New York Calamity

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Congress
• Date: Dec 15,2008

Story: Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of an American political dynasty, has decided to pursue the United States Senate seat being vacated by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, a person told of her decision said on Monday.

How pissed off would be if you were serving in the U.S. House from New York and you wanted to be a senator? You wait around and wait around and hope the chance comes your way at some point - knowing even then it would be a dogfight for the nomination. Then in 2000, it did. Moynihan decided to retire. A lot of Democrats in New York were waiting that one out, but unfortunately for them some First Lady came in and decided to move there because she wanted it.

Well, that seat is now open again……and the same people kept their mouth shut and stepped aside the first time…….and now someone with no history of holding elected office wants to replace HRC. Sounds like the criticism the left leveled at Sarah Palin, minus the whole she was a governor part. One would have to think New York Governor David Paterson will give Kennedy a long look. I don't think all of the contenders (former Rep. Nita Lowey, Reps. Steve Israel, Greg Meeks, Nydia Velasquez, Brian Higgins just to name a few) will keep quiet this time.

(Note: "Rep." is short for "representative" not "Republican." The media was fond of only referring to Gary Condit as "Rep. Gary Condit" back in 2001 to try and confuse people into thinking he was not a Democrat.)

For Republicans, it is fun to watch, but that is about as close as we will get to ever winning this seat. Giuliani would have an outside chance to win it, but he would never run again (after dropping out in 2000). Peter King would have a glimmer of hope, but not much.

For the latest on Coleman - Franken in Minnesota, this post by Powerline has some good information. It is going to be close, and one side is not going to be happy with the end result.

OH-15: Slowly Crawling Towards Conclusion

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Congress, Ohio 2008
• Date: Dec 5,2008

Columbus Dispatch: About 1,000 disputed ballots that could decide the outcome of a hotly contested central Ohio congressional race won't be counted, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled today.

The state's highest court ordered the Franklin County Board of Elections to throw out about 1,000 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 4 election that contained flaws such as a lack of a signature and identifying information.

The race they are talking about is the only yet to be decided race in the House: Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in the 15th. Stivers currently leads by 594 votes. All the votes from Madison and Union Counties are in, and 37,298 ballots are yet to be counted from the part of the district that is in Franklin. Today's ruling only affects around 1,000 of that number - and none of them could be counted until the dispute was settled, which now it has been.

From what I have heard, the Stivers people aren't feeling all that confident about what is left. The ruling also affects an Ohio House race I don't care about. If you look at the Ohio SoS site, the Franklin vote that is in and tallied: Kilroy 118,212, Stivers 106,267, with 21,369 being split between two other candidates. You can do the math and ascertain yourself that it is probably going to be still close when these votes are counted……which means…..good additional news that if the race is within 0.5% after the remaining ballots are counted……recount!

Now for some quick math. Assuming that exactly 1,000 votes are not counted I broke it down using 27,298 minus 1000 to get 26,298 as what is left to be counted (Dispatch has a typo saying it is 37,298 that is left, thanks to Justin Miller for the clarification there).

However, according to most people and Democrat blogger DPotts of BSB, about 40% of provisonals are from the part of Franklin County part that is part of the 15th, though no one can be sure. We'll say that it is 50% and none of the others are rejected. So that brings the number down from 26,298 to 13,149.

Using the numbers right from the SoS site, and also assuming the provisionals in Franklin break the way in percentage the regular vote went (not a safe assumption, this is just for arguments sake - Kilroy got 48.08% and Stivers 43.22%), here is what I got as Franklin County results:

Kilroy: 6,322 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 124,534 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 136,025

Stivers: 5,683 more Franklin votes = total Franklin votes = 111,950 total three county vote including Madison and Union = 135,535*

* - The SoS site does not seem to reflect the latest numbers that have Stivers up 594 (finalized from Madison and Union Counties); they show him up 149. So add the difference of 445 to Stivers and you get 135,980 three county vote for him - a difference of 45 votes.

All a guess. And if anything the votes yet to be counted, you would think, would skew Kilroy (which is one reason I chose to say 50% of the votes will be from the 15th) by more than her percentage margin of those already counted. So check my math (I am bad at it) or do your own if you think you have a better way. Or if any of my basic numbers are wrong let me know.

Chambliss: Hey, Guess Who Impacted This Race?

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: National Landscape 2008
• Date: Dec 3,2008

He was going to win in any event, but a wise move by Sarah Palin to go down there and campaign for him. Everybody won. Senator Saxby Chambliss said he "could not overstate" Sarah's contribution to his win. Considering he ended up winning by far more than the projections, something or someone must have been responsible for the late surge. Chambliss must be a genius because he ignored all the know-it-alls that said Palin was such a drag.

Chambliss, in his own words:

Not the best of screen shot of Chambliss there by YouTube.

MSNBC's Senator Matthews?

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Congress
• Date: Dec 1,2008

Saw this on Hot Air: According to multiple sources, who confirmed the Tip O’Neill staffer-cum-MSNBC host has negotiated with veteran Obama staffers to enlist in his campaign, Chris Matthews is likely to run for United States Senate in Pennsylvania in 2010. Matthews, 62, would run as a Democrat.

