2008 Senate Preview

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: National Landscape 2008
• Date: Mar 18,2008

I have mentioned a few times on my own site about the uphill battle the Senate Republicans face in 2008. Currently, the Senate is controlled by Democrats 51-49, as the two independents caucus with the left. Republicans need either one or two seats to gain back control (only one if McCain wins the White House and the Senate ends up tied at 50), and it is looking almost impossible with only one pickup opportunity out there right now with a plentiful number of seats in peril. John Ensign and his staff at the NRSC have done a good job so far, but the numbers are just stacked against them. The "Frist Freshman" of 2002 are now up for their first reelection. Close Senate races usually break one way or another the last few days towards one party - in 2000 and 2006 it was for the Dems, and in 2002 and 2004 it was for the GOP. Senate races are actually my favorite type of election to discuss and analyze.

Here is a synopsis of races that will be or have the potential to be close.

Alaska: Six years ago, Ted Stevens carried 78% of the vote. Stevens is an Alaskan institution and he should win easily. Except he is now in his 80's and under a corruption probe. Stevens is an embarrassment to the Republican Party and should just retire. He won't, and faces what could end up being a serious challenge from Anchorage Mayor Mark Beigch. As of now, this race is kind of off the radar, but if Stevens is indicted, that changes in a hurry. As Lisa Murkowski proved in 2004, pretty much any Republican can win in Alaska, even with taint.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Colorado: Two term Republican Senator Wayne Allard (one of my favorites) is sticking by his campaign promise to not run for a third term. Liberal Congressman Mark Udall of Boulder is running for the Democrats; former GOP Congressman Bob Schaffer for the good guys. In 2004, Pete Coors and Ken Salazar faced off for the open seat of Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Coors was a lackluster candidate and lost as Bush carried the state by 5%; a tough feat to accomplish. This will be one of the closest races in the country this November. (New Poll today, Udall up by 3).
TOSS UP, SLIGHT LEAN TO DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Louisiana: Probably the only really endangered Democratic seat right now. This looks like it will be a very tough election for Mary Landrieu as she faces off against former Democrat John Kennedy. Landrieu currently has the cash advantage, but she doesn't have the base she did pre-hurricane in New Orleans. She fought tough races in 1996 and 2002, but this will be her biggest challenge yet. Many Republicans still feel her win against Woody Jenkins in 1996 was one that was stolen, and would love to knock her off. If Republicans have the dimmest of hopes to win back the Senate, this seat is a 100% must.
TOSS UP, SLIGHT LEAN TO REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Maine: Democrats have a real fantasy of knocking off Susan Collins. She will be running against Tom Allen, a current congressman in the state's 1st CD. Though not as much as her counterpart Olympia Snowe, Collins is respected in Maine by voters who seem to like her liberal Republican leanings. Allen can win a perfect storm, but that might be his only chance.
LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION

Minnesota: Big matchup between incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. A new poll out yesterday has Coleman up by 10 - other recent polls have shown Coleman or Franken up by small margins. This race will get extra attention because of Franken's celebrity status and because the RNC Convention is in Minneapolis this summer. This will probably prove to be a very close race. I give the slightest of edges to Coleman based on the disaster that ensued the last time Minnesota Democrats nominated someone unusual to a state office - Jesse Ventura.
PURE TOSS UP

Mississippi: Actually two races here. Thad Cochran is safe. Appointed Senator Roger Wicker (who replaced Trent Lott) will be up against former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. In a presidential year, Wicker should win, but appointed senators never have it easy their first go around. Musgrove was not a great governor, but he is one of the best candidates Democrats could have put up in a red state like Mississippi.
LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION

New Hampshire: This is a rematch of the 2002 battle between incumbent John Sununu and former governor Jeanne Shaheen, which Sununu won 51-47%. Most early polls have shown Shaheen up, but Sununu has a fighting chance. Historically, Senate rematches go the way they do the first time around which bodes well for Sununu. The major issue in 2002 was taxes, and Senator Sununu needs to bring this issue back to the forefront in order to win. Sununu also benefits by John McCain being at the top of the ticket; he is popular in the Granite State. In full disclosure, John Sununu's campaign was the first of the 2008 cycle I donated to - I did this last week.
PURE TOSS UP

New Mexico: Incumbent Pete Domenici is not going to run again - he would have been a lock to win. In something I am not sure has ever happened, all three of the state's congresspeople are running for the seat - Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pence and Democrat Tom Udall. Early polls show Udall (cousin of Colorado's Mark Udall) with a lead. Republicans could not avoid a primary, which the Democrats did when the mayor of Albuquerque dropped out to clear the way for Udall. This costly battle could prove to be the difference here.
LEANING DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith is running for his third term. His likely opponent is Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith has a solid reputation in liberal leaning Oregon, and Democrats will have to an outstanding year across the board to knock off Smith. He is about as right as the Republicans can hope for in Oregon, so I have never been upset when he strays from the party on certain votes.
LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION

South Dakota: Tough one here for Republicans. Tim Johnson beat back John Thune in 2002 by just around 500 disputed votes. Johnson is fairly popular in South Dakota, and is a tough target because of his serious health issues at the end of 2006 and subsequent recovery. Had this incident not occurred, Governor Mike Rounds may have made a run against him and would have had a very good chance to flip the seat. Even if he is wrong on the issues, it is tough to go on the attack against a recovering cerebral arteriovenous malformation victim. Johnson won in 1996 51-49% and in 2002 50-49%. He would have been a clear target. But I am glad he is better now and showing constant improvement.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

Virginia: This is the best chance of the various Democratic pickups. Former popular governor Mark Warner will face off against 2008 Republican White House "candidate" Jim Gilmore. Gilmore has raised very little money compared to Warner and faces a major uphill battle. Warner might have to be caught on tape robbing a convenience store to lose this one.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Barring something unforeseen, the following races should go smoothly for the incumbent and/or the party that currently holds the seat.

Republicans: Alabama (Sessions), Arizona* (McCain), Idaho (Craig thankfully not running again), Georgia (Chambliss), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Nebraska (Johanns running to replace Hagel), North Carolina (Dole), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennesee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming (Enzi and Barrasso).

Democrats: Arkansas (Pryor - a major recruiting failure by the NRSC here), Delaware (Biden), Iowa (Harkin), Illinois (Durbin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), West Virginia (Rockefeller).

If all the picks go the way I currently have them, the Democrats will pick up Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. Republicans win in Louisiana, and New Hampshire and Minnesota remain toss-ups. If they split the two toss-ups, Democrats would gain 2 seats. That might be the best case scenario for Republicans in 2008. But who knows. Democrats winning the six seats they needed in 2006 to take back control seemed very unlikely at this point in time two years ago.

* - McCain is not up in 2008. However, if McCain wins the election or resigns his seat, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano (who is a Democrat) by state law has to appoint a Republican to the vacant seat, so there would be no party change. If Obama or Clinton were to win, their replacement would also be appointed by a Democratic governor.