only hypocrisy is people claiming that they are fair-minded and not racist then supporting Barack Hussein Obama
I'm one who thought Barack's Philly speech was great and a possible precursor to an important campaign for the country, whether Obama won or lost.
Since then, he has merely done what was politically expedient, throwing the pastor under the bus in the meantime. Too bad.
He will lose and become irrelevent, at least for a while, but Wright will sell a million books and join Sharpton as one of our country's foremost race charlatans.
Chuck, the Blackwell comment is pretty funny.
Chuparkoff, well said.
Akron Voter, I watched Bill Moyers, but I don't know how much it helped the situation. I though Jon Stewart did a great job last night of characterizing the weekend of media by Reverend Wright. Overall, I thought Wright has been very self centered in his moves and that his sound bites are fair game.
Ben, these campaigns are full of highs and lows. This Wright controversy has been a low for Obama, but I'd remind you that it is still April and there is a lot of campaign left.
[...] Keeler I will stick my neck out right now and make this prediction: Barack Obama will not be the next president. It just isn't going to happen. I was pretty sure I was going to come to this conclusion when I first heard the Wright remarks while on my way to Las Vegas back in March. Just needed to see how it was going to play out - and it hasn't been good for the junior senator from Illinois. When I heard Kerry make the "I actually did vote for the 87 billion before I voted against it" remark, I knew it was over, though I still worried myself to death over it. Republicans were going to portray Kerry as a flip flopper, then he made it about 7,000x easier with his own words and he was done. Same thing here. Once Republicans are able to bring down the facade of Obama being a "different kind of politican" he really is just an unaccomplished legislator who just got to Congress in 2004. The way this whole drama has played out, Obama is too damaged now to win in November. [...]
Obama is trash, if Hill-dawg doesn't beat him McCain will.
How anyone could honestly believe that AIDS was a government conspiracy is beyond me. That's (almost) as mind-bogglingly ignorant as blaming gays for 9/11 or Katrina. Or that stupid God Hates (insert group) "church" that goes to funerals and protests.
Chuck (not fake chuck - get a new name. You're not fooling anyone):
The Democrats have also made Obama's race an issue, along with Obama and his "typical white person" remark and Mrs. Obama's claim that not voting for her husband wouldn't make her proud of America because, defacto, not voting for him makes you a bigot.
Mike: Would you be in favor of a national primary day since you are not happy with the way the primaries are staggered? Personally, I would if for nothing else than it would mean less campaign coverage in a too-long political season.
Revs Jackson and Sharpton: How do you guys feel about having lost the crown of "Biggest Jerkoff Reverend Who Claims to Speak for Blacks and Spouts Nonsense to Make Dollars"?
If the election is Obama vs. McCain, and if the Democratic 527s decide to play the Swift Boat game, then Wright will be canceled out by attack ads partnering McCain and his spiritual advisor Rev. Hageee.
One said Aids is a government plot, the other said New Orleans was retribution for gay sins.
Obama denounced his pastor, McCain has gladly accepted his pastor's endorsement.
He who wins the independent voters wins this election. Blacks will vote Obama, gay-bashers will vote McCain.
Question is… will independent voters fear a black man via Rev. Wright or fear another Bush-like clone?
Let me just say this.. It's the economy!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't care if Mickey Mouse is running against McCain. He would still be him… The Economy!!! need I say more!!! The Dems do a better job on the economy!!! sorry charley… but a dem will win the white house in November!!! I can't wait!! Bush has made this to easy!!! I live in Virginia.. and guess what this state is up for grabbs … Va is no longer a red state.. bad news for repubs!!!!!!
Ben your prediction is premature. There is a long way to go in this election. In two weeks something could happen to Clinton or McCain that is just as damaging as this or more damaging. However, I do agree that rev. Wright is a liability and should have been dealt with differently.
These are facts: Blacks were used as guinea pigs in the Tuskegee experiment. The highest regions of HIV/AIDS cases in Africa are in the areas where the US of A was suppose to be helping. Using one needle to vaccinate many people tend to help spread the virus. The US invaded countries without being provoked, as has England.
To put these facts into a sermon is not hate mongering but simply stating the truth. Read this article about Hillary but this is the same Hillary which has evaded many investigations dating to the 70s.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/breaking-news-hillary-clinton.php
You are one smart Akron Voter.
What Chuparkoff said.
But this from farleigh…"it was a candidate who had as a CLOSE ADVISOR FOR TWENTY YEARS who interjected race here. He is obviously a bigot, and those of us with a conscience don't support bigots."
So this is your line right? Obama is a bigot? Is that it? Those with consciences, those who will vote Obama, you know, in as president in November, will know full well which political party offers the candidate of bigotry when they push the buttons on the screen. Yep.
Ben - Great post. Keep up the good work.
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