This would be a setback for Obama, as he would lose one of his main television cheerleaders. I still have doubts as to whether Specter will run again…he will be 80 in 2010…but he must be hoping that if he does run to face Matthews. I always used to watch his show on MSNBC, but he just became too much of a shill for me to handle.

I'll believe Matthews is going to run when I see it….these rumors have been floating around forever. Tough to see him run if he wasn't confident he would win and things really can't get worse for the GOP. Also, I think some of the Congresspeople from Pennsylvania would primary him anyways (Allyson Schwartz?). He won't get the same "everyone out of the way" treatment that Franken got in Minnesota.

Prediction: Saxby Chambliss win the Georgia runoff with 53.8% on Tuesday.

The Akron Blogosphere

• Author: Kyle Kutuchief
• Filed under: Local
• Date: Nov 30,2008

For my final post at Politics.Ohio.com, I wanted to give our readers a few blogs for you to check out that I believe do an excellent job here in Akron. Let me preface these references by saying these are a few of my personal favorites. Time is a finite resource and I don't read every blog. I know there are lots of other good sites out there as the Akron blogosphere continues to build its reputation.

TheChiefSource.com - This is my blog. We are proud to support our fellow Akron bloggers and appreciate their work.

EricMansfield.blogspot.com - He's got his pulse on what is happening in Akron and Northeast Ohio. As a news anchor for WKYC in Cleveland, Eric can provide a perspective that most other sites can't because of his access to information and his relationships with people.

Grumpy Abe - This site is written by retired Akron Beacon Journal Columnist Abe Zaidan. The posts are fantastic and loaded with opinion. Of all the sites I read, this one makes me laugh the most. It is a newcomer to the Akron blogging scene and I hope a permanent fixture.

Pho's Akron Pages - Pho knows politics, the law, and Akron very well. All his posts are well written and interesting. He writes on topics happening up the block or on the other side of the world with clarity and wit. It is a fun site to read and has some great comment threads.

Fem Dem In Akron - Katie shares her perspective on events local and national. This past fall she was profiled in the Washington Post for her involvement in the Obama campaign.

LongLiveTheVillageGreen.com - This site is based in Kenmore, Ohio. They provide a unique perspective on their community, public education, and the arts. The site covers a range of topics and regularly posts some great music. God save strawberry jam and all the different varieties.

These are just a few of the sites I check out. If you have a blog here in Akron, please post the address in the comments so I can check it out. Thank you for reading my posts. See you around Akron.

Prediction.

• Author: Ben Keeler
• Filed under: Ohio
• Date: Nov 28,2008

Usually around the end of December I make predictions for the following year. Often they turn out wrong. This one is for 2010, but the motions will start in 2009. Actually, they already have.

If I heard correctly, and someone tell me if I am wrong, that since the late 1960's when the Ohio House expanded to 99, this fall marked the first time the party that drew the lines lost control. That is shocking and speaks to how bad the Ohio GOP has run statewide in the last two cycles. If Democrats can control the Ohio Apportionment Board in 2010, Republicans are going to be in a world of hurt - nothing compared to right now. Democrats probably don't forget how they have been drawn out in the past (see 1991, 2001). Safe to say they will return the favor. Republicans could be in the wilderness for a long time in Ohio if they lose control of the Apportionment Board. A breeding ground for future candidates will take a major hit and many Republicans will find themselves drawn into less friendly districts or even have to face off against each other. The state legislative boundaries will be re-drawn by the five member, partisan, state apportionment board after the 2010 elections. One legislative representative will be on the board for both the Democrats and Republicans. The Governor, Auditor, and Secretary of State control the other three seats. As it stands now, Democrats hold the upper hand.

Hence, Republicans are going to mount an effort like we have never seen to win the Secretary of State post in 2010. Both sides are working under the assumption that both Ted Strickland and Mary Taylor run for reelection and win (right now the first one looking like it is more certain, with Taylor set to be the Democrats big target in 2010 - they really have no one else to go after).

At times the last few months it seemed like the ORP had turned in to an advance team for Jon Husted's all but announced 2010 run for Secretary of State. In the midst of a presidential election, they were more focused on Jennifer Brunner than Barack Obama or other local candidates and races. Brunner deserved a lot of scrutiny. But it was like there were no other races or anything going on in the state. There was a total effort to make her look as bad as possible - more so focusing on her future than 2008 concerns, in my opinion.

Kyle Sisk thinks that Brunner will run for Senate against George Voinovich. I think the party pressure will be far too great for Brunner to abandon her current job when so much is at stake for Democrats to hold that office. Brunner or someone else if Sisk is right, Ohioans are going to see a titanic battle over this job - one that could control the future for both parties in the Statehouse. The Ohio GOP has already signaled as such and the calender hasn't even hit December 2008 yet.

All this is good news for Rich Cordray. We will put our resources into the other three races, leaving Cordray with an easy task to win reelection as AG. There is no doubt he plans on using that office as his springboard to run for governor in 2014. I hope the Republican candidate for Treasurer in 2010 can self fund.